Arizona Cross-Tabs: October 2023 Times/Siena Poll

Nov. 5, 2023

Responses from a survey of 603 voters in Arizona conducted by The New York Times and Siena College from Oct. 22 to Nov. 2, 2023.

(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction? [IF NEEDED: Based on anything you may have seen or heard, if you had to pick, would you say right track or wrong direction?]
Thinking ahead to next year’s presidential general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote, or not at all likely to vote?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Almost certain	46%	44%	49%	28%	48%	51%	53%	52%	36%	46%	57%	41%	60%	46%	45%	46%	44%	55%	36%	42%	59%	49%	46%	38%	47%	49%	45%	46%	47%	47%	49%	44%	51%	50%	24%
Very likely	40%	41%	39%	42%	38%	41%	40%	38%	44%	38%	36%	42%	33%	41%	40%	37%	44%	36%	43%	45%	32%	39%	41%	34%	40%	42%	39%	41%	40%	40%	43%	37%	41%	42%	30%
Somewhat likely	7%	8%	6%	18%	10%	4%	1%	6%	11%	7%	3%	10%	3%	8%	8%	3%	9%	3%	13%	8%	4%	6%	7%	12%	7%	4%	9%	7%	7%	5%	6%	10%	4%	4%	26%
Not very likely	1%	2%	<1%	4%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	3%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	2%	1%	3%	1%	2%	0%	2%	1%	0%	<1%	<1%	2%	2%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	2%	<1%	1%	3%
Not at all likely	3%	3%	3%	9%	4%	1%	<1%	2%	4%	9%	2%	4%	2%	2%	3%	9%	<1%	0%	3%	2%	4%	2%	3%	6%	2%	2%	3%	2%	3%	3%	<1%	5%	1%	<.5%	17%
[VOL] Already voted	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	3%	2%	<1%	0%	3%	4%	2%	3%	0%	<1%	3%	<1%	3%	3%	2%	<1%	3%	4%	<1%	2%	2%	2%	10%	3%	2%	2%	2%	2%	3%	2%	3%	2%	1%	<1%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

(Includes leaners) Thinking about the upcoming presidential election in 2024, if the election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican? FOLLOW UP: Are you definitely or probably voting for them? [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today...]
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Joe Biden	44%	34%	53%	42%	39%	44%	53%	40%	55%	47%	54%	38%	50%	33%	46%	37%	57%	25%	45%	47%	43%	100%	0%	0%	92%	6%	46%	90%	8%	82%	8%	46%	86%	3%	35%
Donald Trump	49%	58%	40%	53%	54%	50%	41%	52%	41%	44%	39%	55%	41%	59%	45%	60%	38%	70%	47%	49%	49%	0%	100%	0%	5%	90%	44%	6%	86%	11%	85%	45%	8%	95%	51%
[VOL] Another candidate	2%	1%	3%	2%	4%	3%	1%	3%	<.5%	3%	3%	2%	3%	3%	3%	3%	1%	<1%	3%	2%	2%	0%	0%	32%	1%	0%	5%	2%	2%	3%	<1%	4%	2%	1%	3%
[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices	2%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	2%	3%	3%	<.5%	1%	3%	2%	4%	3%	3%	<1%	2%	0%	3%	<1%	4%	0%	0%	32%	<.5%	2%	3%	1%	2%	<.5%	4%	3%	2%	<.5%	7%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	3%	3%	3%	3%	2%	2%	2%	2%	3%	5%	2%	2%	1%	2%	3%	0%	2%	4%	2%	<1%	3%	0%	0%	36%	<1%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	4%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	4%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

(Without leaners) Thinking about the upcoming presidential election in 2024, if the election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Joe Biden, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican? FOLLOW UP: Are you definitely or probably voting for them? [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today...]
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Definitely Joe Biden	33%	25%	41%	18%	27%	33%	50%	33%	34%	38%	45%	27%	44%	25%	36%	28%	38%	17%	31%	35%	36%	76%	0%	0%	77%	5%	30%	70%	5%	72%	5%	28%	72%	1%	13%
Probably Joe Biden	7%	6%	8%	18%	6%	7%	<1%	4%	15%	4%	5%	8%	4%	4%	6%	7%	12%	6%	12%	8%	4%	16%	0%	0%	13%	<1%	8%	15%	1%	7%	3%	11%	10%	<1%	14%
Probably Donald Trump	7%	8%	6%	14%	7%	7%	4%	6%	9%	10%	5%	8%	6%	7%	8%	11%	2%	7%	7%	9%	5%	0%	15%	0%	<1%	8%	11%	2%	12%	3%	7%	12%	2%	10%	16%
Definitely Donald Trump	38%	45%	31%	31%	41%	41%	37%	42%	32%	29%	30%	43%	33%	47%	34%	42%	34%	59%	37%	37%	40%	0%	78%	0%	4%	78%	26%	3%	69%	8%	75%	28%	5%	82%	28%
[VOL] Another candidate	5%	4%	5%	4%	8%	3%	2%	5%	3%	4%	4%	5%	4%	6%	5%	7%	3%	2%	5%	5%	4%	2%	3%	32%	2%	3%	8%	4%	4%	3%	3%	8%	4%	3%	3%
[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices	5%	6%	3%	3%	6%	4%	4%	5%	1%	8%	6%	4%	6%	5%	6%	3%	3%	1%	3%	3%	8%	3%	2%	32%	1%	4%	8%	3%	5%	2%	4%	8%	4%	<1%	13%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	5%	6%	5%	11%	4%	5%	2%	4%	7%	6%	4%	5%	3%	5%	5%	2%	7%	8%	5%	3%	4%	3%	2%	36%	2%	2%	8%	4%	4%	5%	4%	7%	2%	3%	13%
NET Biden	40%	31%	49%	37%	34%	40%	50%	37%	49%	43%	50%	35%	48%	30%	42%	35%	50%	23%	42%	43%	39%	92%	0%	0%	90%	5%	39%	85%	6%	79%	7%	39%	82%	2%	27%
NET Trump	45%	53%	38%	45%	48%	48%	41%	48%	40%	39%	36%	51%	39%	54%	42%	53%	36%	65%	44%	46%	45%	0%	93%	0%	5%	86%	37%	5%	81%	11%	81%	39%	7%	91%	44%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

(If not supporting Trump or Biden) If you had to decide between the two today, would you lean more toward:
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Joe Biden, the Democrat	25%	18%	30%	28%	31%	27%	23%	19%	53%	26%	27%	23%	20%	18%	22%	19%	49%	17%	22%	37%	21%	100%	0%	0%	45%	3%	31%	49%	13%	26%	5%	34%	40%	8%	29%
Donald Trump, the Republican	25%	32%	18%	42%	31%	19%	5%	28%	8%	27%	23%	28%	19%	34%	19%	55%	14%	42%	23%	28%	24%	0%	100%	0%	0%	48%	28%	8%	40%	5%	34%	28%	7%	59%	25%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	51%	50%	52%	30%	38%	54%	72%	53%	39%	47%	50%	49%	60%	49%	59%	26%	37%	41%	55%	35%	55%	0%	0%	100%	55%	49%	41%	43%	47%	69%	61%	38%	53%	33%	46%
Number of respondents	88	44	43	20	19	25	15	58	17	11	35	51	24	34	56	11	14	7	21	23	32	22	23	43	9	17	49	27	43	15	22	51	26	18	27
Percent of total electorate	100%	51%	47%	21%	27%	23%	17%	66%	17%	13%	37%	59%	24%	42%	65%	12%	14%	9%	22%	26%	37%	25%	25%	51%	10%	20%	54%	30%	45%	21%	26%	53%	31%	18%	28%

(If not supporting Biden) Would you say there’s some chance you will support Joe Biden or not really any chance?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Some chance	6%	6%	6%	12%	7%	5%	2%	4%	8%	9%	4%	6%	5%	4%	4%	5%	8%	8%	12%	3%	4%	0%	8%	23%	4%	5%	7%	4%	6%	4%	4%	8%	4%	4%	13%
Not really any chance	49%	58%	40%	44%	54%	50%	45%	54%	35%	44%	41%	53%	44%	61%	48%	57%	35%	63%	41%	49%	52%	0%	92%	53%	3%	89%	46%	5%	86%	11%	86%	45%	8%	93%	51%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	2%	2%	2%	0%	2%	<1%	2%	2%	0%	<1%	2%	<.5%	2%	2%	<1%	0%	4%	2%	1%	<1%	0%	<.5%	24%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	4%	2%	<1%	1%	0%	0%
[PREVIOUSLY] Joe Biden	44%	34%	53%	42%	39%	44%	53%	40%	55%	47%	54%	38%	50%	33%	46%	37%	57%	25%	45%	47%	43%	100%	0%	0%	92%	6%	46%	90%	8%	82%	8%	46%	86%	3%	35%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

(If not supporting Trump) Would you say there’s some chance you will support Donald Trump or not really any chance?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Some chance	4%	4%	4%	9%	5%	4%	<.5%	2%	8%	7%	4%	4%	3%	1%	3%	0%	9%	5%	5%	2%	5%	6%	0%	20%	5%	2%	5%	6%	2%	2%	3%	7%	4%	2%	11%
Not really any chance	45%	35%	53%	36%	41%	43%	57%	44%	48%	48%	56%	38%	54%	37%	49%	40%	52%	20%	45%	47%	46%	94%	0%	52%	88%	7%	49%	87%	11%	82%	11%	46%	87%	3%	35%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	3%	2%	2%	0%	2%	2%	2%	3%	<1%	1%	3%	1%	3%	3%	<1%	<1%	5%	3%	2%	<1%	<1%	0%	28%	2%	<1%	2%	2%	<1%	5%	<1%	2%	<1%	0%	3%
[PREVIOUSLY] Donald Trump	49%	58%	40%	53%	54%	50%	41%	52%	41%	44%	39%	55%	41%	59%	45%	60%	38%	70%	47%	49%	49%	0%	100%	0%	5%	90%	44%	6%	86%	11%	85%	45%	8%	95%	51%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

