Cross-Tabs for Oct. 2022 Times/Siena Polls in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania

Oct. 31, 2022

Topline results are available here.

Arizona
Georgia
Nevada
Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania

Thinking ahead to the November midterm election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote or not at all likely to vote?
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Almost certain	66%	70%	61%	59%	67%	68%	64%	67%	60%	52%	72%	61%	63%	73%	64%	69%	66%	61%	70%	66%	64%	67%
Very likely	20%	17%	24%	21%	17%	19%	23%	21%	24%	18%	17%	23%	19%	20%	20%	24%	16%	20%	22%	17%	20%	22%
Somewhat likely	5%	5%	4%	9%	6%	5%	3%	4%	6%	11%	3%	6%	5%	3%	2%	2%	10%	6%	3%	6%	3%	5%
Not very likely	1%	1%	<.5%	4%	2%	-	-	<.5%	1%	7%	1%	1%	2%	-	1%	-	2%	2%	-	1%	1%	1%
Not at all likely	2%	1%	2%	4%	2%	2%	1%	1%	5%	4%	1%	2%	2%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	3%	2%	<.5%	8%	1%	1%
[VOLUNTEERED] Already voted	6%	4%	8%	3%	4%	5%	9%	6%	4%	7%	6%	6%	9%	3%	10%	4%	2%	9%	4%	1%	10%	3%
[VOLUNTEERED] Don’t know/Refused	1%	1%	1%	-	2%	2%	<.5%	1%	-	1%	-	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	2%	1%	1%
Number of respondents	620	290	323	53	123	221	205	498	42	55	284	331	282	263	205	225	161	257	280	83	255	338
Percent of likely electorate	100%	48%	51%	11%	20%	35%	32%	79%	7%	10%	40%	60%	46%	42%	35%	36%	24%	45%	44%	11%	42%	54%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following: John Fetterman [FEH-ter-min]
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Very favorable	27%	21%	32%	26%	31%	22%	30%	28%	36%	19%	35%	21%	56%	<.5%	57%	4%	18%	51%	4%	22%	57%	5%
Somewhat favorable	17%	17%	16%	17%	21%	14%	16%	16%	27%	16%	19%	15%	26%	4%	22%	6%	24%	22%	10%	21%	27%	8%
Somewhat unfavorable	8%	9%	8%	9%	8%	10%	7%	10%	2%	3%	6%	10%	4%	12%	5%	8%	13%	6%	9%	15%	3%	12%
Very unfavorable	39%	44%	35%	22%	33%	46%	41%	41%	17%	39%	32%	44%	6%	79%	5%	77%	35%	12%	69%	29%	3%	69%
[VOL] Have not heard of	2%	1%	3%	3%	-	3%	1%	1%	-	10%	1%	2%	2%	1%	3%	1%	<.5%	2%	2%	2%	3%	1%
[VOL] DK/REF	7%	8%	6%	22%	7%	4%	5%	5%	17%	13%	6%	8%	7%	3%	8%	5%	9%	8%	6%	10%	8%	5%
NET favorable	43%	38%	48%	44%	52%	36%	46%	44%	63%	35%	54%	36%	82%	4%	80%	10%	42%	73%	14%	43%	84%	13%
NET unfavorable	47%	53%	43%	31%	41%	56%	48%	50%	19%	43%	39%	53%	9%	91%	9%	84%	48%	17%	78%	44%	6%	81%
Number of respondents	620	290	323	53	123	221	205	498	42	55	284	331	282	263	205	225	161	257	280	83	255	338
Percent of likely electorate	100%	48%	51%	11%	20%	35%	32%	79%	7%	10%	40%	60%	46%	42%	35%	36%	24%	45%	44%	11%	42%	54%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following: Mehmet [mehh-met] Oz
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Very favorable	20%	24%	16%	14%	9%	24%	26%	22%	5%	19%	15%	24%	3%	42%	3%	43%	14%	5%	37%	13%	5%	34%
Somewhat favorable	18%	19%	18%	12%	23%	23%	12%	20%	1%	18%	18%	19%	3%	34%	4%	34%	17%	6%	30%	21%	3%	31%
Somewhat unfavorable	11%	17%	6%	8%	13%	12%	11%	11%	17%	13%	10%	12%	15%	8%	10%	7%	17%	13%	9%	15%	12%	11%
Very unfavorable	39%	29%	49%	39%	42%	33%	44%	39%	62%	25%	48%	33%	72%	7%	73%	11%	35%	66%	13%	36%	70%	13%
[VOL] Have not heard of	3%	3%	3%	9%	2%	3%	2%	2%	7%	10%	3%	4%	3%	2%	5%	1%	4%	3%	3%	5%	4%	3%
[VOL] DK/REF	8%	8%	7%	17%	11%	5%	5%	6%	9%	14%	6%	9%	5%	7%	5%	5%	13%	7%	8%	11%	6%	8%
NET favorable	39%	43%	35%	27%	32%	47%	38%	42%	6%	38%	33%	43%	6%	76%	7%	77%	31%	12%	67%	33%	8%	65%
NET unfavorable	50%	46%	55%	47%	55%	45%	55%	50%	79%	39%	58%	45%	86%	15%	83%	17%	52%	79%	21%	51%	82%	24%
Number of respondents	620	290	323	53	123	221	205	498	42	55	284	331	282	263	205	225	161	257	280	83	255	338
Percent of likely electorate	100%	48%	51%	11%	20%	35%	32%	79%	7%	10%	40%	60%	46%	42%	35%	36%	24%	45%	44%	11%	42%	54%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following: Josh Shapiro [SCHUH-peer-oh]
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Very favorable	30%	24%	34%	22%	23%	25%	41%	32%	32%	18%	37%	25%	56%	5%	59%	8%	23%	54%	9%	15%	57%	9%
Somewhat favorable	21%	23%	18%	19%	29%	22%	13%	21%	22%	17%	24%	18%	26%	15%	19%	16%	29%	20%	17%	34%	22%	19%
Somewhat unfavorable	13%	15%	10%	11%	14%	14%	11%	12%	7%	14%	11%	14%	3%	23%	3%	22%	12%	5%	21%	11%	4%	20%
Very unfavorable	20%	24%	18%	17%	17%	23%	21%	22%	9%	22%	17%	23%	3%	40%	3%	38%	20%	6%	36%	16%	3%	35%
[VOL] Have not heard of	4%	3%	5%	5%	1%	5%	6%	3%	9%	12%	2%	6%	3%	4%	4%	4%	3%	4%	5%	4%	4%	4%
[VOL] DK/REF	13%	10%	14%	25%	16%	10%	9%	11%	21%	17%	9%	15%	9%	13%	11%	13%	12%	11%	12%	20%	9%	13%
NET favorable	50%	47%	53%	41%	53%	47%	54%	53%	54%	35%	61%	43%	82%	20%	78%	23%	52%	74%	27%	49%	80%	28%
NET unfavorable	33%	39%	28%	28%	31%	38%	32%	34%	16%	36%	27%	37%	6%	64%	7%	60%	33%	11%	56%	27%	7%	55%
Number of respondents	620	290	323	53	123	221	205	498	42	55	284	331	282	263	205	225	161	257	280	83	255	338
Percent of likely electorate	100%	48%	51%	11%	20%	35%	32%	79%	7%	10%	40%	60%	46%	42%	35%	36%	24%	45%	44%	11%	42%	54%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following: Doug Mastriano [MAST-re-ano]
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Very favorable	17%	20%	15%	5%	12%	22%	20%	19%	8%	9%	12%	21%	3%	35%	3%	36%	11%	5%	31%	13%	3%	29%
Somewhat favorable	16%	19%	14%	13%	22%	21%	11%	17%	5%	23%	16%	17%	4%	31%	4%	26%	21%	5%	27%	19%	4%	27%
Somewhat unfavorable	9%	10%	9%	16%	7%	10%	7%	8%	5%	17%	9%	9%	6%	12%	5%	10%	12%	7%	11%	12%	5%	13%
Very unfavorable	40%	36%	43%	44%	41%	34%	45%	42%	52%	29%	52%	32%	71%	8%	69%	11%	44%	66%	15%	35%	72%	14%
[VOL] Have not heard of	5%	4%	6%	9%	5%	6%	3%	4%	9%	11%	2%	7%	5%	3%	6%	6%	1%	4%	6%	4%	5%	5%
[VOL] DK/REF	12%	11%	13%	13%	14%	8%	14%	11%	21%	12%	9%	14%	11%	12%	13%	11%	11%	14%	10%	16%	11%	12%
NET favorable	34%	39%	29%	18%	33%	42%	31%	36%	13%	32%	28%	38%	7%	66%	7%	62%	32%	9%	58%	32%	7%	56%
NET unfavorable	49%	46%	52%	60%	48%	44%	52%	50%	57%	46%	61%	41%	77%	20%	74%	21%	56%	73%	27%	47%	77%	27%
Number of respondents	620	290	323	53	123	221	205	498	42	55	284	331	282	263	205	225	161	257	280	83	255	338
Percent of likely electorate	100%	48%	51%	11%	20%	35%	32%	79%	7%	10%	40%	60%	46%	42%	35%	36%	24%	45%	44%	11%	42%	54%

If this November’s election for U.S. Senate were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for? [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?] (Includes leaners)
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
John Fetterman [feh-TER-min], the Democrat	49%	43%	55%	64%	57%	41%	49%	46%	86%	60%	58%	44%	92%	4%	92%	9%	49%	83%	15%	50%	93%	14%
Mehmet [mehh-met] Oz, the Republican	44%	51%	38%	31%	37%	53%	43%	48%	6%	36%	36%	49%	3%	91%	3%	87%	41%	9%	80%	38%	2%	79%
[VOL] Erik Chase Gerhardt, the Libertarian	<.5%	1%	-	3%	1%	-	-	<.5%	-	3%	1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	-	-	2%	1%	-	2%	1%	<.5%
[VOL] Richard Weiss, the Green Party candidate	<.5%	1%	-	-	-	-	1%	1%	-	-	-	1%	1%	-	-	-	2%	1%	-	-	-	1%
[VOL] DK/REF	6%	4%	7%	1%	6%	6%	6%	5%	7%	2%	5%	6%	3%	4%	5%	4%	6%	6%	4%	11%	4%	6%
Number of respondents	620	290	323	53	123	221	205	498	42	55	284	331	282	263	205	225	161	257	280	83	255	338
Percent of likely electorate	100%	48%	51%	11%	20%	35%	32%	79%	7%	10%	40%	60%	46%	42%	35%	36%	24%	45%	44%	11%	42%	54%

