'Awful choices': Voters don't want a Trump-Biden rematch in 2024. Will criminal cases help third party?

WASHINGTON − Voters were already unhappy about the likely prospect of a 2024 rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden – and that was before a series of historic criminal charges rolled in.

First came the unprecedented indictment of Trump by a New York district attorney in a hush money case in April. Then came Trump's federal indictment in the classified documents case this month. And Tuesday, Hunter Biden, the president’s son, agreed to plead guilty to two misdemeanor counts of tax evasion.

This barrage of legal woes for both camps has made its mark in modern presidential history and promises to reverberate on the campaign trail – though it’s not clear how. Plus, Trump’s situation is very different from Joe Biden’s. But as Hunter Biden’s plea deal and Trump’s legal troubles continue to make headlines, that could reinforce voters’ desire for other options.

“You’ve had Fox News talking about Hunter Biden, Hunter Biden, Hunter Biden...and you've had, MSNBC, CNN talking Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

The takeaway for the remote, removed person that may occasionally tune in to any news outlet, he said, "is that they’re both awful. These are awful choices.”

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“That's a big problem," Paleologos added.

Republicans and Democrats both campaign on criminal cases

It's not your average election mudslinging. How voters react is the question.

Some Republicans – including Trump – accused the Justice Department of going easy on Hunter Biden. Trump said he was getting “a mere `traffic ticket.’”

“Our system is BROKEN!" Trump said in a Truth Social post.

Rep. James Comer, the Kentucky Republican who has been leading a House investigation into Hunter Biden and other members of the Biden family that he vowed to continue, said he’s “getting away with a slap on the wrist.”

Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said Republicans will continue to attack Hunter Biden as part of their defense of Trump, even though there are significant differences in the seriousness of their legal issues.

That could contribute to any cynicism voters have about the president and his son in the short term. But Kondick doesn’t anticipate much of a long-term impact.

“Perceptions of Biden and Trump continue to be bad. There are a lot of people who don’t want a rematch, would prefer others,” he said.

But does that actually translate into a real primary weakness for either of these candidates, Kondik asked. "That remains to be seen.”

In a Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll taken before Trump pleaded not guilty to 37 federal charges related to his handling of classified documents but after he was indicted in New York on the hush money case, 34% of Republican and independent voters said Trump’s legal situation made them less likely to support him. Only 11% said it makes them more likely to rally around him.

But surveys conducted since Trump’s June 8 indictment on federal charges have been mixed. A CNN poll found Trump’s favorability rating among GOP-aligned voters dipped from 77% in May to 67%.

In a PBS News Hour/NPR/Marist poll, Trump’s favorability rating among Republicans and Republican-leaning voters had increased since February.

Beyond the implications for the 2024 election, a Monmouth University survey released Tuesday showed stresses on the governing system.

Only 4 in 10 of adults surveyed in late May felt the nation’s system of government is “basically sound.” Republicans were more likely than independents and Democrats to say the system needs significant change.

Since Trump’s indictment, many Republicans have attacked the Justice Department, accusing Democrats of “weaponizing” the agency to go after Trump. Several of Trump’s rivals for the GOP nomination have promised to get rid of top Justice Department officials if elected president.

“This DOJ continues to hunt Republicans while it protects Democrats,” South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott said on “Fox News Sunday.”

As Republicans continued that attack line Tuesday after Hunter Biden’s plea agreement was announced, Democrats pushed back.

New York Rep. Dan Goldman, who previously served as a Democratic lawyer in the first impeachment of Trump, countered that Hunter Biden took responsibility for “crimes and conduct” that haven’t typically resulted in federal charges.

“This was a thorough, professional, and exhaustive investigation into Hunter Biden’s finances which started under the Trump Administration and was investigated by a Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney, David Weiss, for five years,” Goldman said in a statement. “I have every confidence that the charges levied against Hunter Biden reflect Mr. Weiss’s fidelity to the rule of law – and his oath to proceed without fear or favor – and hold Hunter Biden accountable for every charge Mr. Weiss could prove.”

Do criminal charges increase the likability of a third-party candidate?

In the June Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll, 23% of registered voters said they would vote for an unnamed third-party candidate against Biden and Trump. By comparison, 9% of voters polled in the summer of 2019 said they would vote for a third-party candidate. (Only 2% did in 2020.)

The 2023 survey was taken June 5-9, before both Trump’s federal criminal indictment and Hunter Biden’s plea agreement.

Paleologos doesn’t think the plea agreement will cause a significant drop in the president’s poll numbers.

“But I think longer term, these are problems that both parties have to figure out because they’re only clearing a wider and wider lane for a well-funded third-party candidate to shake things up,” he said.

Among independents surveyed earlier this month, the share favoring a third-party candidate was nearly as high as the combined support for Biden and Trump. 

Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said Hunter Biden’s plea agreement reinforces the sentiment among Democrats who already wanted Biden to step aside for whatever reason.

But because so many people already wish there were other options, Murray said, it’s hard to imagine that the latest developments will push more people to reject the current front-runners.

“We won’t know for sure," Murray added, "until we poll again."

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