Imagine for a moment that Vladimir Putin’s visions of glory were to come true. Suppose he was free to keep all the areas of Ukraine now controlled by Russian forces. What if no one was willing to lift a finger as he annexed this conquered territory and its fearful people into a greater Russia.
Would this bring peace? Would the world be safer? Would you be safer?
In our hearts we know the answer. Such a travesty would be the greatest victory for aggression in Europe since the Second World War. We know Putin would not stop at dismembering Ukraine. Only last week, he compared himself to Peter the Great and arrogated to Russia an eternal right to “take back” any territory ever inhabited by “Slavs”, a doctrine that would permit the conquest of vast expanses of Europe, including Nato allies.
Meanwhile, across the world, every dictator would feel emboldened to pursue their own ambitions by force — and no nation anywhere would be safe. Is that really what anyone in any country would want?
Nearly four months after Putin invaded Ukraine and started the biggest war in Europe since 1945, the UK and our allies are united in our iron resolve never to countenance any of the above.
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What should be our approach now Putin’s war is entering a new phase? I start with the most important fact of this tragedy: Ukrainian heroism and sacrifice saved Kyiv from Russia’s armoured assault and preserved the state with President Zelensky at the helm.
Putin may not realise it but his grand imperial design for the total reconquest of Ukraine has been derailed.
Don’t fall for the notion that heavier Russian firepower must translate into steady Russian gains. Don’t be fooled by Russia’s agonisingly slow advance in the Donbas region or the tactical back-and-forth in the Severodonetsk salient.
Seizing all of the Donbas was Putin’s objective as long ago as 2014, when he ignited a separatist rebellion and launched his first invasion. Now, eight years and thousands of lives later, he is still short of this goal.
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Alas Putin’s failures do not mean he will have the wisdom to retreat. In his isolation, he may still think total conquest is possible. I am afraid that we need to steel ourselves for a long war, as Putin resorts to a campaign of attrition, trying to grind down Ukraine by sheer brutality. The UK and our friends must respond by ensuring that Ukraine has the strategic endurance to survive and eventually prevail.
Time is the vital factor. Everything will depend on whether Ukraine can strengthen its ability to defend its soil faster than Russia can renew its capacity to attack. Our task is to enlist time on Ukraine’s side.
Putin probably believes that, on the contrary, time is Russia’s ally. He thinks the remorseless logic of overwhelming firepower will eventually prevail, while the fickle West will prove incapable of holding firm to any difficult course.
It may be no bad thing if Putin nurses these comforts because he will then fail to address the compelling reasons for believing that he is wrong and the clock is ticking inexorably against Russia.
Day after day, Ukraine’s fields and cities are littered with the charred hulks of ever more Russian tanks and armour. It will take years, perhaps decades, to replace this hardware. And hour by hour Russian forces are expending equipment and ammunition faster than their factories can produce them.
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Meanwhile, they are openly trying to recruit mercenaries in the Middle East and Africa, betraying a desperation to fill the gaps torn in an army that has lost about a quarter of its fighting strength.
While Putin ponders his delusions, Britain and our allies must take four vital steps to recruit time to Ukraine’s cause.
First, we must ensure that Ukraine receives weapons, equipment, ammunition and training more rapidly than the invader, and build up its capacity to use our help. Before this onslaught, British instructors trained more than 22,000 Ukrainian troops, an achievement that happened over seven years. Now we need to move faster, training that sort of number in months. So the UK plans to work with our friends to prepare Ukrainian forces to defend their country, with the potential to train up to 10,000 soldiers every 120 days.
Second, we must help preserve the viability of the Ukrainian state. President Zelensky’s government has to pay wages, run schools, deliver aid and begin reconstruction wherever possible. That will require constant funding and technical help, which we should plan to sustain for years to come. The EU has a vital role and I applaud the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and Romania for visiting Kyiv on Thursday.
Third, Russia has imposed a stranglehold on Ukraine’s economy by blockading its principal export routes across the Black Sea. We need a long-term effort to develop the alternative overland routes that already exist and ensure that Ukraine’s economy continues to function.
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Most gravely of all, the Russian blockade of Odesa and other Ukrainian ports is preventing the export of desperately needed food for the poorest people. As I write, some 25 million tonnes of corn and wheat — the entire annual consumption of all the least developed countries — is piled up in silos across Ukraine, held hostage by Russia.
This leads to the fourth point: we need to get that food out. The UK supports the efforts of the UN to negotiate a safe corridor for exports by sea.Ukraine’s ports are vital to global food supplies and we will keep supplying the weapons needed to protect them.
None of these steps will yield immediate results, though the need to restore food exports could scarcely be more pressing. All will require a determined effort by the UK and our allies, lasting for months and years.
And all serve one objective. We must strengthen the hand of our Ukrainian friends to finish this war on the terms that President Zelensky has laid out. That should be the definition of success. The Ukrainian people have been clear they will not be forced into accepting less than that.
In so doing, we and our allies will be protecting our own security as much as Ukraine’s and safeguarding the world from the lethal dreams of Putin and those who might seek to copy them.