If this November’s election for Pennslyvania governor were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for? [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Josh Shapiro [SCHUH-peer-oh], the Democrat	53%	45%	60%	60%	52%	46%	59%	51%	83%	55%	64%	46%	92%	14%	92%	16%	53%	89%	18%	46%	93%	22%
Doug Mastriano [MAST-ree-ano], the Republican	40%	47%	34%	30%	41%	46%	37%	43%	6%	40%	28%	48%	5%	80%	4%	80%	34%	6%	76%	28%	4%	70%
[VOL] Matt Hackenburg, the Libertarian	<.5%	1%	-	1%	1%	-	<.5%	<.5%	-	-	1%	<.5%	-	<.5%	-	-	2%	-	-	3%	-	1%
[VOL] DK/REF	7%	7%	6%	8%	6%	8%	4%	5%	10%	5%	7%	6%	4%	6%	4%	4%	12%	5%	5%	22%	3%	7%
Number of respondents	620	290	323	53	123	221	205	498	42	55	284	331	282	263	205	225	161	257	280	83	255	338
Percent of likely electorate	100%	48%	51%	11%	20%	35%	32%	79%	7%	10%	40%	60%	46%	42%	35%	36%	24%	45%	44%	11%	42%	54%

What is your preference for the outcome of this year's Senate elections?
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Democratic control of the Senate	46%	37%	54%	61%	47%	38%	48%	42%	86%	56%	55%	39%	88%	2%	94%	4%	40%	86%	8%	35%	92%	9%
Republican control of the Senate	46%	54%	39%	34%	42%	53%	45%	50%	10%	42%	38%	52%	5%	92%	2%	92%	43%	9%	85%	42%	4%	81%
[VOL] DK/REF	8%	9%	7%	5%	11%	9%	7%	9%	4%	2%	7%	9%	6%	6%	4%	4%	17%	5%	8%	23%	4%	10%
Number of respondents	620	290	323	53	123	221	205	498	42	55	284	331	282	263	205	225	161	257	280	83	255	338
Percent of likely electorate	100%	48%	51%	11%	20%	35%	32%	79%	7%	10%	40%	60%	46%	42%	35%	36%	24%	45%	44%	11%	42%	54%

Thinking about whether to vote for Democrats or Republicans for Congress this November, what types of issues are most important in deciding your vote? [IF NEEDED: If you had to choose one …]
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Societal issues such as abortion, guns or democracy	34%	27%	40%	48%	35%	31%	33%	34%	40%	42%	44%	27%	57%	11%	56%	15%	32%	53%	16%	31%	61%	13%
Economic issues such as jobs, taxes or the cost of living	50%	58%	44%	35%	48%	52%	54%	51%	42%	52%	45%	54%	29%	73%	30%	68%	53%	32%	68%	52%	25%	71%
[VOL] Both equal	14%	12%	15%	14%	14%	15%	11%	13%	18%	6%	9%	17%	11%	16%	12%	16%	14%	12%	15%	16%	11%	14%
[VOL] Neither	1%	2%	1%	4%	2%	<.5%	1%	2%	-	-	1%	2%	1%	<.5%	2%	1%	-	2%	1%	-	2%	1%
[VOL] DK/REF	1%	1%	<.5%	-	2%	<.5%	-	1%	-	-	1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	-	2%	1%	-	2%	1%	1%
Number of respondents	620	290	323	53	123	221	205	498	42	55	284	331	282	263	205	225	161	257	280	83	255	338
Percent of likely electorate	100%	48%	51%	11%	20%	35%	32%	79%	7%	10%	40%	60%	46%	42%	35%	36%	24%	45%	44%	11%	42%	54%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Strongly approve	15%	11%	18%	10%	6%	10%	26%	14%	29%	14%	14%	15%	30%	-	33%	2%	8%	29%	3%	5%	35%	-
Somewhat approve	27%	24%	31%	28%	37%	25%	22%	25%	39%	38%	36%	21%	51%	<.5%	51%	4%	27%	46%	8%	25%	65%	-
Somewhat disapprove	8%	9%	8%	17%	14%	5%	5%	9%	6%	7%	9%	7%	9%	5%	6%	5%	15%	9%	5%	18%	-	15%
Strongly disapprove	46%	53%	40%	29%	40%	56%	46%	50%	6%	39%	36%	52%	4%	95%	5%	88%	42%	11%	83%	40%	-	85%
[VOL] DK/REF	4%	3%	4%	15%	3%	4%	1%	3%	20%	2%	4%	4%	6%	-	4%	1%	8%	5%	1%	12%	-	-
NET approve	42%	35%	48%	38%	43%	35%	48%	39%	67%	52%	50%	36%	82%	<.5%	84%	6%	35%	75%	11%	31%	100%	-
NET disapprove	54%	62%	48%	47%	54%	61%	51%	59%	13%	46%	46%	60%	13%	100%	12%	93%	57%	20%	88%	58%	-	100%
Number of respondents	620	290	323	53	123	221	205	498	42	55	284	331	282	263	205	225	161	257	280	83	255	338
Percent of likely electorate	100%	48%	51%	11%	20%	35%	32%	79%	7%	10%	40%	60%	46%	42%	35%	36%	24%	45%	44%	11%	42%	54%

Thinking about John Fetterman, the candidate for U.S. Senate, do you think:
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
John Fetterman is healthy enough to perform the duties of his job	48%	42%	54%	48%	51%	48%	48%	49%	56%	41%	59%	42%	83%	12%	83%	13%	48%	79%	16%	56%	85%	21%
John Fetterman is not healthy enough to perform the duties of his job	35%	41%	31%	21%	32%	36%	42%	39%	11%	31%	27%	42%	5%	70%	5%	71%	30%	9%	65%	24%	4%	61%
[VOL] DK/REF	16%	17%	15%	31%	17%	16%	10%	12%	33%	28%	15%	17%	11%	18%	12%	16%	21%	12%	20%	20%	10%	18%
Number of respondents	620	290	323	53	123	221	205	498	42	55	284	331	282	263	205	225	161	257	280	83	255	338
Percent of likely electorate	100%	48%	51%	11%	20%	35%	32%	79%	7%	10%	40%	60%	46%	42%	35%	36%	24%	45%	44%	11%	42%	54%

Would you rather vote for a candidate who thinks abortion should be …
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Always legal	29%	23%	33%	51%	35%	25%	19%	27%	50%	32%	34%	25%	51%	4%	53%	7%	28%	47%	10%	28%	52%	8%
Mostly legal	26%	27%	27%	22%	23%	30%	27%	28%	21%	25%	28%	25%	30%	23%	27%	23%	30%	28%	24%	31%	28%	25%
Mostly illegal	17%	19%	15%	9%	18%	17%	19%	19%	5%	15%	17%	17%	5%	32%	5%	30%	15%	7%	28%	10%	4%	28%
Always illegal	5%	5%	5%	3%	3%	6%	7%	5%	5%	6%	4%	6%	1%	11%	2%	11%	2%	2%	9%	3%	1%	9%
It does not matter either way	18%	22%	15%	14%	19%	17%	20%	18%	19%	13%	13%	22%	10%	25%	11%	24%	21%	12%	23%	24%	13%	24%
[VOL] DK/REF	5%	4%	5%	-	3%	4%	8%	3%	-	10%	3%	5%	3%	5%	2%	5%	4%	4%	6%	5%	3%	5%
NET legal	55%	50%	59%	73%	57%	56%	46%	54%	71%	57%	63%	50%	81%	27%	80%	30%	58%	75%	34%	59%	80%	33%
NET illegal	22%	24%	21%	13%	21%	23%	26%	24%	9%	20%	21%	23%	6%	43%	7%	41%	17%	9%	37%	12%	5%	37%
Number of respondents	620	290	323	53	123	221	205	498	42	55	284	331	282	263	205	225	161	257	280	83	255	338
Percent of likely electorate	100%	48%	51%	11%	20%	35%	32%	79%	7%	10%	40%	60%	46%	42%	35%	36%	24%	45%	44%	11%	42%	54%

Would you rather vote for a candidate who thinks …
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Joe Biden won the 2020 election	47%	42%	50%	57%	56%	37%	49%	45%	69%	50%	60%	37%	86%	5%	83%	14%	47%	77%	16%	45%	88%	14%
Donald Trump won the 2020 election	15%	15%	15%	5%	9%	15%	22%	17%	4%	10%	8%	19%	<.5%	33%	1%	34%	7%	4%	28%	3%	1%	27%
It does not matter either way	36%	41%	32%	39%	33%	47%	25%	37%	24%	33%	29%	41%	11%	60%	13%	51%	44%	16%	54%	48%	9%	57%
[VOL] DK/REF	2%	2%	3%	-	2%	2%	4%	1%	3%	7%	3%	2%	3%	2%	3%	2%	2%	3%	2%	4%	3%	2%
Number of respondents	620	290	323	53	123	221	205	498	42	55	284	331	282	263	205	225	161	257	280	83	255	338
Percent of likely electorate	100%	48%	51%	11%	20%	35%	32%	79%	7%	10%	40%	60%	46%	42%	35%	36%	24%	45%	44%	11%	42%	54%

In the past 12 months, did you spend any time volunteering for any organization or association?
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Yes	28%	25%	32%	18%	28%	33%	26%	28%	32%	30%	39%	22%	30%	27%	30%	27%	28%	29%	29%	24%	31%	27%
No	71%	74%	68%	82%	72%	66%	74%	72%	68%	70%	61%	78%	70%	72%	70%	73%	71%	71%	71%	73%	69%	73%
[VOL] DK/REF	<.5%	1%	-	-	-	1%	-	<.5%	-	-	-	<.5%	-	1%	-	-	1%	-	<.5%	2%	<.5%	<.5%
Number of respondents	620	290	323	53	123	221	205	498	42	55	284	331	282	263	205	225	161	257	280	83	255	338
Percent of likely electorate	100%	48%	51%	11%	20%	35%	32%	79%	7%	10%	40%	60%	46%	42%	35%	36%	24%	45%	44%	11%	42%	54%

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 620 likely voters in Pennsylvania was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones on Oct. 24-26, 2022. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect is 1.3. Overall, 65 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone, and less than half a percent of all interviews were conducted in Spanish.

Party I.D. is self-identified party, without leaners; independents only include self-identified independents. Party registration is the respondent’s party as listed on the voter file.

