But China’s imports disappointed in November, dropping by 0.6 from a year earlier to US$223.5 billion, compared to 3 per cent growth in October, pointing to weak domestic demand.

“China’s overall trade is still sluggish, and this trend is likely to persist throughout next year,” said Ding Shuang, chief Greater China economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

China’s exports remain fragile amid geopolitical complications and uncertainties in the external market.

And they stood in contrast with robust growth in South Korea, as shipments rose for a second month in a row after increasing by 7.8 per cent last month compared to a year earlier.

“Net exports are likely to provide a negative contribution to China’s economy next year. In contrast, import data will show an upwards sign, as domestic demand is becoming a pillar pulling the economy,” Ding added.

China’s shipments to the US grew for the first time since July last year, rising by 7.35 per cent in November, year on year, having fallen by 8.19 per cent in October.

However, exports to the European Union fell by 14.51 per cent, down further from a fall of 12.56 per cent in October.

China’s exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), meanwhile, dropped by 7.07 per cent from a year earlier in November, although the decline was narrower than the fall of 15.1 per cent in October.

But exports to the Asean bloc could improve next year, according to Ding, amid US-led de-risking moves and supply chain shifts, with Beijing being pushed to boost intermediate goods trade – exports that are destined for consumers in a final destination market but to the next country along a the supply chain – with the region.

China’s total trade surplus in November, meanwhile, stood at US$68.3 billion, up from US$56.5 billion in October.

“We think China’s exports are close to bottoming out and we see a gradual recovery in exports going into 2024, similar to what we are seeing in many other Asian economies. Nevertheless, the export recovery will only be modest and gradual in 2024, as we believe global growth will be subdued, particularly in Europe and the US,” said Jeremy Zook, director of Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings.

Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, agreed it is unclear if exports can contribute as a growth pillar for China into next year.

And as the economies in the European Union and the US continue to cool, China would still need to rely on domestic demand as the main driver of growth next year, Zhang added.

“There is a consensus that the fiscal policy will turn expansionary next year. How aggressive the fiscal policy will be is unclear at this stage. The central economic working conference next week may shed some light,” Zhang said.

The meeting comes at a time when Beijing needs to navigate through a global economic slowdown, which is casting a shadow of uncertainty for China’s trade outlook, along with persistent pressure from the property sector and local government debt issues.

“To mitigate this downward trade trend, Beijing’s top priority is to reduce the frequency of policy changes,” said Chen Zhiwu, chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong.

“Continued policy swings can be a vicious circle.”

China’s exports are, though, likely to improve next year, with Nomura’s chief China economist Lu Ting predicting a fall of just 1.5 per cent next year from a drop of 5 per cent in 2023.

“China’s exports may still face strong headwinds into 2024, highly restrictive interest rates across developed markets may finally weigh on the global economy and dampen demand for China’s products,” said analysts at Nomura.