The Lineup for the First Republican Presidential Debate
Eight candidates have qualified for the first Republican presidential debate in Milwaukee on Wednesday, the Republican National Committee announced on Monday night. Former President Donald J. Trump, the clear front-runner in polling, won’t be there. Instead, he has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson that is expected to post at the same time as the debate.
To participate in the debate, each candidate had to satisfy fund-raising and polling criteria set by the R.N.C. They each needed 40,000 campaign donors, including at least 200 donors from 20 states. And they needed support from 1 percent of Republican voters in three national polls, or in two national polls and two polls in the early primary states.
Candidates had until 9 p.m. on Monday to meet these requirements. Those who did also had to sign a pledge to follow several R.N.C. guidelines, including a promise to support the eventual Republican nominee. Mr. Trump, though he easily surpassed the fund-raising and polling thresholds, refused to sign.
Who qualified and who did not
Met goal according to a New York Times analysis | |
Met financial goal according to the campaign |
Candidate |
Number of donors |
States with 200 donors |
Polling level met |
---|---|---|---|
Trump Former president and businessman |
|||
DeSantis Governor of Florida |
|||
Pence Former vice president |
|||
Scott Senator from South Carolina |
|||
Haley Former governor and U.N. ambassador |
|||
Ramaswamy Entrepreneur and author |
|||
Christie Former governor of New Jersey |
|||
Burgum Governor of North Dakota |
|||
Hutchinson Former governor of Arkansas |
|||
Suarez Mayor of Miami |
No |
||
Elder Conservative talk radio host |
No |
||
Johnson Businessman |
No |
||
Hurd Former congressman from Texas |
No |
The other candidates who have met the money and polling goals have signed the pledge, though many previously expressed uncertainty about it.
For several candidates, the threshold of 40,000 individual donors proved particularly challenging. Former Vice President Mike Pence has consistently polled above the required 1 percent nationally, but at the end of June he had yet to reach even half of the required number of donors. But on Aug. 7, Mr. Pence’s campaign said that he had fulfilled the donor thresholds to qualify for the debate.
Some candidates, like Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota and Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur, offered financial incentives to donors to try to reach their goals. After offering donors $20 gift cards for $1 donations, Mr. Burgum said on July 19 that he had hit the donor requirement for the debate. Candidates’ financial reports for July and August will not be filed with the Federal Election Commission until this fall, after the first scheduled debate.
Mr. Trump eclipsed all the other candidates by a wide margin in his number of campaign donors in the first half of the year. His fund-raising surged after each of his first two indictments.
The R.N.C.’s polling requirements have left some room for ambiguity. The committee published standards that polls had to meet, but it has generally refused to confirm which surveys count.
Three candidates all fell short, according to the R.N.C.: Perry Johnson, a businessman who previously tried to run for governor of Michigan; Mayor Francis X. Suarez of Miami; and Larry Elder, a talk-show host who once ran for governor of California. The candidates themselves claimed to have qualified for the debate. Mr. Johnson said in a statement on Tuesday that the R.N.C. disqualified him “based on flawed and biased polling assessments.”
Methodology
To estimate whether candidates have met the donor requirements for debate qualification, The New York Times analyzed campaign finance reports filed to the Federal Election Commission. These reports cover the period from the beginning of this year through June 30. Data includes individual donations reported by campaigns to the commission as well as those made through WinRed, an online fund-raising platform that processes donations for Republican candidates. The Times calculated the approximate number of individual donors based on the name and ZIP code of the donors. Mr. Burgum and Mr. Christie announced in July that they had met the financial requirements to participate in the debate. Mr. Suarez said on Aug. 7 that he had reached the donor threshold. Mr. Pence said on Aug. 7 that he had qualified for the debate. Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas said he qualified on Aug. 20, and Mr. Elder confirmed to The Times on Aug. 21 that he had met the donor requirements. Mr. Johnson said in a statement on Aug. 22 that he had met the donor requirements and that he disagreed with the R.N.C.’s assessment that he had not met the polling threshold. Will Hurd, a former Texas congressman, released a similar statement, also on Aug. 22. The Times has been unable to confirm the number of online donations made via the WinRed platform for Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, though a spokesman said that he had met the requirements.
To estimate whether candidates have met the polling requirements, The Times analyzed Republican primary polls collected by FiveThirtyEight. The R.N.C. has not shared a full list of qualifying polls. The Times included the following surveys that appear to have met the R.N.C. criteria: weekly Morning Consult surveys, a Times/Siena College poll, and one poll each from JMC Analytics, Kaplan Strategies and Rasmussen Reports. In the analysis of state polls, The Times included two polls, of Iowa and South Carolina, conducted by Beacon Research for Fox Business, and one of New Hampshire by the University of New Hampshire.