Nevada

Thinking ahead to the November midterm election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote or not at all likely to vote?
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Almost certain	53%	53%	53%	22%	53%	62%	54%	58%	42%	47%	63%	48%	58%	58%	55%	53%	55%	56%	58%	44%	60%	50%
Very likely	29%	27%	31%	33%	24%	29%	30%	28%	28%	31%	26%	30%	28%	29%	29%	33%	23%	28%	30%	29%	25%	32%
Somewhat likely	6%	5%	7%	20%	13%	1%	2%	2%	14%	9%	2%	8%	5%	2%	4%	2%	11%	5%	3%	11%	5%	6%
Not very likely	2%	3%	2%	11%	4%	1%	<.5%	2%	3%	3%	1%	3%	1%	2%	1%	2%	4%	1%	2%	5%	1%	3%
Not at all likely	3%	3%	3%	9%	3%	1%	1%	2%	7%	2%	2%	3%	1%	2%	2%	2%	4%	1%	1%	7%	1%	3%
[VOLUNTEERED] Already voted	6%	8%	4%	4%	1%	5%	11%	6%	6%	4%	5%	6%	7%	6%	8%	6%	3%	8%	5%	3%	7%	5%
[VOLUNTEERED] Don’t know/Refused	1%	1%	1%	<.5%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	3%	<.5%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	<.5%	1%	1%	2%	1%	1%
Number of respondents	885	464	415	114	143	280	302	515	197	146	355	520	395	345	300	254	274	332	308	245	354	489
Percent of likely electorate	100%	51%	48%	11%	20%	35%	29%	60%	21%	17%	34%	64%	43%	38%	32%	30%	32%	35%	35%	30%	38%	58%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following: Catherine Cortez Masto
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Very favorable	26%	21%	32%	11%	19%	23%	41%	29%	19%	24%	32%	23%	58%	1%	60%	3%	17%	60%	4%	14%	60%	6%
Somewhat favorable	13%	14%	13%	22%	15%	14%	7%	12%	16%	16%	14%	13%	21%	4%	21%	5%	15%	21%	4%	16%	24%	6%
Somewhat unfavorable	13%	14%	11%	16%	14%	17%	5%	11%	17%	13%	11%	14%	9%	15%	6%	12%	18%	6%	13%	20%	6%	17%
Very unfavorable	36%	39%	33%	27%	37%	36%	40%	38%	31%	29%	33%	37%	4%	73%	6%	69%	36%	5%	72%	30%	4%	58%
[VOL] Have not heard of	5%	6%	4%	8%	7%	5%	3%	4%	8%	6%	4%	6%	2%	4%	2%	7%	5%	2%	4%	9%	2%	6%
[VOL] DK/REF	7%	7%	7%	17%	8%	4%	5%	5%	8%	12%	6%	8%	6%	4%	5%	5%	9%	6%	5%	11%	3%	7%
NET favorable	39%	35%	44%	32%	34%	38%	48%	41%	36%	40%	46%	36%	79%	4%	81%	7%	32%	80%	7%	30%	84%	12%
NET unfavorable	49%	53%	44%	43%	51%	53%	45%	50%	48%	42%	44%	51%	13%	88%	12%	81%	54%	11%	84%	50%	10%	75%
Number of respondents	885	464	415	114	143	280	302	515	197	146	355	520	395	345	300	254	274	332	308	245	354	489
Percent of likely electorate	100%	51%	48%	11%	20%	35%	29%	60%	21%	17%	34%	64%	43%	38%	32%	30%	32%	35%	35%	30%	38%	58%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following: Adam Laxalt [lack-salt]
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Very favorable	23%	27%	19%	7%	19%	25%	30%	25%	22%	15%	20%	25%	4%	49%	3%	48%	20%	4%	48%	16%	3%	37%
Somewhat favorable	16%	18%	15%	16%	19%	19%	12%	16%	14%	21%	18%	16%	5%	26%	5%	27%	18%	3%	28%	17%	7%	23%
Somewhat unfavorable	12%	11%	13%	23%	13%	11%	9%	12%	17%	7%	10%	13%	14%	6%	17%	5%	14%	15%	8%	13%	13%	11%
Very unfavorable	32%	28%	37%	25%	30%	32%	37%	32%	25%	39%	39%	29%	63%	6%	63%	6%	27%	65%	4%	27%	68%	11%
[VOL] Have not heard of	6%	7%	5%	14%	11%	4%	3%	6%	8%	8%	4%	7%	3%	5%	3%	7%	10%	3%	6%	11%	3%	8%
[VOL] DK/REF	10%	9%	11%	15%	8%	9%	9%	8%	14%	10%	9%	10%	10%	8%	9%	7%	13%	10%	5%	16%	6%	10%
NET favorable	39%	45%	34%	23%	37%	44%	42%	41%	36%	36%	38%	41%	9%	75%	8%	76%	38%	7%	77%	33%	10%	61%
NET unfavorable	44%	39%	50%	48%	43%	43%	46%	45%	42%	46%	49%	42%	78%	12%	80%	10%	40%	80%	13%	40%	81%	22%
Number of respondents	885	464	415	114	143	280	302	515	197	146	355	520	395	345	300	254	274	332	308	245	354	489
Percent of likely electorate	100%	51%	48%	11%	20%	35%	29%	60%	21%	17%	34%	64%	43%	38%	32%	30%	32%	35%	35%	30%	38%	58%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following: Steve Sisolak [sis-o-lack]
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Very favorable	24%	20%	28%	12%	16%	21%	37%	25%	21%	24%	26%	23%	50%	4%	55%	5%	12%	53%	2%	15%	55%	6%
Somewhat favorable	16%	18%	15%	21%	17%	18%	13%	15%	14%	26%	18%	16%	27%	4%	25%	5%	19%	25%	5%	20%	29%	8%
Somewhat unfavorable	9%	8%	10%	19%	8%	11%	4%	9%	13%	5%	8%	10%	6%	8%	5%	10%	12%	4%	11%	12%	3%	12%
Very unfavorable	39%	43%	35%	21%	47%	42%	40%	42%	35%	33%	39%	39%	8%	76%	6%	71%	42%	7%	74%	35%	5%	64%
[VOL] Have not heard of	4%	5%	4%	10%	6%	3%	2%	4%	8%	2%	3%	5%	1%	4%	2%	5%	7%	1%	5%	8%	2%	5%
[VOL] DK/REF	7%	7%	8%	16%	7%	5%	5%	6%	9%	10%	7%	7%	8%	4%	8%	4%	9%	9%	3%	10%	6%	5%
NET favorable	40%	38%	43%	34%	33%	39%	50%	40%	35%	50%	44%	39%	77%	8%	80%	10%	31%	78%	8%	35%	84%	14%
NET unfavorable	48%	51%	45%	40%	54%	52%	44%	50%	48%	38%	47%	49%	14%	85%	11%	81%	53%	12%	85%	47%	8%	76%
Number of respondents	885	464	415	114	143	280	302	515	197	146	355	520	395	345	300	254	274	332	308	245	354	489
Percent of likely electorate	100%	51%	48%	11%	20%	35%	29%	60%	21%	17%	34%	64%	43%	38%	32%	30%	32%	35%	35%	30%	38%	58%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following: Joe Lombardo
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Very favorable	21%	23%	19%	11%	21%	21%	26%	22%	18%	22%	21%	22%	7%	39%	7%	40%	18%	6%	39%	17%	6%	32%
Somewhat favorable	21%	25%	18%	17%	22%	27%	18%	22%	22%	18%	20%	22%	10%	36%	7%	34%	25%	7%	35%	21%	9%	31%
Somewhat unfavorable	12%	13%	11%	14%	9%	14%	9%	12%	12%	12%	13%	11%	14%	7%	18%	4%	12%	16%	7%	12%	15%	10%
Very unfavorable	29%	25%	34%	24%	27%	26%	38%	30%	28%	31%	32%	27%	55%	9%	54%	9%	23%	55%	8%	25%	59%	12%
[VOL] Have not heard of	6%	6%	5%	10%	11%	4%	3%	6%	7%	6%	4%	7%	4%	4%	3%	6%	8%	3%	5%	10%	3%	7%
[VOL] DK/REF	11%	8%	12%	26%	10%	8%	6%	9%	13%	12%	10%	11%	10%	6%	11%	6%	14%	12%	6%	14%	8%	9%
NET favorable	42%	48%	37%	27%	43%	47%	44%	44%	39%	39%	40%	44%	17%	75%	13%	74%	43%	13%	74%	38%	15%	62%
NET unfavorable	41%	38%	46%	38%	36%	40%	47%	42%	41%	43%	45%	39%	69%	16%	72%	14%	35%	71%	15%	37%	74%	22%
Number of respondents	885	464	415	114	143	280	302	515	197	146	355	520	395	345	300	254	274	332	308	245	354	489
Percent of likely electorate	100%	51%	48%	11%	20%	35%	29%	60%	21%	17%	34%	64%	43%	38%	32%	30%	32%	35%	35%	30%	38%	58%

If this November’s election for U.S. Senate were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for? [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?] (Includes leaners)
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Catherine Cortez Masto, the Democrat	47%	39%	55%	55%	44%	41%	52%	44%	51%	56%	50%	46%	90%	3%	93%	5%	40%	94%	6%	41%	95%	16%
Adam Laxalt [lack-salt], the Republican	47%	54%	41%	37%	46%	54%	46%	52%	43%	36%	43%	49%	6%	93%	4%	94%	48%	3%	92%	45%	3%	77%
[VOL] Barry Rubinson, the Independent American Party candidate	1%	1%	1%	-	3%	<.5%	-	1%	-	2%	1%	1%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	-	2%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	1%
[VOL] Barry Lindemann, the independent	<.5%	<.5%	-	-	1%	<.5%	-	<.5%	-	-	1%	-	<.5%	<.5%	-	-	<.5%	-	1%	<.5%	-	<.5%
[VOL] Neil Scott, the Libertarian	1%	1%	-	<.5%	-	2%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	-	-	1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	-	2%	-	-	2%	-	1%
[VOL] Not sure/Undecided	1%	2%	1%	3%	3%	1%	-	1%	3%	1%	2%	1%	2%	<.5%	-	<.5%	4%	-	<.5%	5%	<.5%	2%
[VOL] DK/REF	3%	3%	3%	5%	3%	2%	1%	1%	3%	5%	4%	2%	1%	2%	2%	1%	4%	2%	1%	5%	1%	3%
Number of respondents	885	464	415	114	143	280	302	515	197	146	355	520	395	345	300	254	274	332	308	245	354	489
Percent of likely electorate	100%	51%	48%	11%	20%	35%	29%	60%	21%	17%	34%	64%	43%	38%	32%	30%	32%	35%	35%	30%	38%	58%

If this November’s election for Nevada's governor were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for? [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Steve Sisolak [sis-o-lack], the Democrat	45%	40%	51%	53%	37%	42%	52%	42%	47%	55%	48%	44%	86%	5%	92%	6%	37%	92%	4%	40%	91%	16%
Joe Lombardo, the Republican	49%	55%	43%	38%	54%	53%	47%	53%	44%	38%	47%	50%	9%	92%	6%	92%	53%	5%	92%	49%	7%	78%
[VOL] Edward Bridges II, the Independent American Party candidate	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	-	<.5%	-	1%	-	-	1%	<.5%	-	1%	-	-	1%	-	1%	<.5%	-	<.5%
[VOL] Brandon Davis, the Libertarian	<.5%	<.5%	-	-	1%	-	<.5%	<.5%	1%	-	-	<.5%	<.5%	<.5%	-	<.5%	-	-	<.5%	<.5%	-	<.5%
[VOL] Not sure/Undecided	2%	2%	2%	3%	4%	1%	<.5%	1%	5%	<.5%	2%	2%	2%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	5%	1%	<.5%	5%	1%	2%
[VOL] DK/REF	3%	2%	4%	4%	4%	3%	1%	2%	3%	6%	3%	3%	2%	1%	1%	1%	4%	2%	2%	5%	1%	3%
Number of respondents	885	464	415	114	143	280	302	515	197	146	355	520	395	345	300	254	274	332	308	245	354	489
Percent of likely electorate	100%	51%	48%	11%	20%	35%	29%	60%	21%	17%	34%	64%	43%	38%	32%	30%	32%	35%	35%	30%	38%	58%