(Recoded to age) In what year were you born?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
18-29	17%	18%	16%	100%	0%	0%	0%	13%	31%	10%	10%	21%	8%	16%	15%	16%	20%	23%	25%	20%	9%	16%	18%	12%	13%	13%	22%	18%	16%	14%	12%	24%	12%	12%	48%
30-44	22%	25%	19%	0%	100%	0%	0%	18%	29%	33%	24%	21%	20%	16%	21%	28%	25%	14%	13%	25%	27%	20%	24%	20%	22%	20%	25%	23%	22%	21%	20%	24%	24%	21%	17%
45-64	29%	26%	32%	0%	0%	100%	0%	30%	23%	33%	35%	26%	37%	26%	30%	23%	28%	29%	23%	22%	43%	29%	30%	25%	29%	33%	24%	26%	31%	30%	31%	26%	26%	35%	23%
65+	28%	26%	29%	0%	0%	0%	100%	35%	12%	19%	26%	28%	31%	38%	29%	28%	21%	31%	32%	30%	20%	33%	23%	24%	32%	28%	27%	30%	27%	31%	31%	22%	35%	28%	8%
Refused	5%	5%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%	5%	4%	5%	4%	4%	4%	5%	5%	6%	3%	7%	2%	2%	2%	5%	19%	4%	6%	2%	3%	5%	5%	6%	4%	3%	5%	5%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

What is the highest educational level that you have completed? [READ LIST]
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Grade school	3%	3%	3%	1%	1%	4%	3%	1%	8%	4%	0%	5%	0%	2%	4%	3%	0%	0%	6%	2%	2%	4%	1%	7%	5%	2%	<1%	3%	2%	5%	2%	2%	2%	0%	14%
High school	24%	23%	25%	41%	11%	22%	27%	22%	30%	21%	0%	39%	0%	38%	22%	22%	24%	36%	35%	21%	17%	21%	29%	16%	27%	29%	17%	22%	27%	21%	27%	24%	17%	29%	34%
Vocational or trade school	5%	7%	4%	5%	8%	5%	3%	5%	5%	7%	0%	8%	0%	8%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	8%	2%	4%	6%	6%	4%	4%	6%	4%	6%	4%	4%	7%	5%	5%	8%
Some college, no degree	20%	18%	23%	24%	28%	17%	19%	19%	26%	18%	0%	33%	0%	33%	17%	25%	24%	26%	25%	24%	15%	17%	24%	12%	21%	24%	20%	18%	22%	21%	21%	20%	18%	24%	19%
Associate’s degree	9%	9%	9%	7%	11%	8%	11%	11%	7%	6%	0%	15%	0%	19%	9%	14%	8%	10%	12%	12%	6%	8%	9%	17%	8%	9%	11%	10%	9%	9%	12%	7%	9%	10%	8%
Bachelor's degree	22%	25%	20%	18%	22%	28%	20%	23%	21%	21%	60%	0%	57%	0%	26%	18%	17%	14%	10%	21%	35%	29%	17%	15%	22%	16%	29%	27%	18%	25%	20%	22%	30%	19%	7%
Graduate or professional degree	15%	15%	15%	3%	19%	16%	16%	18%	4%	23%	40%	0%	43%	0%	15%	11%	22%	7%	7%	12%	24%	16%	12%	22%	14%	16%	15%	14%	15%	12%	14%	17%	18%	13%	10%
[VOL] Refused	1%	2%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<.5%	2%	<1%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	<1%	0%	<1%	<1%	0%	0%	<1%	<1%	6%	0%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	0%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

If Joe Biden were not the Democratic nominee, do you think you would: [READ LIST]
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Definitely vote for the Democratic candidate	30%	23%	37%	22%	24%	30%	43%	29%	33%	37%	39%	25%	39%	22%	34%	26%	32%	13%	31%	30%	33%	65%	2%	13%	71%	3%	27%	63%	5%	68%	5%	23%	66%	<.5%	10%
Probably vote for the Democratic candidate	19%	17%	21%	32%	26%	16%	9%	16%	26%	20%	22%	16%	20%	13%	18%	18%	26%	15%	18%	23%	17%	29%	10%	19%	20%	5%	32%	29%	10%	15%	8%	32%	25%	9%	26%
Probably vote for Donald Trump, the Republican	12%	14%	9%	16%	18%	9%	6%	12%	11%	12%	12%	12%	12%	12%	12%	12%	7%	15%	10%	9%	16%	<1%	22%	7%	2%	20%	11%	1%	21%	3%	19%	12%	1%	18%	25%
Definitely vote for Donald Trump, the Republican	30%	34%	25%	22%	26%	34%	32%	32%	23%	27%	19%	36%	19%	41%	25%	36%	26%	48%	28%	32%	28%	<.5%	60%	1%	2%	68%	14%	2%	55%	6%	60%	20%	3%	66%	19%
[VOL] Another candidate	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	0%	1%	<.5%	2%	<1%	<1%	0%	1%	<1%	2%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<1%	5%	<.5%	<.5%	1%	<.5%	<1%	0%	1%	1%	0%	1%	0%
[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices	2%	3%	<1%	1%	2%	2%	4%	3%	0%	1%	2%	3%	2%	4%	3%	0%	3%	<1%	1%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	16%	0%	2%	4%	<.5%	3%	0%	2%	4%	<.5%	3%	4%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	7%	8%	6%	6%	3%	8%	6%	7%	7%	3%	5%	8%	6%	7%	8%	8%	4%	6%	10%	4%	4%	4%	4%	40%	5%	2%	9%	4%	5%	8%	5%	8%	4%	3%	15%
NET Democratic candidate	49%	39%	58%	54%	51%	46%	52%	45%	59%	57%	62%	42%	60%	35%	52%	44%	58%	28%	48%	53%	50%	94%	11%	32%	91%	8%	59%	93%	15%	83%	13%	55%	91%	9%	36%
NET Trump	41%	49%	34%	37%	44%	44%	38%	44%	34%	38%	30%	48%	31%	53%	37%	48%	33%	64%	39%	41%	44%	1%	82%	8%	4%	88%	26%	3%	76%	9%	79%	32%	4%	84%	45%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

If Donald Trump were not the Republican nominee, do you think you would: [READ LIST]
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Definitely vote for Joe Biden, the Democrat	20%	14%	25%	11%	18%	14%	34%	17%	29%	26%	21%	20%	20%	14%	22%	14%	23%	12%	23%	22%	15%	45%	<1%	2%	60%	2%	8%	45%	2%	50%	3%	12%	44%	<1%	8%
Probably vote for Joe Biden, the Democrat	16%	11%	21%	24%	15%	20%	10%	15%	19%	15%	21%	13%	21%	11%	14%	21%	22%	10%	19%	16%	17%	33%	3%	1%	23%	<1%	27%	34%	2%	23%	2%	23%	29%	2%	20%
Probably vote for the Republican candidate	24%	28%	20%	32%	34%	23%	9%	22%	25%	27%	23%	24%	21%	23%	25%	16%	27%	20%	21%	21%	28%	14%	31%	36%	11%	23%	30%	12%	33%	10%	27%	32%	16%	27%	32%
Definitely vote for the Republican candidate	31%	37%	25%	23%	24%	35%	35%	36%	21%	21%	27%	33%	30%	39%	29%	38%	24%	42%	22%	32%	34%	<1%	59%	20%	<.5%	72%	19%	1%	57%	4%	62%	23%	4%	65%	27%
[VOL] Another candidate	2%	2%	2%	<1%	6%	<1%	2%	2%	<1%	7%	2%	2%	1%	3%	2%	1%	1%	4%	2%	4%	<1%	<.5%	3%	9%	1%	<.5%	5%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	3%	0%
[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices	1%	<1%	1%	2%	2%	1%	<.5%	1%	<1%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	1%	<1%	3%	1%	2%	2%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	6%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	1%	<1%	1%	<1%	2%	1%	<1%	3%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	6%	6%	5%	8%	<1%	6%	9%	7%	3%	2%	4%	6%	5%	8%	6%	6%	2%	10%	10%	4%	4%	6%	3%	26%	4%	2%	10%	4%	3%	9%	3%	7%	5%	2%	8%
NET Republican candidate	54%	65%	45%	55%	58%	58%	44%	58%	47%	48%	50%	58%	52%	62%	54%	54%	50%	62%	43%	53%	63%	15%	90%	55%	12%	95%	49%	13%	90%	15%	89%	55%	20%	92%	60%
NET Biden	36%	26%	46%	35%	33%	34%	45%	32%	48%	41%	42%	33%	41%	26%	37%	35%	45%	22%	43%	38%	32%	78%	3%	3%	83%	2%	35%	79%	4%	73%	5%	35%	72%	2%	29%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

