5 simple tips and predictions will set up your NCAA tournament bracket for March Madness

March seems to get more maddening every year for those trying to put together a winning men's NCAA Tournament bracket.

Just last year for the first time in tournament history, both a 15- and 16-seeded team knocked off their No. 2- and No. 1-seeded opponents. Then, Princeton went on to win again and become the fourth 15th seed to make the Sweet 16.

So is the tournament just too unpredictable now? Is it time to just coin-flip your way through the brackets? You can probably do a little better than that.

How to prepare your 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket

First, regardless of how much research you do, your odds of picking all 63 games – not including the four play-in games – correctly are impossibly large.

So your bracket doesn't need to be perfect. Just a little lucky. And perhaps follow a few trends based on the 38 years of history since the tournament grew to 64 teams. These tips will get you started, but you'll still need to make a few guesses – educated or not – along the way.

How to watch the NCAA Tournament:Searchable TV schedules for the men's and women's games

1. Pick the 1st and 2nd seeds in the first round of the bracket

Below is a slightly different way to look at the traditional NCAA Tournament bracket. The first round comes down to four sets of these eight pairings. These 2,432 squares below represent all the teams – not counting they play-in teams – that have competed in March Madness since 1985.

Unable to view our graphics? Click here to see them.

Thanks to the efforts of the NCAA selection committee, if you just pick the highest-seeded team throughout the tournament, your odds improve significantly – especially through the first few rounds. That makes the No. 1 and 2 seeds a good bet in almost every tournament. More on that in tip No. 2.

The NCAA has hosted its own online bracket contest during the past nine tournaments. They've found that players get two-thirds of their picks right when they based their picks on "likely outcomes." That method improves your odds of a perfect bracket to 1 in 120.2 billion. 

That's 70 million times better than coin flipping, but likely outcomes probably won't not be enough to win among your friends and co-workers.

2. Odds are stacked against 15- and 16-seeded teams winning this year

Part 2 of tip No. 1: The odds are stacked against the eight lowest-seeded teams this year because of their wins in the 2023 tournament.

Yes, 15 and 16 seeds win first-round games: 13 times to be exact, as you can see in the chart, above. How does that average out? That's about one in three tournaments. With a 15 and 16 winning last year, we're either seeing the start of a new trend or eight easy first-round picks in your bracket this year.

If you do want to take a flier (which you need to to win), maybe try a few seeds up. On average a 13 seed knocks off a 4 seed about once per tournament.

How often lower seeds win in the NCAA tournament

On average, you can count on at least one upset by the 10, 11 and 12 seeds in each tournament. In 2023, no 12 seed won, but No. 13 Furman did.

Men’s March Madness bracket recap:Full NCAA bracket, schedule and predictions for each region

3. How many upsets should you pick in you NCAA Tournament bracket?

The guessing game begins here in Step 3 and where you'll differentiate your bracket from everyone one else's.

On average between 1985 and 2023, there've been just over eight upsets per tournament, or just about 13% of the 63 games, according to the NCAA. That said, some years are bound to break brackets. Both 2021 and 2022 had 14 total upsets.

These upset numbers don't include the 8 vs. 9 games. That's probably the best time to consider flipping a coin to make your picks. The 9 seeds currently have a four-game edge on the 8s, so that might argue for a majority of 8-seed winners this year.

Upset rates for the first four rounds of the NCAA Tournament

4. Picking the Final Four gets more challenging

Since 2011, at least one No. 7 seed or lower has made in the Final Four – except for 2019. Even that tournament would have required some creative guessing. The eventual champion Virginia was a No. 1 seed, but the other three included No. 2 Michigan State, No. 3 Texas Tech and No. 5 Auburn. 

Also, just picking all the No. 1 seeds to make the Final Four is less likely now than a No. 16 seed toppling a No. 1 seed, which has now happen twice. All four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four only once: 2008.

5. A No. 1 seed is still the best choice for the tournament champion

Maybe you shouldn't have four No. 1s in your Final Four, but they've piled up two dozen championships in nearly four decades, including eight of the past 11 tournaments. Also, since 2005, a No. 1 seed has won at least every other year.

Perhaps Connecticut will bring home its second consecutive championship. This season would be as a No. 1 seed, not a No. 4 like last year. Or maybe Purdue? They were beaten by a 16-seed in 2023. After Virginia's historic loss to a 16-seed in 2018, they followed up with a national championship in 2019.

Schools that have won the NCAA men's tournament

Printable March Madness bracket and locations

What's the longest a bracket has ever stayed perfect?

According to the NCAA, an Ohio man correctly predicted the entire 2019 men's NCAA tournament into the Sweet 16, which set the record for the longest verified March Madness bracket win streak at 49 games. (The NCAA began tracking brackets from major online platforms, including their Men and Women's Bracket Challenge Game, ESPN, CBS and Yahoo, since 2016.) Read more about perfect March Madness brackets here.