If this November’s election for Nevada's secretary of state were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for? [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Cisco Aguilar [AG-U-lar], the Democrat	44%	38%	49%	50%	38%	40%	49%	42%	44%	51%	50%	40%	83%	3%	90%	5%	35%	87%	7%	37%	85%	18%
Jim Marchant, the Republican	41%	46%	36%	33%	38%	48%	40%	45%	37%	31%	37%	43%	5%	84%	2%	86%	38%	4%	84%	34%	2%	68%
[VOL] Janine Hansen, the Independent American Party candidate	<.5%	-	1%	-	1%	-	-	-	-	2%	1%	-	1%	-	-	-	1%	-	-	1%	-	-
[VOL] Ross Crane, the Libertarian	<.5%	<.5%	-	-	-	-	<.5%	<.5%	-	-	-	<.5%	<.5%	-	-	-	-	-	-	<.5%	-	<.5%
[VOL] Not sure/Undecided	7%	7%	6%	6%	11%	5%	6%	6%	10%	5%	6%	7%	6%	6%	4%	3%	13%	5%	4%	11%	6%	7%
[VOL] DK/REF	8%	9%	8%	11%	11%	7%	6%	7%	9%	11%	6%	9%	6%	7%	4%	6%	14%	4%	5%	17%	8%	8%
Number of respondents	885	464	415	114	143	280	302	515	197	146	355	520	395	345	300	254	274	332	308	245	354	489
Percent of likely electorate	100%	51%	48%	11%	20%	35%	29%	60%	21%	17%	34%	64%	43%	38%	32%	30%	32%	35%	35%	30%	38%	58%

What is your preference for the outcome of this year's Senate elections?
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Democratic control of the Senate	44%	36%	52%	55%	39%	38%	50%	41%	48%	49%	49%	41%	86%	2%	94%	1%	35%	91%	3%	37%	91%	14%
Republican control of the Senate	48%	55%	41%	36%	47%	54%	48%	52%	44%	38%	45%	49%	7%	93%	4%	97%	47%	6%	93%	43%	3%	79%
[VOL] DK/REF	8%	10%	6%	9%	14%	8%	2%	7%	8%	13%	6%	9%	7%	5%	2%	3%	18%	3%	4%	20%	6%	7%
Number of respondents	885	464	415	114	143	280	302	515	197	146	355	520	395	345	300	254	274	332	308	245	354	489
Percent of likely electorate	100%	51%	48%	11%	20%	35%	29%	60%	21%	17%	34%	64%	43%	38%	32%	30%	32%	35%	35%	30%	38%	58%

Thinking about whether to vote for Democrats or Republicans for Congress this November, what types of issues are most important in deciding your vote? [IF NEEDED: If you had to choose one …]
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Societal issues such as abortion, guns or democracy	35%	33%	36%	46%	30%	30%	38%	37%	29%	33%	42%	31%	57%	12%	57%	15%	32%	56%	15%	33%	60%	19%
Economic issues such as jobs, taxes or the cost of living	51%	53%	50%	48%	58%	55%	46%	46%	60%	57%	45%	55%	29%	73%	28%	69%	58%	27%	72%	56%	26%	69%
[VOL] Both equal	11%	11%	10%	3%	9%	13%	13%	13%	8%	9%	9%	12%	13%	11%	12%	12%	7%	14%	11%	7%	12%	10%
[VOL] Neither	1%	1%	1%	2%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	1%	-	2%	<.5%	1%	2%	-	1%	2%	-	1%	2%	-	1%
[VOL] DK/REF	2%	2%	2%	1%	2%	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	2%	2%	1%	3%	3%	3%	1%	3%	2%	2%	2%	2%
Number of respondents	885	464	415	114	143	280	302	515	197	146	355	520	395	345	300	254	274	332	308	245	354	489
Percent of likely electorate	100%	51%	48%	11%	20%	35%	29%	60%	21%	17%	34%	64%	43%	38%	32%	30%	32%	35%	35%	30%	38%	58%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Strongly approve	19%	16%	21%	3%	13%	18%	31%	18%	12%	29%	24%	16%	41%	1%	48%	1%	8%	47%	2%	6%	50%	-
Somewhat approve	19%	18%	20%	25%	21%	17%	17%	19%	19%	17%	20%	18%	38%	1%	34%	2%	21%	32%	2%	23%	50%	-
Somewhat disapprove	10%	9%	12%	20%	13%	8%	7%	8%	17%	10%	7%	12%	10%	2%	10%	5%	15%	10%	3%	19%	-	18%
Strongly disapprove	48%	53%	42%	38%	50%	55%	43%	51%	47%	37%	44%	50%	7%	94%	5%	92%	50%	6%	91%	45%	-	82%
[VOL] DK/REF	4%	4%	5%	14%	4%	1%	3%	3%	4%	7%	4%	4%	4%	2%	3%	2%	6%	5%	2%	6%	-	-
NET approve	38%	34%	41%	28%	34%	35%	47%	38%	31%	46%	45%	34%	79%	2%	82%	2%	29%	79%	4%	30%	100%	-
NET disapprove	58%	62%	54%	58%	62%	64%	50%	59%	65%	47%	51%	62%	17%	97%	15%	96%	65%	16%	94%	64%	-	100%
Number of respondents	885	464	415	114	143	280	302	515	197	146	355	520	395	345	300	254	274	332	308	245	354	489
Percent of likely electorate	100%	51%	48%	11%	20%	35%	29%	60%	21%	17%	34%	64%	43%	38%	32%	30%	32%	35%	35%	30%	38%	58%

Would you rather vote for a candidate who thinks abortion should be …
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Always legal	35%	28%	41%	39%	32%	31%	38%	34%	31%	39%	40%	32%	62%	9%	62%	11%	31%	63%	9%	31%	65%	15%
Mostly legal	20%	19%	21%	23%	20%	21%	19%	20%	21%	23%	21%	20%	20%	19%	17%	17%	23%	20%	19%	22%	16%	21%
Mostly illegal	17%	19%	15%	18%	20%	20%	13%	19%	14%	16%	17%	18%	4%	32%	5%	29%	20%	3%	33%	15%	5%	26%
Always illegal	5%	3%	6%	8%	3%	5%	4%	3%	9%	4%	3%	5%	4%	5%	7%	5%	3%	6%	5%	3%	4%	5%
It does not matter either way	18%	24%	11%	11%	21%	17%	18%	17%	22%	14%	14%	20%	7%	27%	5%	29%	19%	5%	25%	24%	6%	25%
[VOL] DK/REF	6%	6%	6%	1%	3%	6%	8%	7%	4%	3%	5%	5%	3%	8%	4%	9%	3%	3%	8%	6%	3%	7%
NET legal	54%	48%	62%	62%	53%	52%	57%	54%	51%	62%	61%	52%	82%	28%	79%	28%	54%	83%	28%	53%	82%	37%
NET illegal	22%	23%	22%	26%	23%	25%	17%	22%	23%	21%	21%	23%	8%	37%	12%	34%	23%	9%	39%	17%	9%	31%
Number of respondents	885	464	415	114	143	280	302	515	197	146	355	520	395	345	300	254	274	332	308	245	354	489
Percent of likely electorate	100%	51%	48%	11%	20%	35%	29%	60%	21%	17%	34%	64%	43%	38%	32%	30%	32%	35%	35%	30%	38%	58%

Would you rather vote for a candidate who thinks …
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Joe Biden won the 2020 election	41%	38%	45%	38%	39%	38%	48%	44%	32%	44%	54%	35%	83%	3%	85%	3%	34%	83%	5%	36%	88%	11%
Donald Trump won the 2020 election	21%	21%	21%	17%	18%	22%	23%	23%	20%	15%	14%	25%	1%	44%	3%	42%	20%	3%	38%	22%	3%	34%
It does not matter either way	34%	37%	31%	45%	39%	37%	23%	28%	46%	41%	30%	36%	14%	47%	11%	48%	42%	13%	51%	37%	8%	49%
[VOL] DK/REF	4%	5%	3%	<.5%	4%	3%	6%	5%	2%	<.5%	3%	4%	2%	6%	1%	7%	3%	2%	6%	4%	1%	5%
Number of respondents	885	464	415	114	143	280	302	515	197	146	355	520	395	345	300	254	274	332	308	245	354	489
Percent of likely electorate	100%	51%	48%	11%	20%	35%	29%	60%	21%	17%	34%	64%	43%	38%	32%	30%	32%	35%	35%	30%	38%	58%

And thinking about your own personal finances, would you say that your personal financial situation is in excellent shape, good shape, only fair shape or poor shape?
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Excellent	13%	14%	12%	9%	11%	13%	15%	15%	7%	15%	20%	9%	17%	9%	15%	6%	15%	17%	10%	12%	20%	9%
Good	37%	37%	36%	29%	35%	39%	39%	42%	32%	27%	40%	35%	42%	35%	43%	38%	31%	41%	37%	31%	42%	33%
Only fair	31%	30%	31%	40%	37%	30%	25%	27%	39%	33%	29%	32%	27%	33%	25%	35%	33%	27%	34%	31%	24%	35%
Poor	17%	16%	18%	18%	17%	16%	15%	14%	21%	22%	9%	21%	11%	20%	13%	19%	19%	11%	16%	24%	13%	20%
[VOL] DK/REF	3%	3%	3%	3%	-	1%	6%	3%	1%	4%	2%	3%	2%	2%	3%	3%	2%	4%	4%	2%	1%	3%
NET excellent/good	49%	51%	48%	39%	46%	53%	54%	57%	39%	42%	60%	44%	60%	45%	58%	44%	47%	58%	47%	43%	62%	42%
NET fair/poor	47%	46%	49%	59%	54%	46%	40%	41%	60%	54%	38%	53%	38%	53%	38%	53%	51%	38%	50%	55%	37%	55%
Number of respondents	885	464	415	114	143	280	302	515	197	146	355	520	395	345	300	254	274	332	308	245	354	489
Percent of likely electorate	100%	51%	48%	11%	20%	35%	29%	60%	21%	17%	34%	64%	43%	38%	32%	30%	32%	35%	35%	30%	38%	58%

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 885 likely voters in Nevada was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones on Oct. 19-24, 2022. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect is 1.6. Overall, 84 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone, and 2 percent of all interviews were conducted in Spanish.