And who would you vote for if the candidates were: [READ LIST] [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Joe Biden, the Democrat	41%	33%	49%	40%	38%	40%	50%	36%	55%	48%	50%	37%	47%	29%	44%	37%	51%	22%	46%	45%	38%	87%	5%	10%	90%	5%	42%	87%	6%	81%	8%	41%	81%	2%	36%
Ron DeSantis [Duh-San-Tis], the Republican	46%	56%	36%	48%	49%	47%	41%	51%	32%	40%	40%	49%	45%	56%	44%	51%	37%	60%	37%	46%	52%	6%	83%	31%	6%	85%	41%	6%	80%	8%	79%	45%	9%	88%	44%
[VOL] Another candidate	1%	2%	1%	0%	<1%	3%	<.5%	1%	1%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	2%	1%	0%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	0%	2%	4%	0%	2%	2%	<.5%	2%	<1%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	<1%
[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices	4%	3%	5%	3%	6%	3%	4%	5%	2%	4%	4%	4%	4%	5%	4%	5%	3%	3%	5%	3%	3%	1%	5%	16%	1%	3%	5%	2%	5%	2%	5%	5%	3%	5%	5%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	7%	7%	8%	9%	7%	7%	4%	6%	11%	6%	4%	9%	3%	8%	7%	7%	7%	12%	10%	5%	5%	5%	5%	39%	4%	5%	9%	4%	6%	8%	7%	8%	6%	2%	14%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

And who would you vote for if the candidates were: [READ LIST] [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Joe Biden, the Democrat	38%	28%	46%	36%	36%	35%	46%	32%	51%	46%	42%	35%	39%	28%	40%	33%	48%	21%	44%	41%	33%	79%	6%	6%	86%	3%	34%	80%	6%	78%	6%	34%	74%	2%	36%
Nikki Haley, the Republican	45%	55%	36%	42%	45%	53%	39%	50%	34%	39%	47%	44%	52%	48%	43%	53%	40%	54%	41%	41%	54%	14%	76%	32%	7%	79%	45%	12%	74%	11%	74%	46%	17%	78%	43%
[VOL] Another candidate	2%	3%	2%	5%	<1%	2%	3%	3%	<1%	2%	1%	3%	<1%	5%	3%	<1%	1%	4%	<1%	3%	4%	0%	4%	2%	0%	3%	2%	<.5%	4%	<1%	4%	2%	<.5%	6%	0%
[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices	5%	5%	5%	1%	6%	3%	7%	6%	2%	6%	5%	5%	4%	7%	6%	4%	4%	4%	2%	5%	4%	2%	5%	20%	1%	8%	5%	2%	6%	2%	8%	4%	3%	6%	4%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	10%	10%	10%	16%	12%	7%	5%	9%	13%	7%	5%	12%	5%	11%	9%	9%	7%	16%	11%	10%	5%	6%	9%	41%	5%	7%	14%	6%	10%	8%	7%	14%	6%	8%	17%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

And who would you vote for if the candidates were: [READ LIST] [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat	43%	30%	54%	42%	41%	42%	49%	41%	47%	54%	54%	37%	52%	33%	46%	40%	46%	25%	45%	46%	43%	88%	4%	28%	91%	5%	45%	88%	8%	80%	9%	44%	84%	4%	31%
Donald Trump, the Republican	48%	58%	38%	49%	52%	50%	41%	50%	45%	40%	36%	55%	39%	57%	42%	56%	45%	70%	47%	48%	47%	5%	92%	9%	6%	89%	41%	7%	84%	10%	83%	45%	8%	93%	51%
[VOL] Another candidate	<1%	1%	<.5%	0%	1%	<.5%	0%	1%	0%	0%	1%	<.5%	2%	<1%	1%	0%	<1%	0%	1%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	4%	<.5%	<1%	<.5%	<.5%	<1%	1%	<1%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	0%
[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices	4%	6%	3%	<1%	3%	4%	8%	5%	1%	1%	5%	4%	5%	6%	5%	4%	4%	0%	1%	3%	6%	5%	<1%	24%	0%	3%	8%	2%	5%	3%	3%	7%	4%	2%	6%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	5%	4%	5%	8%	2%	4%	2%	3%	7%	5%	3%	5%	2%	3%	5%	<1%	4%	5%	6%	2%	4%	2%	2%	35%	2%	3%	5%	2%	3%	6%	4%	4%	2%	<1%	12%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

Thinking again about the 2024 presidential election, who would you vote for if the candidates were: [READ LIST] [IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Joe Biden, the Democrat	33%	26%	39%	24%	27%	35%	42%	31%	34%	44%	42%	27%	43%	22%	35%	26%	40%	21%	33%	33%	34%	73%	<1%	0%	76%	5%	29%	69%	5%	66%	6%	31%	66%	2%	21%
Donald Trump, the Republican	33%	39%	27%	26%	29%	38%	34%	36%	30%	22%	25%	38%	27%	42%	32%	32%	26%	49%	29%	32%	36%	<.5%	67%	1%	3%	69%	20%	3%	61%	7%	65%	24%	4%	71%	25%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent	26%	28%	25%	39%	33%	22%	17%	26%	26%	29%	27%	26%	25%	27%	25%	38%	22%	23%	29%	27%	24%	22%	27%	43%	17%	18%	41%	23%	26%	18%	20%	39%	23%	23%	39%
[VOL] Another candidate	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<1%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<1%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	3%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%
[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices	2%	2%	1%	1%	2%	1%	2%	3%	<.5%	0%	<1%	2%	1%	3%	2%	<1%	2%	0%	<1%	3%	1%	<.5%	0%	20%	<.5%	2%	2%	2%	2%	1%	2%	2%	1%	0%	3%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	6%	6%	7%	10%	9%	3%	4%	5%	9%	5%	4%	7%	4%	6%	6%	3%	10%	7%	8%	4%	5%	4%	5%	32%	3%	6%	7%	4%	6%	8%	7%	4%	5%	4%	11%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Strongly approve	17%	14%	19%	6%	9%	15%	32%	17%	18%	17%	23%	13%	22%	13%	18%	9%	23%	10%	17%	16%	17%	36%	2%	0%	43%	2%	11%	35%	3%	40%	3%	11%	36%	<.5%	9%
Somewhat approve	20%	15%	25%	18%	21%	25%	18%	17%	27%	26%	21%	19%	19%	15%	22%	24%	19%	8%	22%	19%	23%	42%	1%	15%	37%	5%	22%	38%	5%	30%	7%	24%	38%	2%	18%
Somewhat disapprove	12%	11%	12%	24%	15%	8%	6%	10%	17%	12%	13%	11%	13%	8%	10%	11%	17%	13%	14%	14%	9%	12%	9%	21%	9%	9%	16%	13%	10%	14%	8%	13%	13%	6%	22%
Strongly disapprove	49%	56%	41%	47%	54%	49%	43%	54%	35%	44%	41%	53%	45%	61%	47%	55%	39%	64%	44%	49%	51%	7%	87%	46%	8%	84%	48%	11%	81%	10%	82%	50%	12%	90%	46%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	3%	3%	2%	5%	<1%	3%	<1%	2%	4%	<1%	1%	3%	1%	2%	3%	<1%	1%	4%	3%	1%	1%	2%	<1%	19%	2%	<.5%	3%	2%	1%	6%	<1%	2%	1%	1%	5%
NET Approve	37%	29%	44%	24%	30%	39%	50%	33%	45%	44%	44%	32%	41%	28%	40%	33%	43%	18%	39%	36%	39%	78%	3%	15%	80%	7%	33%	73%	8%	70%	10%	35%	74%	2%	27%
NET Disapprove	60%	68%	53%	71%	69%	57%	49%	65%	51%	55%	55%	64%	58%	69%	57%	66%	56%	77%	58%	63%	60%	20%	96%	66%	18%	93%	64%	24%	91%	24%	89%	63%	25%	96%	68%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump.
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very favorable	25%	27%	23%	19%	18%	30%	27%	27%	18%	20%	15%	30%	13%	37%	21%	27%	24%	43%	23%	24%	25%	2%	49%	0%	3%	57%	11%	3%	44%	8%	49%	15%	3%	52%	21%
Somewhat favorable	19%	25%	14%	26%	27%	19%	9%	17%	24%	23%	14%	23%	16%	19%	18%	25%	16%	25%	24%	18%	19%	3%	35%	9%	6%	24%	24%	5%	30%	5%	27%	24%	5%	33%	30%
Somewhat unfavorable	9%	10%	7%	16%	12%	8%	4%	9%	9%	4%	11%	7%	14%	7%	8%	10%	9%	8%	8%	9%	9%	7%	9%	13%	5%	7%	14%	7%	9%	3%	8%	14%	5%	7%	21%
Very unfavorable	45%	36%	53%	38%	43%	41%	58%	44%	45%	51%	58%	37%	56%	36%	50%	37%	51%	21%	42%	48%	45%	87%	6%	54%	83%	12%	50%	82%	15%	79%	14%	46%	86%	6%	24%
[VOL] Have not heard of	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	3%	2%	3%	1%	0%	3%	2%	1%	4%	2%	1%	3%	1%	2%	3%	<1%	0%	4%	3%	<1%	1%	1%	<.5%	24%	3%	<1%	2%	2%	1%	5%	1%	2%	<1%	1%	4%
NET Favorable	44%	52%	37%	45%	46%	48%	36%	45%	42%	44%	29%	53%	29%	56%	38%	53%	40%	68%	48%	42%	44%	5%	84%	9%	9%	81%	35%	9%	75%	13%	76%	39%	8%	85%	51%
NET Unfavorable	54%	46%	60%	54%	54%	49%	62%	54%	54%	55%	69%	44%	70%	43%	58%	47%	60%	29%	50%	57%	54%	93%	16%	67%	88%	18%	63%	89%	24%	82%	22%	59%	92%	14%	45%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden.
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very favorable	16%	13%	19%	6%	8%	14%	31%	17%	14%	17%	21%	13%	19%	16%	18%	13%	19%	9%	15%	17%	16%	34%	2%	4%	40%	3%	12%	34%	3%	36%	3%	12%	35%	<1%	6%
Somewhat favorable	23%	18%	28%	31%	23%	27%	19%	19%	33%	33%	23%	24%	22%	16%	23%	27%	30%	14%	30%	21%	23%	45%	5%	14%	42%	6%	26%	43%	8%	39%	8%	25%	40%	3%	34%
Somewhat unfavorable	14%	15%	13%	28%	22%	9%	5%	12%	21%	12%	16%	13%	15%	10%	13%	14%	19%	14%	15%	18%	11%	15%	11%	22%	10%	10%	22%	15%	12%	10%	9%	22%	14%	11%	20%
Very unfavorable	44%	52%	37%	34%	45%	47%	44%	51%	28%	38%	39%	47%	42%	57%	45%	42%	31%	62%	37%	43%	48%	4%	81%	42%	5%	81%	39%	6%	77%	10%	79%	40%	9%	85%	37%
[VOL] Have not heard of	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	2%	3%	0%	2%	3%	1%	1%	4%	0%	1%	3%	2%	1%	3%	3%	<1%	2%	3%	1%	2%	2%	<1%	17%	2%	<.5%	<1%	2%	<.5%	5%	<1%	2%	2%	0%	4%
NET Favorable	39%	31%	47%	37%	31%	41%	50%	36%	47%	50%	44%	37%	42%	32%	40%	40%	49%	22%	46%	38%	39%	79%	7%	18%	83%	9%	39%	77%	10%	75%	11%	37%	75%	4%	40%
NET Unfavorable	58%	66%	50%	63%	67%	56%	49%	63%	49%	50%	55%	60%	57%	67%	57%	57%	50%	75%	52%	61%	60%	19%	92%	64%	15%	90%	61%	21%	89%	20%	88%	62%	23%	96%	57%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

