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'It's all track-dependent': Tallahassee could still see strong winds, rain bands from Ian

Jeff Burlew
Tallahassee Democrat

As Hurricane Ian’s forecast track continued to shift to the south and east, its chances of bringing widespread damage to Tallahassee dimmed, though not entirely.

Kristian Oliver, meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said Tallahassee could see sustained winds between 30 and 40 mph with higher gusts and 3 to 4 inches of rain from Ian, with impacts arriving as early as late Wednesday and lasting into Friday.

However, those wind speeds and rainfall totals might not materialize depending on how much farther away the forecast track moves. On Tuesday afternoon, the Tallahassee area remained near the western edge of the cone of uncertainty.

Live updates:Tallahassee 'not out of the woods' as Category 3 Hurricane Ian eyes Florida

Live Ian tracker and model mixer:https://data.tallahassee.com/storm/

The latest:Venice now looks like Florida landfall for shifting Hurricane Ian

“The storm has tracked a little bit more to the south and east and kind of nudged in that direction over the last 12 to 24 hours,” Oliver said. “That might shift our values down a little bit. It’s all track-dependent at this point.”

Ian expected to make landfall near Fort Myers

Ian made landfall in Cuba before re-emerging in the Gulf of Mexico with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center’s forecast as of 11 a.m. Tuesday. It was expected to make landfall Wednesday perhaps near Fort Myers as a major hurricane.

Though it’s expected to encounter increasing shear by Wednesday, Ian isn’t expected to “significantly weaken” by landfall, NHC forecasters said.

“The NHC intensity forecast continues to call for an extremely dangerous hurricane landfall for southwestern Florida,” the NHC said.

The 11 a.m. forecast advisory shows that the Big Bend coastline between Indian Pass and the Aucilla River could see 1 to 3 feet of surge.

Leon County’s Emergency Operations Center remained only partially activated. Kevin Peters, director of Emergency Management, said he did not expect impacts on a level of hurricanes that have hit the area in the recent past.

“During the next few days, we have the possibility for the bands of rain storms to come through and breezy conditions,” Peters said. “But at this point, no indication from the National Weather Service that sustained tropical storm force winds will occur in Leon County based on this latest forecast.”

Peters said state emergency officials have not requested any assistance yet from Leon County, including opening shelters. Leon County Schools Superintendent Rocky Hanna said Monday that seven schools, mostly high schools, would serve as shelters if needed.

“We have identified locations and resources that if a task comes from the state, we can coordinate with the school district if needed,” Peters said. “Counties in southwest Florida are opening additional shelters in their communities to provide safe places for their local residents to evacuate to.”

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee said downed trees and power lines were still possible across the area, along with storm surge in Apalachee Bay and dangerous rip currents and high surf all along the Big Bend coast.

This GOES-East GeCcolor satellite image taken at 9:56 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2022, and provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), shows Hurricane Ian passing over western Cuba. Hurricane Ian tore into western Cuba on Tuesday as a major hurricane, with nothing to stop it from intensifying into a catastrophic Category 4 storm before it hits Florida, where officials ordered 2.5 million people to evacuate before it crashes ashore Wednesday. (NOAA via AP )

A tropical storm watch remained in effect for coastal Franklin County to coastal and inland Dixie County. Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are in effect for gulf marine waters. A storm surge watch continued for the coast from the Aucilla River to the Suwannee River.

The Wakulla County Sheriff's Office posted on Facebook that the coastal county may be "spared the worst of the storm" though rain could be a problem.

"Forecast for rain totals have improved some with the most recent data. However depending on how slowly it is moving and how close it comes to our region, there is a possibility we could receive a substantial amount of rainfall," the Sheriff's Office said.

Contact Jeff Burlew at jburlew@tallahassee.com or follow @JeffBurlew on Twitter.

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