Party I.D. is self-identified party, without leaners; independents only include self-identified independents. Party registration is the respondent’s party as listed on the voter file.

Arizona

Thinking ahead to the November midterm election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote or not at all likely to vote?
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Almost certain	48%	49%	48%	50%	45%	54%	43%	48%	48%	45%	48%	49%	42%	53%	41%	54%	47%	43%	53%	48%	42%	53%
Very likely	25%	23%	26%	25%	24%	24%	26%	24%	24%	27%	23%	25%	24%	26%	28%	26%	21%	25%	27%	21%	26%	24%
Somewhat likely	4%	3%	4%	8%	8%	<.5%	2%	2%	6%	7%	3%	4%	3%	3%	3%	3%	4%	2%	2%	7%	1%	5%
Not very likely	1%	2%	<.5%	3%	3%	1%	-	1%	1%	1%	<.5%	2%	1%	1%	-	1%	2%	-	1%	2%	1%	1%
Not at all likely	1%	<.5%	1%	1%	<.5%	1%	-	<.5%	1%	-	<.5%	1%	1%	<.5%	1%	-	1%	<.5%	-	2%	<.5%	<.5%
[VOLUNTEERED] Already voted	21%	23%	19%	11%	15%	19%	29%	23%	18%	16%	24%	19%	29%	16%	27%	14%	24%	28%	16%	20%	28%	16%
[VOLUNTEERED] Don’t know/Refused	1%	1%	1%	1%	5%	<.5%	-	<.5%	3%	4%	1%	1%	<.5%	2%	1%	1%	<.5%	1%	1%	2%	1%	1%
Number of respondents	604	303	291	74	114	204	188	401	120	59	290	310	257	279	165	198	201	182	249	173	216	358
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	51%	13%	18%	32%	33%	66%	21%	9%	41%	58%	41%	46%	29%	33%	32%	32%	40%	28%	36%	60%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following: Mark Kelly
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Very favorable	33%	27%	39%	23%	27%	32%	39%	32%	38%	35%	36%	31%	64%	6%	67%	9%	31%	64%	10%	30%	68%	10%
Somewhat favorable	14%	12%	16%	31%	23%	13%	5%	13%	20%	19%	15%	13%	22%	7%	14%	4%	24%	16%	7%	22%	19%	11%
Somewhat unfavorable	7%	7%	7%	14%	7%	8%	4%	7%	5%	15%	6%	7%	3%	10%	2%	11%	7%	2%	10%	9%	2%	10%
Very unfavorable	38%	48%	28%	18%	35%	38%	48%	42%	28%	17%	36%	39%	5%	71%	7%	70%	30%	11%	66%	28%	3%	60%
[VOL] Have not heard of	3%	1%	3%	4%	3%	5%	-	1%	3%	2%	1%	3%	3%	2%	4%	2%	1%	3%	2%	3%	2%	3%
[VOL] DK/REF	6%	5%	6%	10%	5%	4%	4%	4%	7%	12%	4%	7%	4%	5%	5%	5%	7%	4%	5%	8%	5%	6%
NET favorable	47%	39%	55%	54%	50%	45%	44%	45%	57%	54%	52%	43%	85%	12%	82%	13%	54%	80%	17%	53%	88%	21%
NET unfavorable	45%	55%	35%	31%	42%	46%	52%	49%	33%	32%	43%	46%	8%	81%	9%	80%	37%	13%	76%	36%	5%	71%
Number of respondents	604	303	291	74	114	204	188	401	120	59	290	310	257	279	165	198	201	182	249	173	216	358
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	51%	13%	18%	32%	33%	66%	21%	9%	41%	58%	41%	46%	29%	33%	32%	32%	40%	28%	36%	60%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following: Blake Masters
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Very favorable	25%	30%	22%	9%	14%	30%	33%	28%	18%	21%	23%	27%	1%	50%	3%	54%	16%	2%	52%	13%	1%	41%
Somewhat favorable	13%	17%	10%	15%	19%	10%	11%	12%	14%	12%	12%	14%	5%	22%	6%	18%	11%	6%	18%	15%	5%	18%
Somewhat unfavorable	8%	11%	6%	15%	14%	7%	5%	8%	11%	9%	9%	8%	9%	6%	5%	5%	15%	9%	6%	12%	6%	10%
Very unfavorable	39%	30%	47%	41%	33%	39%	42%	39%	42%	43%	45%	35%	73%	8%	75%	9%	42%	71%	11%	42%	78%	14%
[VOL] Have not heard of	4%	3%	4%	4%	5%	6%	1%	3%	5%	5%	3%	5%	4%	3%	4%	3%	4%	3%	2%	6%	4%	4%
[VOL] DK/REF	11%	10%	11%	17%	15%	9%	7%	10%	10%	9%	8%	12%	9%	11%	7%	11%	11%	9%	11%	12%	6%	13%
NET favorable	38%	46%	31%	24%	33%	39%	45%	41%	33%	33%	35%	41%	6%	71%	9%	72%	27%	8%	70%	28%	7%	59%
NET unfavorable	47%	41%	53%	56%	47%	46%	47%	47%	53%	52%	54%	43%	82%	15%	80%	14%	57%	80%	17%	54%	84%	25%
Number of respondents	604	303	291	74	114	204	188	401	120	59	290	310	257	279	165	198	201	182	249	173	216	358
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	51%	13%	18%	32%	33%	66%	21%	9%	41%	58%	41%	46%	29%	33%	32%	32%	40%	28%	36%	60%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following: Katie Hobbs
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Very favorable	20%	14%	26%	11%	11%	20%	26%	19%	24%	23%	23%	18%	40%	2%	44%	5%	15%	40%	6%	16%	42%	5%
Somewhat favorable	21%	20%	22%	39%	31%	17%	14%	22%	20%	21%	24%	18%	36%	7%	27%	7%	32%	32%	8%	27%	36%	12%
Somewhat unfavorable	8%	10%	6%	10%	10%	8%	7%	7%	13%	6%	7%	9%	4%	9%	6%	6%	10%	8%	7%	9%	3%	11%
Very unfavorable	35%	44%	27%	13%	29%	42%	41%	38%	27%	28%	35%	35%	4%	67%	6%	67%	28%	6%	62%	29%	3%	56%
[VOL] Have not heard of	5%	4%	5%	7%	8%	6%	1%	4%	4%	7%	3%	6%	5%	4%	5%	5%	4%	4%	5%	6%	5%	5%
[VOL] DK/REF	11%	9%	13%	21%	10%	8%	11%	10%	12%	16%	8%	14%	11%	10%	12%	11%	12%	11%	11%	13%	11%	11%
NET favorable	41%	33%	48%	49%	42%	37%	40%	41%	44%	43%	47%	36%	75%	9%	71%	11%	46%	72%	14%	43%	78%	17%
NET unfavorable	43%	54%	33%	23%	39%	49%	48%	45%	40%	34%	42%	44%	9%	76%	11%	73%	38%	14%	70%	38%	6%	67%
Number of respondents	604	303	291	74	114	204	188	401	120	59	290	310	257	279	165	198	201	182	249	173	216	358
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	51%	13%	18%	32%	33%	66%	21%	9%	41%	58%	41%	46%	29%	33%	32%	32%	40%	28%	36%	60%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following: Kari Lake
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Very favorable	33%	40%	27%	8%	23%	42%	42%	36%	24%	28%	32%	34%	1%	66%	4%	68%	23%	4%	66%	20%	2%	53%
Somewhat favorable	11%	12%	11%	19%	13%	9%	9%	10%	16%	9%	8%	14%	7%	15%	6%	14%	12%	6%	13%	14%	5%	15%
Somewhat unfavorable	7%	9%	6%	13%	19%	4%	2%	8%	6%	8%	8%	6%	8%	4%	4%	2%	15%	7%	4%	12%	6%	8%
Very unfavorable	37%	31%	42%	38%	31%	36%	40%	37%	39%	44%	45%	31%	72%	6%	72%	8%	38%	69%	10%	39%	76%	13%
[VOL] Have not heard of	3%	2%	4%	2%	4%	4%	2%	2%	5%	4%	2%	4%	5%	2%	6%	1%	2%	6%	1%	4%	4%	3%
[VOL] DK/REF	8%	7%	9%	19%	10%	5%	5%	7%	10%	7%	4%	10%	8%	7%	8%	6%	9%	8%	6%	11%	7%	7%
NET favorable	45%	52%	38%	28%	36%	50%	51%	46%	40%	37%	40%	48%	8%	81%	10%	83%	35%	10%	79%	34%	7%	69%
NET unfavorable	44%	39%	48%	51%	50%	41%	42%	45%	45%	52%	53%	37%	79%	10%	77%	10%	54%	76%	14%	51%	82%	21%
Number of respondents	604	303	291	74	114	204	188	401	120	59	290	310	257	279	165	198	201	182	249	173	216	358
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	51%	13%	18%	32%	33%	66%	21%	9%	41%	58%	41%	46%	29%	33%	32%	32%	40%	28%	36%	60%

If this November’s election for U.S. Senate were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for? [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?] (Includes leaners)
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Mark Kelly, the Democrat	51%	43%	59%	68%	56%	47%	46%	48%	66%	58%	55%	49%	96%	10%	95%	10%	60%	92%	14%	58%	96%	23%
Blake Masters, the Republican	45%	55%	37%	29%	37%	50%	52%	50%	31%	33%	43%	47%	3%	87%	4%	88%	35%	5%	83%	36%	3%	72%
[VOL] Marc Victor, the Libertarian	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	-	1%	<.5%	1%	2%	1%	1%	1%	<.5%	-	<.5%	2%	-	<.5%	2%	1%	1%
[VOL] DK/REF	3%	2%	3%	2%	5%	3%	1%	2%	1%	7%	2%	4%	1%	3%	1%	2%	3%	3%	3%	4%	1%	4%
Number of respondents	604	303	291	74	114	204	188	401	120	59	290	310	257	279	165	198	201	182	249	173	216	358
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	51%	13%	18%	32%	33%	66%	21%	9%	41%	58%	41%	46%	29%	33%	32%	32%	40%	28%	36%	60%

If this November’s election for Arizona's governor were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for? [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Katie Hobbs, the Democrat	48%	42%	54%	67%	51%	45%	43%	45%	60%	56%	52%	45%	93%	7%	94%	5%	57%	89%	11%	54%	93%	20%
Kari Lake, the Republican	48%	55%	41%	28%	44%	51%	55%	52%	35%	35%	46%	49%	4%	91%	4%	93%	38%	8%	85%	40%	4%	76%
[VOL] DK/REF	4%	3%	5%	5%	5%	5%	2%	3%	5%	10%	2%	6%	2%	3%	2%	2%	5%	3%	4%	6%	3%	4%
Number of respondents	604	303	291	74	114	204	188	401	120	59	290	310	257	279	165	198	201	182	249	173	216	358
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	51%	13%	18%	32%	33%	66%	21%	9%	41%	58%	41%	46%	29%	33%	32%	32%	40%	28%	36%	60%