What types of issues are more important in deciding who to vote for in the upcoming 2024 election? [READ LIST] [IF NEEDED: If you had to choose one …]
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Societal issues such as abortion, guns or democracy	31%	24%	37%	30%	24%	34%	37%	35%	26%	18%	41%	26%	43%	30%	32%	25%	34%	25%	27%	32%	36%	50%	15%	20%	51%	18%	31%	51%	16%	48%	16%	30%	50%	14%	23%
Economic issues such as jobs, taxes or the cost of living	58%	67%	50%	64%	65%	55%	51%	52%	64%	80%	52%	61%	49%	53%	56%	60%	53%	65%	61%	56%	59%	40%	73%	56%	38%	72%	59%	39%	73%	40%	71%	59%	40%	74%	69%
[VOL] Both equal	8%	6%	10%	6%	8%	8%	9%	10%	7%	3%	6%	10%	6%	12%	8%	7%	10%	9%	9%	10%	4%	8%	8%	10%	9%	8%	7%	9%	8%	8%	11%	7%	8%	8%	4%
[VOL] Neither	1%	2%	<1%	0%	3%	<.5%	1%	2%	0%	0%	1%	1%	2%	2%	<1%	5%	1%	0%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<.5%	2%	3%	<.5%	<1%	3%	<.5%	2%	0%	<1%	3%	<.5%	3%	2%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	1%	3%	<1%	0%	2%	2%	1%	3%	0%	<.5%	2%	<.5%	2%	2%	2%	2%	0%	3%	<.5%	0%	1%	1%	11%	2%	2%	0%	1%	1%	4%	2%	<.5%	1%	1%	2%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

And when it comes to the November 2024 election, would you say you’re very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic about voting, not very enthusiastic about voting or not at all enthusiastic about voting?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very enthusiastic	50%	53%	48%	28%	41%	53%	70%	56%	43%	40%	53%	49%	55%	56%	51%	42%	50%	56%	45%	50%	55%	48%	57%	20%	56%	66%	37%	48%	56%	52%	65%	34%	52%	63%	16%
Somewhat enthusiastic	27%	24%	30%	36%	26%	29%	21%	25%	31%	34%	24%	30%	26%	24%	26%	25%	35%	28%	34%	27%	24%	31%	22%	36%	33%	21%	25%	30%	24%	30%	21%	31%	28%	21%	41%
Not very enthusiastic	16%	17%	15%	21%	25%	13%	8%	14%	20%	14%	14%	17%	12%	16%	14%	27%	12%	16%	17%	19%	12%	14%	16%	27%	8%	10%	28%	15%	15%	12%	12%	23%	14%	13%	23%
Not at all enthusiastic	6%	5%	7%	14%	8%	5%	2%	5%	7%	10%	9%	5%	8%	4%	8%	6%	4%	0%	5%	4%	8%	6%	5%	11%	3%	3%	10%	7%	5%	4%	3%	11%	5%	3%	20%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	<1%	<1%	<.5%	0%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	2%	<1%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<1%	<1%	0%	6%	0%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	<1%	<1%	0%	0%
NET Enthusiastic	78%	77%	78%	64%	67%	82%	90%	80%	74%	74%	77%	79%	81%	80%	77%	67%	84%	84%	78%	77%	79%	80%	79%	56%	89%	87%	62%	78%	80%	83%	85%	65%	81%	85%	57%
NET Not enthusiastic	22%	22%	21%	36%	33%	17%	10%	20%	26%	24%	23%	21%	19%	20%	22%	33%	16%	16%	22%	23%	21%	20%	21%	39%	11%	13%	38%	22%	20%	16%	15%	34%	19%	15%	43%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

Thinking about the nation's economy, how would you rate economic conditions today? [READ LIST]
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Excellent	3%	3%	2%	0%	<1%	2%	7%	2%	2%	9%	4%	2%	3%	2%	2%	6%	4%	2%	4%	2%	2%	5%	<1%	0%	7%	<1%	1%	5%	<1%	5%	1%	2%	6%	<.5%	2%
Good	17%	16%	19%	3%	10%	18%	32%	20%	15%	10%	22%	15%	24%	17%	19%	15%	16%	10%	10%	17%	22%	35%	3%	4%	37%	4%	17%	34%	5%	35%	4%	15%	34%	4%	5%
Only fair	26%	24%	29%	32%	28%	29%	19%	22%	38%	22%	30%	25%	32%	16%	26%	21%	41%	15%	32%	24%	25%	35%	17%	34%	32%	15%	30%	32%	19%	33%	16%	31%	33%	16%	34%
Poor	53%	56%	50%	63%	61%	51%	42%	55%	45%	60%	45%	58%	41%	65%	52%	59%	39%	70%	54%	57%	50%	24%	79%	57%	24%	80%	51%	28%	76%	26%	79%	51%	27%	80%	58%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	<1%	<1%	<.5%	1%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<1%	<1%	0%	0%	2%	0%	<1%	0%	<1%	0%	6%	0%	0%	<1%	<1%	0%	1%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	2%
NET Excellent/good	20%	19%	21%	3%	11%	20%	39%	22%	17%	19%	26%	17%	27%	18%	21%	21%	20%	13%	14%	19%	24%	41%	4%	4%	44%	5%	19%	40%	5%	40%	5%	18%	40%	4%	6%
NET Fair/poor	79%	80%	79%	95%	89%	80%	61%	78%	83%	81%	74%	83%	73%	81%	78%	79%	80%	85%	86%	81%	76%	58%	96%	91%	56%	95%	81%	60%	95%	59%	95%	82%	60%	96%	92%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

Do you think abortion should be always legal, mostly legal, mostly illegal or always illegal?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Always legal	33%	23%	41%	35%	39%	29%	34%	33%	32%	36%	40%	28%	39%	30%	33%	36%	40%	18%	33%	34%	33%	57%	12%	27%	58%	13%	31%	57%	13%	59%	12%	31%	55%	12%	25%
Mostly legal	27%	30%	23%	30%	28%	25%	26%	28%	26%	24%	28%	26%	29%	26%	26%	26%	30%	25%	17%	28%	32%	28%	25%	26%	22%	22%	35%	27%	26%	20%	27%	32%	30%	24%	25%
Mostly illegal	21%	24%	19%	24%	15%	26%	18%	21%	21%	21%	22%	21%	23%	19%	22%	22%	11%	31%	21%	23%	20%	8%	34%	18%	9%	35%	19%	9%	32%	10%	32%	20%	7%	36%	27%
Always illegal	12%	14%	11%	9%	14%	15%	12%	11%	16%	12%	6%	16%	5%	15%	11%	11%	14%	16%	19%	10%	9%	4%	21%	6%	5%	22%	10%	3%	20%	6%	20%	10%	4%	20%	18%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	7%	9%	6%	3%	5%	6%	10%	7%	6%	8%	4%	9%	4%	10%	8%	5%	5%	9%	10%	5%	7%	4%	8%	22%	6%	8%	5%	4%	9%	6%	9%	7%	4%	8%	6%
NET Legal	59%	54%	64%	64%	67%	53%	60%	61%	58%	60%	68%	54%	68%	56%	59%	61%	71%	43%	50%	62%	64%	84%	37%	53%	80%	35%	67%	84%	39%	78%	38%	63%	85%	36%	50%
NET Illegal	34%	37%	30%	33%	29%	41%	29%	32%	37%	33%	28%	37%	28%	34%	33%	34%	25%	47%	40%	33%	29%	12%	55%	24%	14%	57%	28%	12%	53%	16%	52%	31%	11%	56%	44%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