If this November’s election for Arizona's secretary of state were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for? [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Adrian Fontes [fawn-tes], the Democrat	47%	40%	53%	65%	47%	41%	47%	45%	57%	56%	52%	44%	90%	9%	91%	9%	53%	85%	14%	51%	90%	20%
Mark Finchem, the Republican	40%	47%	35%	23%	33%	45%	47%	44%	30%	27%	38%	42%	3%	78%	4%	81%	30%	4%	74%	32%	3%	65%
[VOL] Not sure/Undecided	6%	6%	5%	8%	11%	5%	3%	5%	7%	4%	5%	6%	3%	8%	2%	7%	8%	5%	5%	7%	3%	7%
[VOL] DK/REF	7%	7%	7%	4%	9%	10%	3%	6%	6%	13%	6%	8%	4%	5%	2%	3%	10%	5%	6%	11%	4%	8%
Number of respondents	604	303	291	74	114	204	188	401	120	59	290	310	257	279	165	198	201	182	249	173	216	358
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	51%	13%	18%	32%	33%	66%	21%	9%	41%	58%	41%	46%	29%	33%	32%	32%	40%	28%	36%	60%

What is your preference for the outcome of this year's Senate elections?
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Democratic control of the Senate	42%	35%	49%	60%	44%	37%	40%	40%	52%	55%	47%	39%	88%	2%	93%	3%	42%	85%	7%	45%	90%	13%
Republican control of the Senate	49%	58%	41%	27%	44%	56%	55%	53%	39%	31%	45%	52%	6%	91%	4%	94%	40%	6%	87%	44%	4%	79%
[VOL] DK/REF	9%	7%	10%	13%	12%	8%	5%	7%	9%	14%	8%	9%	6%	7%	3%	3%	18%	9%	6%	11%	6%	9%
Number of respondents	604	303	291	74	114	204	188	401	120	59	290	310	257	279	165	198	201	182	249	173	216	358
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	51%	13%	18%	32%	33%	66%	21%	9%	41%	58%	41%	46%	29%	33%	32%	32%	40%	28%	36%	60%

Thinking about whether to vote for Democrats or Republicans for Congress this November, what types of issues are most important in deciding your vote? [IF NEEDED: If you had to choose one …]
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Societal issues such as abortion, guns or democracy	40%	34%	47%	58%	41%	38%	36%	42%	40%	39%	44%	38%	65%	19%	66%	21%	40%	66%	22%	38%	67%	24%
Economic issues such as jobs, taxes or the cost of living	44%	52%	37%	26%	43%	49%	48%	46%	43%	37%	41%	45%	23%	65%	18%	64%	47%	20%	60%	48%	20%	60%
[VOL] Both equal	13%	12%	12%	16%	14%	12%	10%	11%	13%	20%	12%	14%	11%	14%	13%	13%	12%	11%	15%	12%	10%	15%
[VOL] Neither	1%	1%	1%	-	<.5%	1%	1%	1%	1%	-	1%	<.5%	1%	1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	1%	<.5%	1%
[VOL] DK/REF	2%	1%	3%	-	1%	-	5%	1%	3%	4%	1%	3%	1%	2%	3%	2%	1%	3%	2%	1%	3%	1%
Number of respondents	604	303	291	74	114	204	188	401	120	59	290	310	257	279	165	198	201	182	249	173	216	358
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	51%	13%	18%	32%	33%	66%	21%	9%	41%	58%	41%	46%	29%	33%	32%	32%	40%	28%	36%	60%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Strongly approve	16%	10%	22%	11%	8%	16%	22%	17%	16%	15%	18%	15%	35%	1%	42%	2%	10%	38%	3%	10%	44%	-
Somewhat approve	20%	18%	21%	32%	22%	17%	15%	17%	27%	32%	22%	19%	40%	3%	38%	2%	24%	37%	5%	23%	56%	-
Somewhat disapprove	11%	10%	13%	21%	16%	10%	7%	9%	17%	12%	12%	11%	13%	6%	8%	7%	19%	13%	7%	16%	-	19%
Strongly disapprove	49%	58%	40%	31%	48%	53%	54%	53%	34%	37%	45%	51%	6%	90%	9%	89%	40%	9%	84%	44%	-	81%
[VOL] DK/REF	4%	3%	4%	4%	5%	3%	2%	3%	6%	5%	3%	4%	6%	1%	4%	-	7%	4%	1%	7%	-	-
NET approve	36%	29%	43%	43%	30%	34%	37%	34%	44%	46%	40%	34%	75%	3%	80%	4%	34%	75%	7%	33%	100%	-
NET disapprove	60%	68%	53%	52%	65%	63%	61%	63%	51%	48%	57%	62%	19%	96%	17%	96%	59%	22%	91%	59%	-	100%
Number of respondents	604	303	291	74	114	204	188	401	120	59	290	310	257	279	165	198	201	182	249	173	216	358
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	51%	13%	18%	32%	33%	66%	21%	9%	41%	58%	41%	46%	29%	33%	32%	32%	40%	28%	36%	60%

Would you rather vote for a candidate who thinks abortion should be …
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Always legal	29%	25%	33%	49%	33%	26%	23%	31%	30%	30%	31%	29%	52%	8%	54%	7%	32%	51%	10%	33%	55%	13%
Mostly legal	23%	23%	23%	24%	18%	24%	23%	23%	27%	18%	24%	22%	31%	17%	27%	19%	25%	31%	18%	21%	28%	19%
Mostly illegal	24%	28%	20%	14%	23%	27%	26%	26%	20%	17%	25%	23%	6%	42%	7%	43%	21%	6%	41%	19%	4%	37%
Always illegal	7%	6%	8%	1%	9%	6%	10%	7%	4%	11%	6%	7%	1%	11%	2%	13%	5%	2%	12%	6%	2%	11%
It does not matter either way	13%	15%	9%	13%	15%	13%	11%	11%	13%	17%	12%	14%	8%	17%	6%	14%	14%	7%	14%	18%	7%	17%
[VOL] DK/REF	4%	2%	6%	-	3%	4%	6%	4%	5%	7%	2%	5%	2%	5%	3%	5%	3%	3%	6%	3%	4%	4%
NET legal	52%	48%	56%	72%	51%	50%	46%	53%	57%	48%	55%	51%	83%	26%	81%	26%	57%	82%	28%	54%	83%	32%
NET illegal	31%	34%	28%	15%	31%	33%	37%	33%	24%	28%	30%	31%	7%	53%	9%	55%	26%	8%	53%	25%	6%	47%
Number of respondents	604	303	291	74	114	204	188	401	120	59	290	310	257	279	165	198	201	182	249	173	216	358
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	51%	13%	18%	32%	33%	66%	21%	9%	41%	58%	41%	46%	29%	33%	32%	32%	40%	28%	36%	60%

Would you rather vote for a candidate who thinks …
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Joe Biden won the 2020 election	43%	38%	49%	50%	44%	40%	42%	43%	45%	48%	50%	39%	87%	7%	82%	7%	50%	79%	10%	50%	90%	14%
Donald Trump won the 2020 election	19%	22%	16%	10%	11%	23%	23%	22%	10%	15%	16%	21%	<.5%	39%	2%	44%	8%	2%	38%	11%	1%	31%
It does not matter either way	35%	39%	32%	40%	43%	34%	31%	33%	40%	31%	34%	36%	13%	51%	14%	47%	39%	17%	49%	37%	8%	52%
[VOL] DK/REF	3%	1%	4%	-	2%	3%	4%	2%	5%	6%	1%	4%	<.5%	3%	2%	2%	3%	2%	4%	2%	2%	3%
Number of respondents	604	303	291	74	114	204	188	401	120	59	290	310	257	279	165	198	201	182	249	173	216	358
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	51%	13%	18%	32%	33%	66%	21%	9%	41%	58%	41%	46%	29%	33%	32%	32%	40%	28%	36%	60%

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 604 likely voters in Arizona was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones on Oct. 24-26, 2022. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect is 1.2. Overall, 87 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone, and 2 percent of all interviews were conducted in Spanish.

Party I.D. is self-identified party, without leaners; independents only include self-identified independents. Party registration is the respondent’s party as listed on the voter file.