(Split A) Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on each of the following:
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) The economy [IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Immigration [IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) National security [IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) The Israeli-Palestinian [pah-luh-stin-ian] conflict [IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Abortion [IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Democracy [IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Joe Biden or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]
(Split B) For each of the following items, tell me whether you support or oppose the policy.
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) A federal law banning abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy [IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Providing additional economic and military support to Ukraine [IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Making it harder for migrants at the southern border to seek asylum in the United States [IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) The tariffs on China imposed by President Trump [IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border [IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you support or oppose the policy. FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?]
Do you think Donald Trump is good for democracy, bad for democracy, or neither good nor bad for democracy?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Good for democracy	34%	38%	29%	20%	31%	41%	34%	38%	21%	30%	26%	39%	27%	46%	30%	41%	26%	55%	32%	30%	36%	2%	66%	9%	4%	67%	24%	3%	61%	6%	65%	27%	3%	72%	24%
Bad for democracy	41%	32%	48%	31%	37%	38%	55%	42%	41%	39%	55%	32%	54%	33%	45%	34%	47%	17%	35%	44%	44%	82%	3%	43%	79%	9%	44%	79%	10%	76%	11%	39%	83%	5%	15%
Neither good nor bad for democracy	24%	26%	22%	48%	30%	18%	11%	19%	34%	31%	18%	27%	18%	19%	23%	23%	27%	25%	31%	24%	18%	16%	30%	31%	15%	23%	30%	16%	28%	15%	23%	32%	14%	22%	58%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	2%	3%	<1%	1%	2%	3%	0%	1%	3%	0%	<1%	2%	<.5%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	4%	2%	1%	2%	<.5%	1%	17%	1%	1%	<1%	1%	1%	3%	1%	1%	<.5%	1%	3%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

(If bad for democracy) Which statement comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right? [READ LIST]
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Donald Trump poses a unique threat to democracy	36%	29%	42%	27%	31%	33%	50%	38%	34%	35%	49%	28%	48%	31%	39%	30%	42%	17%	32%	40%	38%	75%	2%	34%	72%	6%	41%	72%	7%	70%	9%	33%	76%	2%	11%
Donald Trump is not much worse for democracy than typical politicians	4%	2%	5%	2%	4%	5%	3%	3%	5%	4%	5%	3%	6%	1%	4%	4%	4%	0%	3%	3%	5%	5%	1%	6%	6%	3%	2%	5%	3%	4%	3%	4%	5%	2%	4%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	1%	<.5%	2%	2%	2%	0%	2%	<1%	3%	0%	<1%	1%	0%	<1%	1%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	<.5%	<1%	2%	0%	3%	2%	0%	<1%	2%	<.5%	2%	0%	1%	2%	<1%	1%
[PREVIOUSLY] Good for democracy	34%	38%	29%	20%	31%	41%	34%	38%	21%	30%	26%	39%	27%	46%	30%	41%	26%	55%	32%	30%	36%	2%	66%	9%	4%	67%	24%	3%	61%	6%	65%	27%	3%	72%	24%
[PREVIOUSLY] Neither good nor bad for democracy	24%	26%	22%	48%	30%	18%	11%	19%	34%	31%	18%	27%	18%	19%	23%	23%	27%	25%	31%	24%	18%	16%	30%	31%	15%	23%	30%	16%	28%	15%	23%	32%	14%	22%	58%
[PREVIOUSLY] Don’t know/Refused	2%	3%	<1%	1%	2%	3%	0%	1%	3%	0%	<1%	2%	<.5%	2%	2%	1%	<1%	4%	2%	1%	2%	<.5%	1%	17%	1%	1%	<1%	1%	1%	3%	1%	1%	<.5%	1%	3%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

Next, regardless of who you support for president, tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following statements.
Joe Biden is just too old to be an effective president. [IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree...]
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Strongly agree	47%	54%	41%	57%	46%	42%	46%	50%	44%	37%	43%	50%	43%	54%	46%	48%	36%	64%	43%	49%	46%	18%	72%	55%	16%	72%	44%	20%	69%	18%	68%	52%	22%	73%	50%
Somewhat agree	23%	21%	24%	25%	23%	26%	19%	22%	20%	34%	28%	20%	28%	18%	23%	30%	23%	14%	23%	21%	26%	33%	14%	20%	28%	16%	26%	30%	16%	31%	18%	20%	32%	14%	20%
Somewhat disagree	13%	8%	16%	11%	16%	12%	12%	11%	16%	16%	13%	12%	13%	10%	13%	7%	17%	11%	13%	15%	12%	21%	6%	7%	23%	3%	15%	22%	5%	19%	6%	13%	20%	5%	14%
Strongly disagree	15%	14%	16%	7%	12%	16%	21%	15%	18%	12%	16%	15%	16%	14%	16%	10%	21%	7%	17%	14%	15%	26%	6%	5%	31%	6%	12%	26%	7%	26%	7%	13%	25%	5%	14%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	3%	3%	2%	0%	3%	3%	1%	3%	2%	0%	<1%	3%	1%	4%	2%	6%	3%	4%	4%	<.5%	1%	1%	3%	12%	2%	2%	3%	2%	3%	5%	2%	2%	1%	3%	2%
NET Agree	70%	75%	65%	82%	69%	69%	65%	72%	64%	72%	71%	69%	71%	72%	69%	77%	59%	78%	66%	71%	72%	51%	85%	75%	44%	88%	70%	50%	85%	49%	86%	71%	54%	87%	70%
NET Disagree	28%	22%	32%	18%	28%	29%	33%	26%	33%	28%	28%	27%	28%	24%	29%	17%	38%	19%	29%	29%	26%	48%	12%	12%	54%	10%	27%	48%	12%	46%	12%	27%	45%	10%	28%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Donald Trump is just too old to be an effective president. [IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree...]
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Do you think Joe Biden has the personality and temperament to be an effective president?
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Do you think Joe Biden has the mental sharpness to be an effective president?
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Do you think Donald Trump has the personality and temperament to be an effective president?
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Do you think Donald Trump has the mental sharpness to be an effective president?
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Do you think Joe Biden’s policies have helped you personally or hurt you personally?
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Do you think Donald Trump’s policies have helped you personally or hurt you personally?
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Do you think Donald Trump is too conservative, not conservative enough, or not too far either way?
Do you think Joe Biden is too liberal or progressive, not liberal or progressive enough, or not too far either way?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Too liberal or progressive	40%	46%	34%	28%	35%	46%	41%	44%	30%	34%	37%	42%	42%	46%	38%	41%	36%	55%	38%	39%	46%	8%	69%	36%	10%	71%	37%	9%	67%	11%	70%	35%	11%	71%	41%
Not liberal or progressive enough	9%	7%	12%	16%	15%	4%	7%	10%	9%	11%	11%	9%	11%	9%	10%	10%	11%	1%	10%	12%	7%	13%	6%	15%	14%	4%	10%	15%	5%	18%	4%	8%	15%	4%	9%
Not too far either way	47%	43%	51%	54%	43%	48%	49%	44%	54%	55%	50%	45%	47%	42%	48%	43%	49%	41%	50%	48%	45%	75%	23%	34%	73%	24%	49%	73%	26%	65%	25%	52%	71%	22%	46%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	4%	4%	3%	2%	7%	2%	3%	2%	8%	0%	1%	4%	<1%	4%	4%	6%	4%	3%	2%	2%	2%	4%	2%	15%	4%	1%	4%	4%	2%	5%	1%	5%	3%	2%	4%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

(If undecided or persuadable voter) Now I'm going to describe two hypothetical candidates for president. Tell me which of the two candidates you would be more likely to support in the 2024 presidential election.
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Tell me which of the two candidates you would be more likely to support in the 2024 presidential election. [READ LIST]
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Tell me which of the two candidates you would be more likely to support in the 2024 presidential election. [READ LIST]
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Tell me which of the two candidates you would be more likely to support in the 2024 presidential election. [READ LIST]
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) Tell me which of the two candidates you would be more likely to support in the 2024 presidential election. [READ LIST]
(If undecided or persuadable voter) If Joe Biden won the election, do you think it would be good for America or bad for America, or would it not make much difference either way? FOLLOW UP: Is that very or somewhat?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very good	2%	0%	4%	0%	0%	8%	0%	0%	3%	9%	0%	3%	0%	0%	0%	16%	0%	0%	4%	0%	2%	3%	4%	0%	11%	0%	0%	5%	0%	9%	0%	0%	2%	0%	4%
Somewhat good	2%	1%	3%	0%	0%	6%	5%	3%	3%	0%	2%	1%	3%	2%	2%	0%	5%	0%	3%	0%	2%	3%	0%	4%	0%	0%	3%	4%	0%	4%	0%	2%	4%	3%	0%
Somewhat bad	11%	9%	12%	17%	8%	11%	16%	16%	6%	4%	16%	10%	23%	12%	11%	15%	13%	3%	6%	24%	7%	17%	9%	9%	3%	7%	17%	8%	17%	6%	6%	16%	6%	12%	12%
Very bad	32%	41%	24%	28%	34%	21%	40%	43%	3%	46%	41%	30%	38%	46%	39%	27%	12%	37%	10%	37%	48%	13%	43%	37%	16%	54%	33%	13%	53%	14%	50%	32%	23%	44%	34%
Not make much difference either way	45%	41%	52%	55%	58%	44%	34%	34%	77%	40%	37%	51%	31%	36%	38%	42%	70%	48%	72%	37%	37%	60%	45%	36%	58%	39%	46%	64%	30%	41%	42%	49%	63%	41%	47%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	7%	8%	5%	0%	0%	10%	5%	4%	8%	0%	4%	5%	5%	4%	9%	0%	0%	12%	5%	2%	4%	5%	0%	14%	12%	0%	0%	5%	0%	26%	2%	1%	2%	0%	3%
Number of respondents	116	58	57	31	25	34	17	70	29	15	42	72	30	40	70	15	19	12	33	30	40	30	43	43	18	25	59	41	56	22	29	65	40	23	35
Percent of total electorate	100%	52%	47%	24%	28%	25%	14%	57%	27%	13%	31%	66%	21%	36%	59%	13%	17%	11%	28%	24%	35%	27%	35%	38%	17%	22%	48%	37%	44%	22%	25%	53%	36%	17%	29%

(If undecided or persuadable voter) If Donald Trump won the election, do you think it would be good for America or bad for America, or would it not make much difference either way? FOLLOW UP: Is that very or somewhat?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very good	7%	7%	7%	0%	11%	6%	8%	7%	3%	14%	6%	8%	0%	12%	5%	21%	0%	12%	5%	6%	11%	0%	16%	3%	0%	22%	3%	0%	15%	0%	17%	5%	0%	24%	7%
Somewhat good	13%	20%	6%	23%	13%	10%	5%	15%	18%	0%	6%	17%	8%	18%	13%	6%	12%	24%	14%	23%	7%	0%	31%	6%	4%	29%	11%	7%	22%	3%	22%	13%	7%	23%	17%
Somewhat bad	21%	19%	23%	22%	26%	12%	38%	26%	11%	23%	35%	15%	35%	20%	25%	25%	18%	0%	19%	13%	28%	8%	14%	36%	8%	27%	25%	10%	29%	10%	30%	21%	18%	26%	23%
Very bad	26%	20%	30%	18%	32%	21%	39%	30%	18%	28%	32%	23%	35%	27%	28%	29%	30%	5%	19%	38%	30%	48%	7%	28%	36%	8%	30%	39%	17%	36%	16%	27%	51%	6%	14%
Not make much difference either way	25%	27%	24%	37%	18%	36%	5%	16%	45%	26%	17%	30%	16%	16%	22%	9%	40%	39%	39%	18%	18%	44%	28%	9%	37%	15%	27%	36%	16%	23%	8%	34%	23%	17%	35%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	8%	7%	10%	0%	0%	15%	6%	6%	5%	9%	4%	7%	5%	6%	8%	10%	0%	19%	4%	2%	6%	0%	4%	18%	15%	0%	3%	7%	1%	28%	8%	0%	0%	4%	4%
Number of respondents	116	58	57	31	25	34	17	70	29	15	42	72	30	40	70	15	19	12	33	30	40	30	43	43	18	25	59	41	56	22	29	65	40	23	35
Percent of total electorate	100%	52%	47%	24%	28%	25%	14%	57%	27%	13%	31%	66%	21%	36%	59%	13%	17%	11%	28%	24%	35%	27%	35%	38%	17%	22%	48%	37%	44%	22%	25%	53%	36%	17%	29%

(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) To the best of your knowledge, do you think Joe Biden personally profited from his son’s business dealings in Ukraine and China?
Thinking about the investigations into Donald Trump, do you think that Donald Trump has or has not committed any serious federal crimes?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Trump has committed serious federal crimes	53%	47%	59%	65%	53%	45%	58%	51%	63%	54%	62%	49%	61%	44%	56%	49%	64%	31%	57%	56%	51%	91%	18%	61%	89%	18%	63%	90%	23%	84%	17%	62%	91%	13%	50%
Trump has not committed serious federal crimes	37%	41%	34%	27%	30%	45%	40%	41%	25%	37%	29%	42%	31%	48%	33%	41%	31%	63%	35%	38%	37%	4%	71%	9%	8%	73%	25%	6%	65%	9%	71%	28%	6%	78%	29%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	9%	12%	8%	8%	16%	10%	2%	8%	12%	9%	9%	9%	8%	8%	11%	11%	4%	5%	8%	7%	12%	4%	11%	30%	4%	9%	11%	4%	12%	7%	12%	10%	3%	9%	21%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

What comes closer to your view about Donald Trump's actions after the 2020 election? [READ LIST]
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
He was just exercising his right to contest the election	44%	53%	36%	43%	46%	48%	37%	49%	33%	35%	33%	50%	35%	58%	41%	46%	39%	62%	39%	45%	45%	6%	81%	18%	9%	79%	36%	8%	76%	11%	79%	38%	6%	86%	43%
He went so far that he threatened American democracy	50%	42%	58%	55%	49%	46%	57%	48%	59%	56%	62%	44%	60%	39%	53%	48%	58%	29%	54%	53%	49%	91%	14%	53%	87%	16%	59%	88%	20%	83%	16%	56%	92%	10%	41%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	6%	5%	7%	2%	5%	6%	6%	4%	8%	8%	5%	6%	5%	3%	6%	6%	3%	10%	7%	2%	6%	3%	5%	29%	5%	5%	5%	4%	5%	7%	5%	6%	2%	3%	16%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) As you may know, Donald Trump will face a federal criminal trial in March for his actions after the 2020 election. Do you think it is likely or unlikely that he will be convicted at the end of the trial? FOLLOW UP: Is that very or somewhat?
(Question withheld from state cross-tabs because of small sample size. See full cross-tabs.) And if Donald Trump were convicted and sentenced to prison but were still the Republican nominee, would you vote for … [READ LIST]
Are you, or is any member of your household, a member of a labor union? [IF YES: Is that you, another household member, or both you and another household member?]
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Yes, you are a member	3%	4%	2%	5%	2%	3%	4%	3%	1%	7%	<1%	4%	<1%	5%	4%	2%	3%	<1%	4%	4%	2%	3%	3%	2%	4%	2%	4%	3%	3%	4%	2%	4%	3%	3%	1%
Yes, another member of your household is a member	5%	4%	5%	9%	7%	2%	4%	4%	6%	4%	5%	5%	2%	6%	6%	2%	5%	4%	5%	6%	5%	7%	4%	0%	7%	2%	5%	7%	3%	7%	4%	3%	7%	3%	2%
Yes, you and another member of your household are members	1%	<1%	2%	4%	<1%	0%	<1%	<.5%	3%	0%	<.5%	2%	0%	<1%	<1%	0%	<1%	5%	0%	3%	0%	1%	2%	0%	2%	1%	<1%	1%	1%	<.5%	<1%	2%	<1%	1%	2%
No	89%	90%	89%	77%	89%	95%	91%	91%	87%	86%	93%	88%	96%	88%	88%	91%	91%	91%	89%	86%	92%	88%	90%	92%	85%	93%	89%	87%	91%	86%	92%	88%	88%	92%	92%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	2%	2%	2%	5%	2%	0%	0%	1%	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	1%	2%	4%	0%	0%	2%	2%	0%	1%	2%	6%	2%	<1%	2%	2%	1%	2%	<1%	2%	2%	<1%	2%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

Are you currently personally paying off any student loans for yourself or your family?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Yes	19%	17%	20%	24%	28%	20%	8%	20%	16%	22%	26%	15%	25%	17%	22%	11%	17%	15%	10%	20%	27%	20%	17%	23%	19%	18%	22%	20%	19%	18%	19%	19%	20%	20%	19%
No	80%	81%	79%	76%	69%	79%	92%	79%	84%	77%	73%	84%	74%	82%	76%	87%	82%	85%	88%	78%	73%	79%	81%	71%	80%	82%	77%	79%	81%	80%	80%	79%	80%	79%	81%
[VOL] Not paying loans but spouse is paying loans	<1%	<1%	<1%	0%	3%	0%	0%	<1%	0%	2%	<.5%	<1%	0%	1%	<1%	2%	0%	0%	<1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	<1%	0%	<.5%	1%	0%	1%	0%
[VOL] Not paying loans but child is paying loans	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<.5%	<.5%	0%	0%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused	<1%	<1%	<.5%	0%	0%	0%	<1%	<.5%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	<1%	0%	<1%	0%	<1%	0%	<1%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	6%	<1%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	2%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	0%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

Now just a few questions for demographic purposes... Are you of Hispanic origin or descent, such as Mexican, Dominican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, or some other Spanish background?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Yes	24%	25%	23%	44%	32%	19%	10%	0%	100%	0%	16%	29%	0%	0%	21%	29%	34%	19%	31%	28%	14%	30%	20%	13%	33%	16%	22%	32%	17%	30%	13%	29%	27%	15%	41%
No	75%	73%	77%	56%	67%	81%	88%	99%	0%	98%	84%	70%	100%	99%	77%	70%	64%	81%	68%	72%	85%	70%	79%	77%	67%	83%	77%	68%	81%	68%	85%	70%	73%	84%	57%
[VOL] Refused	1%	2%	<.5%	<1%	<1%	0%	1%	<1%	0%	2%	<.5%	1%	0%	<1%	2%	<1%	2%	0%	1%	0%	1%	<.5%	1%	10%	0%	2%	<1%	0%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	0%	<1%	2%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