Georgia

Thinking ahead to the November midterm election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote or not at all likely to vote?
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Almost certain	55%	57%	53%	36%	47%	64%	56%	60%	47%	47%	53%	56%	54%	62%	55%	61%	48%	56%	63%	45%	55%	56%
Very likely	23%	19%	26%	27%	29%	15%	26%	20%	29%	24%	22%	23%	24%	21%	21%	21%	27%	22%	21%	26%	22%	22%
Somewhat likely	5%	4%	7%	19%	5%	5%	1%	4%	6%	8%	6%	5%	4%	3%	5%	5%	6%	1%	4%	11%	6%	5%
Not very likely	2%	3%	1%	7%	3%	2%	-	1%	1%	6%	2%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	5%	<.5%	4%	2%	1%	3%
Not at all likely	2%	2%	1%	6%	1%	1%	<.5%	1%	1%	4%	1%	2%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	4%	1%	1%	3%	<.5%	2%
[VOLUNTEERED] Already voted	13%	15%	11%	4%	13%	12%	17%	12%	16%	12%	16%	11%	16%	11%	18%	11%	8%	21%	8%	11%	16%	11%
[VOLUNTEERED] Don’t know/Refused	1%	<.5%	1%	-	2%	<.5%	-	1%	1%	-	<.5%	1%	<.5%	<.5%	-	1%	1%	-	<.5%	2%	-	1%
Number of respondents	604	313	281	51	132	242	159	334	150	98	331	269	266	248	197	198	174	200	231	173	240	341
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	52%	12%	23%	36%	26%	56%	24%	17%	40%	60%	43%	41%	33%	34%	26%	29%	38%	33%	39%	57%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following: Raphael [rah-FEE-el] Warnock [war-nock]
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Very favorable	34%	31%	37%	27%	35%	38%	31%	23%	68%	21%	39%	31%	68%	2%	76%	3%	26%	75%	4%	32%	71%	7%
Somewhat favorable	15%	15%	17%	28%	23%	15%	3%	10%	20%	29%	16%	15%	22%	5%	19%	6%	22%	14%	11%	22%	20%	12%
Somewhat unfavorable	9%	10%	8%	14%	8%	9%	8%	11%	5%	9%	11%	8%	4%	13%	3%	9%	14%	4%	12%	11%	3%	14%
Very unfavorable	36%	37%	35%	22%	29%	35%	53%	51%	4%	32%	31%	40%	4%	75%	1%	76%	30%	5%	68%	28%	4%	61%
[VOL] Have not heard of	1%	2%	1%	-	2%	2%	2%	2%	<.5%	3%	1%	2%	<.5%	2%	-	3%	2%	1%	2%	1%	<.5%	2%
[VOL] DK/REF	4%	5%	2%	8%	3%	2%	3%	3%	2%	6%	2%	4%	2%	2%	1%	3%	7%	1%	3%	6%	3%	3%
NET favorable	49%	46%	54%	56%	58%	52%	34%	33%	89%	50%	54%	46%	90%	8%	95%	10%	48%	89%	15%	54%	91%	19%
NET unfavorable	46%	47%	43%	36%	37%	44%	60%	62%	9%	41%	42%	48%	8%	88%	4%	85%	43%	9%	80%	38%	6%	75%
Number of respondents	604	313	281	51	132	242	159	334	150	98	331	269	266	248	197	198	174	200	231	173	240	341
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	52%	12%	23%	36%	26%	56%	24%	17%	40%	60%	43%	41%	33%	34%	26%	29%	38%	33%	39%	57%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following: Herschel Walker
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Very favorable	25%	23%	26%	4%	14%	24%	45%	33%	4%	24%	17%	30%	2%	53%	3%	57%	13%	5%	49%	15%	4%	41%
Somewhat favorable	14%	18%	10%	18%	17%	15%	9%	20%	5%	11%	18%	12%	4%	26%	3%	21%	17%	3%	23%	14%	3%	23%
Somewhat unfavorable	13%	16%	11%	32%	15%	10%	6%	12%	10%	22%	13%	14%	13%	9%	11%	9%	19%	9%	10%	20%	13%	14%
Very unfavorable	41%	36%	45%	35%	48%	43%	35%	28%	76%	36%	46%	37%	76%	7%	80%	7%	39%	78%	11%	42%	78%	15%
[VOL] Have not heard of	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	2%	1%	2%	2%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	2%	1%	1%	2%	1%	1%	2%
[VOL] DK/REF	5%	5%	5%	8%	3%	6%	3%	5%	3%	5%	4%	6%	3%	5%	1%	4%	11%	3%	5%	7%	2%	6%
NET favorable	39%	42%	37%	23%	31%	39%	54%	53%	9%	34%	35%	42%	6%	78%	6%	78%	30%	8%	72%	29%	6%	64%
NET unfavorable	54%	52%	57%	68%	64%	54%	41%	40%	86%	59%	59%	51%	89%	16%	91%	16%	58%	87%	22%	63%	91%	29%
Number of respondents	604	313	281	51	132	242	159	334	150	98	331	269	266	248	197	198	174	200	231	173	240	341
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	52%	12%	23%	36%	26%	56%	24%	17%	40%	60%	43%	41%	33%	34%	26%	29%	38%	33%	39%	57%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following: Stacey Abrams
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Very favorable	34%	29%	39%	35%	41%	34%	26%	19%	72%	31%	41%	29%	72%	1%	77%	3%	25%	79%	2%	31%	69%	8%
Somewhat favorable	12%	14%	11%	22%	13%	13%	5%	9%	16%	19%	13%	11%	22%	2%	18%	2%	17%	14%	6%	18%	20%	7%
Somewhat unfavorable	7%	9%	6%	7%	9%	5%	9%	10%	2%	7%	8%	7%	2%	8%	1%	9%	14%	2%	11%	8%	4%	10%
Very unfavorable	41%	44%	38%	24%	32%	46%	54%	59%	7%	31%	35%	46%	3%	85%	2%	81%	36%	4%	76%	35%	3%	70%
[VOL] Have not heard of	1%	1%	1%	-	3%	1%	1%	1%	<.5%	4%	1%	1%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	1%	2%	-	2%	1%	1%	2%
[VOL] DK/REF	4%	3%	5%	12%	2%	2%	5%	4%	2%	7%	2%	5%	2%	3%	1%	3%	7%	1%	3%	8%	3%	4%
NET favorable	46%	42%	51%	57%	55%	46%	31%	27%	89%	50%	54%	41%	93%	3%	95%	5%	42%	93%	8%	49%	89%	15%
NET unfavorable	49%	53%	44%	31%	41%	51%	63%	68%	9%	38%	43%	53%	5%	93%	4%	90%	49%	6%	86%	42%	7%	80%
Number of respondents	604	313	281	51	132	242	159	334	150	98	331	269	266	248	197	198	174	200	231	173	240	341
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	52%	12%	23%	36%	26%	56%	24%	17%	40%	60%	43%	41%	33%	34%	26%	29%	38%	33%	39%	57%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following: Brian Kemp
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Very favorable	32%	35%	29%	14%	16%	34%	52%	44%	3%	32%	27%	35%	4%	64%	3%	67%	24%	5%	61%	21%	5%	52%
Somewhat favorable	23%	26%	21%	30%	34%	22%	12%	25%	19%	24%	21%	25%	18%	27%	16%	24%	32%	14%	24%	30%	16%	29%
Somewhat unfavorable	14%	15%	14%	21%	13%	16%	11%	10%	20%	22%	17%	12%	22%	5%	22%	5%	13%	21%	6%	18%	22%	9%
Very unfavorable	26%	21%	30%	27%	32%	25%	19%	17%	55%	16%	32%	22%	53%	1%	55%	<.5%	24%	57%	4%	23%	53%	5%
[VOL] Have not heard of	2%	1%	2%	-	3%	1%	2%	1%	1%	3%	1%	2%	1%	2%	1%	2%	2%	-	2%	3%	1%	2%
[VOL] DK/REF	3%	2%	5%	7%	1%	2%	4%	3%	3%	4%	2%	4%	2%	2%	3%	2%	6%	3%	3%	5%	3%	3%
NET favorable	55%	60%	50%	44%	50%	56%	63%	69%	21%	56%	48%	60%	23%	91%	18%	91%	55%	19%	86%	51%	21%	81%
NET unfavorable	40%	36%	44%	49%	46%	41%	30%	27%	75%	38%	49%	34%	75%	6%	78%	5%	37%	78%	10%	41%	75%	14%
Number of respondents	604	313	281	51	132	242	159	334	150	98	331	269	266	248	197	198	174	200	231	173	240	341
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	52%	12%	23%	36%	26%	56%	24%	17%	40%	60%	43%	41%	33%	34%	26%	29%	38%	33%	39%	57%

If this November’s election for U.S. Senate were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for? [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?] (Includes leaners)
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Raphael [rah-FEE-el] Warnock [war-nock], the Democrat	49%	44%	54%	59%	58%	50%	35%	32%	92%	45%	52%	46%	92%	5%	95%	5%	51%	93%	9%	55%	91%	18%
Herschel Walker, the Republican	46%	50%	42%	33%	38%	47%	57%	62%	6%	48%	43%	49%	7%	91%	4%	92%	39%	6%	83%	38%	8%	75%
[VOL] Chase Oliver, the Libertarian	1%	2%	<.5%	3%	1%	1%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	1%	1%	1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	-	2%	<.5%	1%	2%	-	2%
[VOL] DK/REF	4%	4%	4%	5%	3%	3%	7%	4%	2%	6%	4%	4%	1%	3%	1%	4%	8%	1%	6%	5%	1%	6%
Number of respondents	604	313	281	51	132	242	159	334	150	98	331	269	266	248	197	198	174	200	231	173	240	341
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	52%	12%	23%	36%	26%	56%	24%	17%	40%	60%	43%	41%	33%	34%	26%	29%	38%	33%	39%	57%

(Combined runoff ballot) Thinking again about this November’s election for U.S. Senate, if the only candidates were the Democrat, Raphael Warnock (rah-FEE-el war-nock), and the Republican, Herschel Walker, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for?
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Raphael [rah-FEE-el] Warnock [war-nock], the Democrat	49%	45%	54%	60%	58%	51%	36%	32%	92%	47%	53%	47%	93%	6%	95%	5%	53%	93%	10%	57%	91%	19%
Herschel Walker, the Republican	47%	51%	42%	34%	38%	47%	60%	63%	7%	49%	43%	50%	7%	91%	4%	92%	41%	6%	85%	39%	8%	76%
[VOL] DK/REF	4%	4%	4%	6%	4%	3%	5%	5%	1%	4%	4%	3%	1%	3%	1%	3%	6%	1%	6%	4%	1%	5%
Number of respondents	604	313	281	51	132	242	159	334	150	98	331	269	266	248	197	198	174	200	231	173	240	341
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	52%	12%	23%	36%	26%	56%	24%	17%	40%	60%	43%	41%	33%	34%	26%	29%	38%	33%	39%	57%

If this November’s election for Georgia's governor were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for? [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Stacey Abrams, the Democrat	45%	40%	49%	55%	49%	44%	34%	26%	89%	46%	48%	42%	90%	2%	95%	3%	38%	89%	9%	47%	90%	13%
Brian Kemp, the Republican	50%	56%	44%	35%	46%	51%	63%	70%	7%	46%	46%	54%	6%	95%	2%	94%	55%	8%	87%	46%	8%	82%
[VOL] Shane Hazel, the Libertarian	1%	1%	1%	5%	<.5%	1%	-	1%	1%	2%	1%	1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	-	1%	1%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	1%
[VOL] DK/REF	4%	2%	5%	5%	5%	4%	3%	3%	4%	7%	5%	4%	3%	2%	3%	3%	6%	3%	4%	6%	2%	4%
Number of respondents	604	313	281	51	132	242	159	334	150	98	331	269	266	248	197	198	174	200	231	173	240	341
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	52%	12%	23%	36%	26%	56%	24%	17%	40%	60%	43%	41%	33%	34%	26%	29%	38%	33%	39%	57%

What is your preference for the outcome of this year's Senate elections?
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Democratic control of the Senate	45%	42%	48%	56%	53%	42%	35%	27%	90%	43%	51%	41%	90%	3%	98%	-	42%	91%	7%	48%	91%	12%
Republican control of the Senate	49%	50%	47%	33%	38%	52%	63%	68%	8%	44%	44%	52%	6%	95%	<.5%	99%	44%	7%	86%	42%	6%	80%
[VOL] DK/REF	6%	8%	5%	11%	9%	6%	2%	5%	2%	13%	5%	7%	4%	3%	2%	1%	15%	2%	6%	10%	2%	7%
Number of respondents	604	313	281	51	132	242	159	334	150	98	331	269	266	248	197	198	174	200	231	173	240	341
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	52%	12%	23%	36%	26%	56%	24%	17%	40%	60%	43%	41%	33%	34%	26%	29%	38%	33%	39%	57%

Thinking about whether to vote for Democrats or Republicans for Congress this November, what types of issues are most important in deciding your vote? [IF NEEDED: If you had to choose one …]
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Societal issues such as abortion, guns or democracy	32%	31%	35%	48%	33%	33%	24%	31%	36%	31%	39%	28%	50%	13%	57%	17%	25%	54%	16%	32%	56%	17%
Economic issues such as jobs, taxes or the cost of living	51%	54%	48%	33%	45%	54%	60%	57%	36%	54%	46%	55%	30%	73%	26%	67%	57%	28%	69%	50%	27%	69%
[VOL] Both equal	14%	13%	16%	16%	20%	12%	12%	11%	25%	12%	14%	14%	18%	13%	15%	14%	16%	15%	13%	16%	14%	13%
[VOL] Neither	1%	1%	1%	3%	<.5%	-	1%	1%	1%	1%	<.5%	1%	1%	-	1%	-	1%	1%	-	1%	1%	<.5%
[VOL] DK/REF	2%	2%	1%	-	1%	1%	3%	1%	2%	3%	1%	2%	2%	1%	2%	1%	1%	2%	2%	1%	3%	1%
Number of respondents	604	313	281	51	132	242	159	334	150	98	331	269	266	248	197	198	174	200	231	173	240	341
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	52%	12%	23%	36%	26%	56%	24%	17%	40%	60%	43%	41%	33%	34%	26%	29%	38%	33%	39%	57%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Strongly approve	17%	17%	18%	2%	14%	20%	23%	11%	34%	15%	19%	16%	37%	<.5%	44%	2%	9%	43%	<.5%	14%	44%	-
Somewhat approve	22%	19%	25%	43%	28%	17%	14%	15%	34%	29%	28%	18%	40%	3%	42%	2%	23%	36%	8%	26%	56%	-
Somewhat disapprove	11%	11%	11%	18%	11%	13%	3%	10%	12%	11%	10%	11%	9%	6%	8%	10%	16%	8%	8%	16%	-	19%
Strongly disapprove	46%	48%	44%	34%	40%	46%	60%	62%	12%	42%	41%	50%	9%	90%	4%	86%	45%	8%	82%	39%	-	81%
[VOL] DK/REF	4%	5%	3%	3%	7%	4%	<.5%	2%	9%	4%	3%	4%	5%	-	2%	1%	8%	6%	2%	4%	-	-
NET approve	39%	37%	42%	45%	41%	37%	36%	26%	68%	43%	47%	35%	77%	4%	85%	3%	32%	79%	8%	40%	100%	-
NET disapprove	57%	58%	55%	52%	51%	59%	63%	72%	24%	53%	50%	61%	18%	96%	12%	96%	61%	15%	90%	55%	-	100%
Number of respondents	604	313	281	51	132	242	159	334	150	98	331	269	266	248	197	198	174	200	231	173	240	341
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	52%	12%	23%	36%	26%	56%	24%	17%	40%	60%	43%	41%	33%	34%	26%	29%	38%	33%	39%	57%

Thinking about the candidates for U.S. Senate in Georgia, who do you think is more honest and trustworthy?
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Raphael [rah-FEE-el] Warnock [war-nock]	49%	46%	52%	56%	58%	49%	38%	31%	92%	49%	54%	45%	90%	8%	95%	7%	50%	92%	10%	54%	89%	19%
Herschel Walker	37%	37%	36%	22%	25%	38%	51%	50%	6%	35%	31%	40%	7%	74%	5%	78%	24%	7%	68%	26%	7%	59%
[VOL] DK/REF	15%	18%	11%	22%	17%	13%	11%	19%	2%	16%	15%	15%	3%	18%	-	15%	25%	1%	21%	19%	4%	21%
Number of respondents	604	313	281	51	132	242	159	334	150	98	331	269	266	248	197	198	174	200	231	173	240	341
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	52%	12%	23%	36%	26%	56%	24%	17%	40%	60%	43%	41%	33%	34%	26%	29%	38%	33%	39%	57%

Would you rather vote for a candidate who thinks abortion should be …
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Always legal	27%	22%	32%	40%	36%	24%	18%	22%	43%	25%	30%	26%	50%	6%	54%	4%	25%	50%	7%	31%	49%	12%
Mostly legal	22%	24%	21%	29%	22%	21%	20%	20%	23%	27%	26%	20%	27%	17%	26%	15%	26%	26%	18%	25%	28%	18%
Mostly illegal	18%	20%	17%	20%	17%	17%	21%	26%	3%	13%	20%	17%	4%	32%	1%	32%	20%	2%	34%	15%	4%	29%
Always illegal	9%	8%	10%	3%	5%	13%	11%	11%	3%	12%	5%	12%	3%	18%	2%	20%	5%	5%	13%	8%	2%	14%
It does not matter either way	17%	20%	15%	8%	17%	20%	20%	15%	24%	19%	14%	20%	13%	19%	13%	20%	20%	14%	21%	16%	13%	20%
[VOL] DK/REF	6%	6%	5%	-	4%	6%	10%	7%	5%	5%	5%	6%	4%	8%	5%	8%	5%	4%	8%	6%	4%	7%
NET legal	49%	46%	53%	69%	58%	44%	37%	42%	66%	52%	56%	45%	77%	23%	79%	19%	52%	75%	24%	55%	76%	29%
NET illegal	27%	28%	27%	22%	21%	30%	33%	37%	5%	25%	26%	29%	6%	50%	3%	53%	24%	7%	47%	23%	6%	43%
Number of respondents	604	313	281	51	132	242	159	334	150	98	331	269	266	248	197	198	174	200	231	173	240	341
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	52%	12%	23%	36%	26%	56%	24%	17%	40%	60%	43%	41%	33%	34%	26%	29%	38%	33%	39%	57%

Would you rather vote for a candidate who thinks …
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
Joe Biden won the 2020 election	42%	40%	45%	45%	47%	43%	38%	34%	67%	40%	54%	35%	79%	7%	82%	10%	37%	85%	15%	37%	82%	15%
Donald Trump won the 2020 election	16%	15%	18%	7%	6%	15%	30%	22%	<.5%	22%	8%	22%	2%	35%	3%	37%	9%	1%	30%	14%	2%	27%
It does not matter either way	39%	43%	34%	48%	43%	40%	29%	41%	30%	38%	36%	40%	18%	55%	15%	50%	51%	13%	52%	45%	15%	55%
[VOL] DK/REF	3%	2%	3%	-	3%	2%	4%	3%	2%	1%	2%	3%	1%	4%	<.5%	3%	3%	2%	3%	3%	-	4%
Number of respondents	604	313	281	51	132	242	159	334	150	98	331	269	266	248	197	198	174	200	231	173	240	341
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	52%	12%	23%	36%	26%	56%	24%	17%	40%	60%	43%	41%	33%	34%	26%	29%	38%	33%	39%	57%

When it comes to elections in the United States, what concerns you more?
	Likely Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		2020 Vote		Party I.D.			Party Reg.			Biden App.
	Likely Voters	Male	Female	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Black	Non-white	B.A.+	No B.A.	Biden	Trump	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	App.	Disapp.
That some people will cast votes illegally	40%	42%	37%	26%	36%	42%	49%	55%	8%	35%	36%	42%	4%	80%	4%	76%	37%	7%	71%	33%	5%	65%
That some eligible voters won’t have a fair chance to vote	53%	52%	56%	70%	62%	53%	38%	38%	85%	63%	58%	50%	90%	13%	92%	18%	54%	86%	21%	62%	91%	26%
[VOL] DK/REF	7%	7%	7%	4%	3%	6%	13%	7%	7%	2%	6%	8%	5%	7%	4%	6%	9%	7%	8%	6%	4%	8%
Number of respondents	604	313	281	51	132	242	159	334	150	98	331	269	266	248	197	198	174	200	231	173	240	341
Percent of likely electorate	100%	47%	52%	12%	23%	36%	26%	56%	24%	17%	40%	60%	43%	41%	33%	34%	26%	29%	38%	33%	39%	57%

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 604 likely voters in Georgia was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones on Oct. 24-27, 2022. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.8 percentage points. The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect is 1.5. Overall, 75 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone, and 0 percent of all interviews were conducted in Spanish.

Party I.D. is self-identified party, without leaners; independents only include self-identified independents. Party registration is the respondent’s party as listed on the voter file.

Methodology

Sample

The survey is a stratified response-rate-adjusted probability-proportionate-to-size sample of the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage and nonresponse.

To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file for each congressional district was first stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and homeownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate were calculated for each stratum. The mean expected response rate was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena surveys. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Second, the probability of selection was weighted by the likelihood that a respondent would vote in the 2022 election, based on a model of turnout in 2010, 2018 and 2021 as a function of the respondent’s political and demographic characteristics.

Finally, the Nevada voter file was split between the First District and the rest of the state. The two Nevada samples were fielded and weighted separately.

Fielding

The sample was stratified by party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, IPOR at Roanoke College, and PORL at the University of North Florida. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents initially contacted by English speakers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers.

Weighting

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package. Survey weights were trimmed at the 99th percentile.

The samples of Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada’s First and the rest of Nevada were each weighted as follows:

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by strata.

Second, the sample was weighted to match voter-file-based parameters for the characteristics of the likely electorate. The sample was also weighted to match census-based estimates for the educational attainment of the likely electorate.

The estimates for the characteristics of the likely electorate were based on multiple models. First, a model estimated the likely turnout by state, based on recent turnout and the competitiveness of the midterm race. Second, an individual-level model of turnout in 2010, 2018 and 2021 was used to estimate the probability that registrants would participate in the midterm election as a function of their demographic and political characteristics. Finally, the individual-level estimates were adjusted to match the expected turnout by state.

Third, the weighted samples of Nevada’s First District and the rest of Nevada were combined and the samples balanced to ensure their appropriate state of the likely electorate.

Fourth, self-reported vote intention was incorporated into the estimate of a respondent’s likelihood to vote. That was based on a model of validated turnout in Times/Siena surveys since 2016 as a function of self-reported vote intention and the pre-survey modeled turnout probability, including an adjustment for the higher turnout of survey respondents than nonrespondents.

Fifth, the final weight for the likely electorate was equal to the initial likely electorate weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability incorporating self-reported vote intention divided by the initial modeled turnout probability.

Parameters

The following voter-file-based targets were used to weight the sample to match the characteristics of registered voters and the likely electorate:

• Party (NYT classifications based on L2 data and, in states without party registration or primary vote history, a model of partisanship based on previous Times/Siena polls)

• Age (self-reported age or voter file age if the respondent refuses)

• Gender (self-reported gender or voter file gender if the respondent refuses)

• Race (L2 model)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Homeownership (L2 model)

• Region (NYT classification)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Vote method in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

The following census-based targets were used to weight the sample to match the characteristics of registered voters and the likely electorate:

• Educational attainment (NYT model based on A.C.S. and C.P.S. data)

• White/nonwhite x four-year college graduation (NYT model based on A.C.S. and C.P.S. data)

Cross-Tabs for Oct. 2022 Times/Siena Polls in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania

Nevada

Arizona

Georgia

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