Would you consider yourself: [IF biracial or multi-racial ask: What races would that be?]
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
White	76%	76%	77%	77%	69%	77%	83%	98%	55%	0%	81%	74%	98%	97%	74%	78%	72%	87%	70%	80%	81%	73%	79%	69%	69%	82%	79%	73%	79%	70%	82%	75%	73%	84%	70%
Black or African American	5%	6%	5%	5%	8%	3%	6%	0%	5%	41%	7%	5%	0%	0%	7%	2%	4%	2%	7%	4%	4%	8%	4%	0%	9%	6%	2%	8%	4%	9%	4%	4%	9%	2%	7%
Asian or Asian American	2%	1%	3%	2%	4%	2%	<1%	0%	1%	17%	3%	1%	0%	0%	3%	0%	1%	0%	<1%	1%	4%	2%	1%	6%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	3%	2%	3%	<1%	1%
Native American	4%	3%	5%	6%	4%	8%	<.5%	0%	6%	29%	<1%	7%	0%	0%	2%	11%	8%	4%	9%	5%	2%	5%	4%	4%	7%	<1%	5%	6%	3%	6%	3%	4%	5%	3%	8%
[VOL] Some other race (specify)	6%	6%	6%	5%	5%	5%	6%	2%	16%	2%	4%	6%	2%	3%	5%	4%	10%	5%	8%	4%	6%	6%	5%	9%	7%	5%	5%	5%	6%	4%	6%	7%	5%	4%	8%
[VOL] More than one race	2%	2%	1%	<1%	4%	<1%	<.5%	0%	2%	12%	3%	<1%	0%	0%	2%	<1%	<1%	2%	<.5%	3%	1%	1%	2%	0%	1%	<.5%	2%	1%	2%	2%	2%	<1%	1%	2%	0%
[VOL] Refused	5%	7%	3%	4%	6%	3%	3%	0%	15%	0%	2%	6%	0%	0%	7%	5%	4%	0%	5%	4%	2%	5%	5%	11%	6%	4%	4%	5%	5%	7%	2%	6%	4%	4%	5%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate, or conservative? FOLLOW UP: (If liberal or conservative) Is that very or somewhat?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Very liberal	10%	5%	14%	10%	16%	7%	10%	13%	8%	0%	11%	9%	13%	12%	8%	8%	21%	8%	12%	13%	7%	19%	2%	10%	27%	2%	6%	22%	1%	27%	2%	3%	21%	2%	3%
Somewhat liberal	9%	7%	12%	13%	4%	11%	9%	10%	6%	12%	12%	8%	12%	9%	11%	8%	6%	6%	4%	12%	11%	17%	2%	3%	21%	2%	7%	18%	2%	17%	3%	8%	16%	2%	10%
Moderate	36%	38%	35%	43%	44%	33%	33%	35%	38%	43%	44%	32%	40%	32%	38%	33%	39%	27%	30%	39%	42%	47%	26%	36%	34%	20%	56%	45%	29%	36%	22%	51%	46%	22%	40%
Somewhat conservative	20%	21%	18%	22%	20%	19%	15%	18%	25%	22%	15%	23%	15%	20%	20%	25%	13%	23%	26%	16%	18%	8%	30%	25%	10%	28%	17%	8%	29%	9%	30%	20%	8%	28%	31%
Very conservative	21%	25%	18%	9%	13%	28%	29%	22%	19%	18%	15%	25%	17%	26%	19%	22%	19%	35%	26%	18%	21%	5%	37%	16%	5%	47%	9%	4%	36%	7%	42%	13%	5%	44%	11%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	3%	4%	3%	2%	3%	2%	4%	2%	4%	5%	3%	3%	4%	1%	4%	3%	2%	<1%	3%	2%	2%	4%	2%	10%	3%	1%	4%	3%	2%	4%	1%	5%	3%	2%	6%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

Which of the following general income categories is your total household income before taxes? [IF NEEDED: I just want to remind you that you are completely anonymous. We only use this information in aggregate form to ensure we have a representative group of people.]
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Under $25,000	10%	5%	15%	11%	5%	10%	13%	9%	11%	21%	3%	14%	4%	12%	8%	15%	17%	10%	44%	0%	0%	10%	10%	14%	14%	9%	7%	11%	9%	14%	9%	8%	11%	7%	19%
At least $25,000 but under $50,000	13%	11%	15%	24%	9%	9%	14%	11%	20%	11%	7%	17%	5%	15%	10%	15%	18%	23%	56%	0%	0%	14%	13%	10%	18%	11%	12%	16%	10%	14%	11%	15%	14%	12%	18%
At least $50,000 but under $100,000	35%	35%	34%	41%	40%	27%	38%	34%	41%	30%	31%	37%	29%	38%	34%	37%	34%	38%	0%	100%	0%	37%	35%	18%	32%	32%	43%	38%	34%	36%	33%	36%	35%	37%	34%
At least $100,000 but under $200,000	23%	27%	19%	15%	27%	35%	15%	27%	14%	22%	33%	17%	36%	21%	25%	15%	21%	24%	0%	0%	66%	22%	23%	28%	22%	25%	22%	21%	25%	21%	26%	21%	23%	26%	17%
$200,000 or more	12%	15%	10%	3%	17%	17%	10%	14%	7%	11%	22%	6%	24%	7%	16%	7%	6%	4%	0%	0%	34%	12%	12%	12%	9%	17%	9%	10%	14%	10%	14%	12%	14%	12%	6%
[VOL] Refused	7%	7%	6%	6%	3%	3%	10%	5%	8%	3%	3%	8%	3%	7%	7%	11%	5%	1%	0%	0%	0%	4%	7%	19%	4%	6%	7%	4%	8%	5%	6%	8%	3%	7%	7%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Democrat	27%	17%	36%	21%	28%	27%	31%	22%	38%	38%	26%	28%	24%	21%	27%	27%	33%	23%	37%	25%	24%	57%	3%	10%	100%	0%	0%	63%	0%	71%	2%	14%	56%	<.5%	18%
Republican	33%	40%	27%	25%	30%	38%	34%	38%	22%	28%	29%	36%	30%	44%	31%	31%	32%	48%	28%	31%	40%	4%	62%	19%	0%	100%	0%	0%	64%	6%	78%	14%	7%	68%	26%
Independent	33%	35%	30%	43%	37%	28%	32%	35%	31%	28%	39%	29%	42%	30%	34%	37%	29%	25%	27%	40%	29%	34%	30%	44%	0%	0%	100%	33%	29%	16%	15%	65%	33%	26%	44%
Another party	3%	4%	3%	7%	2%	4%	2%	3%	4%	4%	4%	3%	2%	4%	4%	1%	3%	5%	2%	3%	6%	2%	5%	3%	0%	0%	0%	2%	5%	3%	4%	3%	2%	6%	3%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	3%	4%	3%	3%	3%	3%	<1%	2%	6%	3%	1%	4%	2%	2%	4%	5%	2%	0%	6%	<1%	1%	2%	<1%	23%	0%	0%	0%	2%	2%	5%	2%	4%	2%	<1%	9%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

(If independent, another party, or don't know on partisanship) And as of today, do you lean more to: [READ LIST]
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
The Democratic Party	40%	36%	42%	46%	42%	34%	43%	40%	47%	29%	49%	33%	46%	34%	38%	33%	60%	31%	38%	48%	39%	79%	7%	22%	-	-	43%	100%	0%	57%	13%	42%	78%	7%	30%
The Republican Party	47%	53%	41%	46%	50%	48%	46%	48%	38%	55%	41%	52%	44%	52%	47%	60%	33%	45%	40%	44%	51%	13%	84%	32%	-	-	46%	0%	100%	21%	72%	47%	12%	85%	52%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	14%	11%	17%	9%	8%	18%	11%	12%	15%	16%	10%	15%	10%	14%	15%	8%	6%	24%	23%	8%	10%	8%	10%	46%	-	-	10%	0%	0%	23%	15%	11%	10%	8%	18%
Number of respondents	243	124	116	62	47	68	57	157	59	22	116	123	84	72	157	32	32	22	52	93	79	106	106	31			207	100	111	42	43	158	98	74	50
Percent of total electorate	100%	50%	48%	23%	23%	25%	24%	64%	24%	9%	42%	56%	30%	34%	63%	15%	13%	9%	21%	39%	32%	43%	44%	13%			83%	40%	47%	18%	17%	64%	40%	31%	20%

Combined: Party identification and leaners
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
The Democratic Party	43%	33%	52%	46%	45%	39%	46%	38%	57%	48%	48%	40%	45%	33%	43%	41%	54%	32%	50%	46%	38%	88%	5%	26%	100%	0%	43%	100%	0%	84%	5%	44%	85%	2%	35%
The Republican Party	52%	62%	42%	50%	51%	55%	50%	57%	37%	47%	47%	55%	50%	62%	51%	56%	44%	61%	42%	50%	58%	9%	91%	42%	0%	100%	46%	0%	100%	10%	92%	48%	12%	95%	55%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	5%	5%	6%	5%	4%	6%	4%	5%	6%	5%	5%	5%	4%	5%	6%	3%	2%	7%	8%	4%	4%	3%	3%	32%	0%	0%	10%	0%	0%	5%	3%	8%	3%	2%	10%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

† Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Catholic	19%	19%	18%	15%	16%	22%	18%	13%	39%	8%	13%	22%	10%	15%	15%	28%	19%	24%	22%	19%	17%	20%	18%	13%	26%	19%	14%	20%	18%	23%	18%	16%	18%	18%	22%
Protestant (Christian)	29%	29%	29%	25%	19%	30%	37%	30%	22%	37%	30%	28%	29%	30%	31%	17%	27%	33%	31%	23%	33%	21%	38%	16%	19%	40%	22%	18%	38%	20%	38%	27%	20%	38%	30%
Mormon (LDS)	4%	4%	3%	5%	3%	4%	3%	5%	1%	0%	5%	3%	7%	4%	3%	4%	3%	8%	3%	5%	3%	2%	5%	5%	1%	5%	4%	2%	5%	2%	7%	2%	2%	6%	4%
Jewish	3%	2%	3%	1%	<1%	5%	3%	4%	<1%	2%	3%	2%	4%	3%	4%	<1%	1%	0%	2%	<1%	6%	4%	1%	5%	4%	2%	2%	3%	2%	4%	3%	2%	4%	1%	0%
Muslim	<1%	1%	0%	0%	3%	0%	0%	0%	2%	2%	<1%	<1%	0%	0%	<.5%	0%	3%	0%	3%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	2%	0%	0%	1%	0%	2%	0%	1%	0%	0%
[VOL] Christian (includes Baptist, Lutheran, Episcopalian, Methodist, Adventist, Presbyterian)	6%	4%	8%	4%	5%	7%	7%	7%	3%	11%	3%	8%	4%	8%	7%	3%	7%	1%	9%	5%	4%	6%	5%	11%	5%	6%	6%	4%	7%	6%	6%	6%	6%	5%	5%
[VOL] Greek/Russian Orthodox	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Some other religion (specify)	3%	3%	4%	5%	6%	3%	1%	2%	<1%	16%	2%	4%	2%	2%	2%	4%	5%	5%	4%	4%	2%	2%	4%	4%	4%	2%	4%	3%	3%	4%	3%	3%	3%	4%	3%
No religious affiliation	34%	35%	34%	43%	45%	29%	28%	38%	30%	21%	41%	31%	42%	35%	34%	42%	33%	28%	25%	42%	34%	44%	25%	39%	39%	22%	43%	48%	22%	42%	22%	40%	44%	25%	34%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	2%	2%	1%	2%	2%	<.5%	3%	2%	1%	1%	2%	2%	1%	2%	3%	1%	2%	1%	1%	2%	<1%	<1%	3%	6%	<1%	1%	4%	1%	3%	<1%	1%	4%	2%	2%	1%
Number of respondents	584	277	301	110	111	186	151	382	142	53	259	321	190	190	347	79	92	66	140	207	203	263	279	42	156	191	203	255	300	174	198	212	255	222	82
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	63%	26%	38%	59%	13%	16%	12%	24%	35%	34%	45%	48%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	36%	44%	38%	14%

† (If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Yes	21%	21%	22%	19%	15%	23%	26%	21%	15%	40%	17%	24%	16%	24%	23%	13%	22%	24%	27%	17%	21%	12%	31%	15%	10%	33%	16%	11%	31%	13%	32%	18%	11%	33%	22%
No	21%	20%	22%	19%	20%	20%	22%	24%	12%	20%	24%	19%	29%	21%	21%	13%	23%	24%	19%	20%	23%	21%	20%	24%	20%	20%	23%	18%	22%	19%	22%	20%	22%	19%	18%
[VOL] Refused	2%	2%	2%	1%	0%	1%	4%	1%	<.5%	6%	2%	2%	<.5%	2%	2%	2%	0%	0%	1%	1%	2%	<1%	2%	5%	1%	2%	<1%	1%	2%	1%	2%	2%	<1%	2%	2%
[PREVIOUSLY] Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, no religious affiliation or refused	57%	58%	54%	61%	64%	55%	48%	54%	73%	33%	57%	56%	55%	53%	54%	71%	56%	52%	52%	63%	54%	67%	47%	57%	68%	44%	61%	70%	45%	67%	44%	60%	66%	46%	57%
Number of respondents	584	277	301	110	111	186	151	382	142	53	259	321	190	190	347	79	92	66	140	207	203	263	279	42	156	191	203	255	300	174	198	212	255	222	82
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	63%	26%	38%	59%	13%	16%	12%	24%	35%	34%	45%	48%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	36%	44%	38%	14%

Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Donald Trump	38%	45%	32%	28%	37%	46%	38%	46%	24%	26%	33%	42%	38%	51%	35%	40%	31%	63%	30%	40%	42%	2%	75%	12%	<.5%	78%	30%	2%	70%	5%	76%	30%	0%	100%	0%
Joe Biden	43%	35%	50%	30%	48%	39%	54%	40%	49%	53%	56%	35%	52%	31%	44%	43%	58%	18%	45%	43%	45%	85%	7%	33%	89%	10%	43%	85%	10%	82%	11%	41%	100%	0%	0%
I did not vote	14%	14%	13%	40%	11%	11%	4%	10%	24%	17%	6%	19%	7%	12%	15%	15%	11%	12%	22%	13%	9%	11%	15%	26%	9%	11%	19%	11%	15%	10%	10%	21%	0%	0%	100%
[VOL] Someone else	2%	3%	<1%	2%	2%	1%	1%	2%	<1%	1%	2%	1%	2%	2%	3%	0%	0%	0%	<1%	2%	1%	<1%	1%	10%	0%	<1%	3%	<.5%	2%	0%	1%	4%	0%	0%	0%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	3%	3%	4%	1%	2%	3%	3%	3%	2%	3%	2%	3%	<1%	4%	4%	2%	0%	6%	2%	1%	3%	1%	3%	20%	2%	<1%	5%	1%	2%	4%	1%	4%	0%	0%	0%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

(Excluding "I did not vote") Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Donald Trump	45%	53%	37%	45%	41%	52%	40%	51%	31%	31%	36%	51%	41%	58%	41%	47%	34%	72%	38%	47%	46%	2%	87%	16%	<.5%	87%	37%	3%	83%	5%	85%	38%	0%	100%	-
Joe Biden	50%	41%	58%	49%	54%	43%	56%	44%	65%	64%	60%	43%	56%	35%	51%	50%	66%	21%	58%	49%	50%	95%	8%	44%	97%	11%	53%	95%	12%	90%	12%	52%	100%	0%	-
[VOL] Someone else	2%	3%	<1%	3%	3%	1%	1%	2%	1%	2%	2%	2%	2%	3%	3%	0%	0%	0%	1%	2%	2%	1%	1%	13%	0%	1%	4%	<1%	3%	0%	1%	5%	0%	0%	-
[VOL] Don't know/Refused	4%	3%	4%	2%	2%	4%	3%	3%	2%	4%	2%	4%	<1%	5%	4%	3%	0%	7%	3%	2%	3%	1%	3%	27%	2%	<1%	6%	2%	3%	5%	1%	5%	0%	0%	-
Number of respondents	518	242	271	71	101	170	151	351	115	45	253	259	183	165	306	72	79	61	112	184	192	239	249	30	148	177	167	233	261	163	186	169	260	231
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	12%	23%	30%	31%	67%	21%	10%	40%	59%	28%	38%	59%	13%	15%	12%	21%	35%	37%	45%	48%	6%	29%	35%	31%	44%	51%	32%	36%	32%	50%	45%

The Siena College Research Institute will guarantee your anonymity [an-a-nim-a-tee]. However, if you would be open to commenting on the issues in this survey, would you like to be contacted by a reporter?
	Registered Voters	Gender		Age				Race/Ethnicity			Education		Race/Education		Region				Income			2024 Vote Choice			Party I.D.			Party I.D. + Leaners		Party Reg.			2020 Vote
	Registered Voters	Men	Women	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	White	Hispanic	Oth.	B.A.+	No B.A.	White, college	White, no college	Maricopa County	North / East	Pima County	West	Under $50k	$50-100k	Over $100k	Biden	Trump	Oth.	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Dem.	Rep.	Dem.	Rep.	Oth.	Biden	Trump	Did not vote
Yes	28%	34%	24%	24%	33%	28%	30%	28%	25%	39%	35%	25%	36%	23%	29%	30%	24%	28%	29%	29%	32%	29%	28%	27%	33%	30%	25%	32%	26%	34%	27%	25%	34%	26%	22%
No	72%	66%	76%	76%	67%	72%	70%	72%	75%	61%	65%	75%	64%	77%	71%	70%	76%	72%	71%	71%	68%	71%	72%	73%	67%	70%	75%	68%	74%	66%	73%	75%	66%	74%	78%
Number of respondents	603	287	310	113	115	189	157	392	147	56	269	328	195	194	359	84	92	68	142	213	212	267	293	43	161	199	207	261	310	180	207	216	260	231	85
Percent of total electorate	100%	47%	52%	17%	22%	29%	28%	64%	24%	10%	37%	62%	26%	38%	60%	14%	15%	12%	23%	35%	35%	44%	49%	7%	27%	33%	33%	43%	52%	30%	34%	35%	43%	38%	14%

Party I.D. is self-identified party, without leaners; independents include only self-identified independents. Party registration is the respondent’s party as listed on the voter file. † Asked of respondents starting Oct. 23.

Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College polls of 3,662 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3, 2023. When all states are joined together, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 2 percentage points for the likely electorate. The margin of sampling error for each state poll is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada, plus or minus 4.5 points in Georgia, plus or minus 4.6 points in Pennsylvania and plus or minus 4.8 points in Wisconsin.

Sample

The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

The L2 voter file for each state was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and home ownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate, based on prior Times/Siena polls, were calculated for each stratum. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Fielding

The samples for each state were stratified by party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 94 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR, and Spanish-speaking interviewers were assigned to the modeled Hispanic sample. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 12 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 19 percent in Nevada and 13 percent in Arizona.

Weighting — registered voters

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the six state samples were weighted separately to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters by state.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls)

• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses)

• Gender (L2 data)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Home ownership (L2 model)

• State regions (NYT classifications by county or city)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Vote method in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Census block group density (A.C.S. 5-Year Census Block Group data)

• City type (Nevada only, added based on a post-hoc analysis of the difference between the weighted sample and voter file parameters. The weight had no meaningful effect on the topline result.)

• Census tract educational attainment (Georgia only, added based on a post-hoc analysis of the difference between the weighted sample and voter file parameters. The weight had no meaningful effect on the topline result.)

Finally, the six state samples were balanced to each represent one-sixth of the sum of the weights.

Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

Third, the six state samples were weighted separately to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported vote intention. The final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was four-fifths based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intention, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

Finally, the six state samples were balanced to each represent one-sixth of the sum of the weights.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full battleground sample of registered voters is 1.29. The design effect for the likely electorate is 1.46, which includes the added variance due to incorporating the probability that a respondent will participate in the 2024 election.

Correction:

Nov. 14, 2023

An earlier version of the methodology statement, using language intended for a previous poll, inaccurately described the weighting process as it related to the sample selection process. As correctly detailed in the sampling section, all registered voters in each state had an equal probability of being selected, controlling for each stratum’s expected response rate and telephone coverage on the voter file. The polls did not oversample Republican voters, and the weighting process did not account for any such oversample.