Streaming didn’t just revolutionize the way we watch television: it completely upended how the people who make our favorite programming get paid. Writers, in particular, have felt the squeeze brought about by streaming’s shorter seasons, longer production times, and shrinking residual checks. “Writers are finding their work devalued in every part of the business,” the unions that represent some 11,000 Hollywood scribes wrote in a March report, which revealed that the weekly median pay for a TV writer-producer has declined 4% over the last decade. 

Now, the Writers Guild of America—still basking in the glow of a 2021 victory against the high-powered Hollywood talent agencies—is gearing up for a fight. The WGA’s three-year contract with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers—the trade association that represents Hollywood studios, including Disney, Netflix, and Warner Bros. Discovery—is set to expire on May 1. If the two sides can’t agree on new terms, Hollywood could see its first writers’ strike in 15 years.

“What we’re asking isn’t absurd,” says Brittani Nichols, a writer and producer for ABC sitcom Abbott Elementary. “It’s just to be treated fairly and to be able to make a career out of being a television writer, because that is being stripped away from us right now.” 

Talks began in late March. In what was perhaps the first indication that they weren’t going well, the WGA sent a letter to its members last Monday calling for a strike authorization vote. “The studios need to respond to the crisis writers face,” the Los Angeles–based WGA West said in a statement released via Twitter. “WGA members must demonstrate our willingness to fight for the contract writers need and deserve by supporting a strike authorization vote.” 

Writers can’t strike until their existing contract expires, but calling for a vote—which will begin Tuesday—is the equivalent of assembling the troops. If writers come down decisively in favor of a strike, it could give the WGA additional leverage in its ongoing negotiations with the studios. 

Among those who immediately closed ranks was Everything Everywhere All at Once codirector Daniel Kwan. “It’s about writers getting their fair share,” the newly minted multiple Oscar winner tweeted as he called for his colleagues to vote yes for strike authorization. “It’s about maintaining a healthy middle/working class of writers in our industry. It’s about showing our collective strength as new tech threatens to take away our leverage.” 

There’s still time for the writers and studios to work out their differences—just like they did in 2017—but if talks stall, there’s a good chance that writers will put down their pens and head to the picket line. Below, Vanity Fair breaks down what you need to know about the potential work stoppage. 

More money. But, of course, it’s more nuanced than that. TV writers (and to some extent movie screenwriters too) feel like they’ve been sidelined while streamers and studios have enjoyed the spoils of the streaming wars. Last year, Hollywood released nearly 600 original scripted shows—the most ever, or at least the most since John Landgraf, the FX chairman and ”Peak TV” soothsayer, began keeping track. But writers, who are typically paid per episode, have seen their earnings decimated by shorter season orders (typically just 6–12, episodes compared to the 22–24 episode orders of yore). Longer production times—consider the 20-month gap between the second and third seasons of Stranger Things—also mean they have to stretch their pay further. Outside of a handful of bold-named writer-producers—like Shonda Rhimes, Greg Berlanti, and Ryan Murphy—stories abound about writers who are barely scraping by. 

In early March, WGA members approved a list of general objectives—called a Pattern of Demands—that includes standard negotiating points like higher minimum compensation and increased contributions to healthcare and retirement funds. They are also looking to address some streaming-specific frustrations, including standardizing pay for a screenwriter regardless of whether a film is released theatrically or on a streaming service. 

One particularly onerous streaming-era invention that appears in the Pattern of Demands is the “mini-room”—a writers’ room with only a handful of scribes that’s convened for a few weeks to develop story ideas before production officially begins. Mini-rooms can be cheaper for the studio but, as Vanity Fair noted when they first began cropping up some five-plus years ago, have turned a formerly lucrative career path into essentially a gig-economy job. 

The WGA is a formidable opponent with real momentum on its side. In 2019, it took on Hollywood’s powerful talent agencies and won. Writers were also prepared to strike in 2017 until they landed an eleventh hour deal that won them a 15% increase in pay-TV residuals and job protection for new parents. 

Hollywood hasn’t faced the reality of a writers’ strike since 2007, when around 12,000 scribes headed to the picket lines in a work stoppage that lasted 100 days. At issue was how writers were being compensated when someone went to download an episode of, say, CSI from iTunes for $1.99. 

Streaming was in its infancy then, but creatives were concerned that the studios would cut them out of the profits just as they had tried to do when home video sales first took off. “We absolutely didn’t get everything we wanted, but getting the jurisdiction in new media completely changed the way writers, actors, directors and the entire industry are employed,” Patric Verrone, president of WGA West during the 2007 strike, told The Hollywood Reporter several years ago. “If we hadn’t done that, Netflix wouldn’t be what it is today, which is the company that employs something like a third of our members now.”

Today’s negotiations feel just as existential. Streaming is now the dominant means of distributing entertainment to consumers, and as writers face the very real possibility that peak TV is coming to an end, they’re looking for ways to make these jobs sustainable. But the WGA is also bargaining without its controversial, yet effective lead negotiator for the first time since 2006. David Young, who served as executive director for WGA West during the 2007 strike and the more recent fight with the agencies, announced in February that he was taking a medical leave. Young protégé Ellen Stutzman has taken over as chief negotiator for the current round of talks with the AMPTP. 

Vanity Fair has talked to dozens of TV-industry workers over the last few weeks, and everyone has a different opinion. Though many writers say they don’t want to strike, they’re prepared to. The rest of Hollywood, meanwhile, is acting as though a strike is likely. A source says a flurry of mini-rooms began to meet toward the end of last year as studios look to stockpile scripts. Meanwhile, dealmakers are rushing to make sure contracts are signed. 

“We’re all planning as if the strike is going to occur,” says Elsa Ramo, who works with independent film and TV producers, financiers, and creatives as managing partner of Hollywood law firm Ramo Law. “Our perspective is, how do we continue to get things made if and when the strike happens?”

Complicating matters is the precarious position the studios and streamers find themselves in as they negotiate with the writers. Nearly every major entertainment conglomerate is currently cutting back on spending, laying off staff as they attempt to turn their expensive streaming gambits into profitable businesses. For the last few years, Wall Street turned a blind eye to the billions that companies like Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery, and NBCUniversal sunk into Netflix competitors—but now the bill has come due. That might make it harder for the writers to win allies. 

Before the writers can strike, they must vote to authorize a work stoppage. WGA has called for a strike authorization vote to be conducted from April 11 to April 17. A majority vote in favor of a strike would allow union leaders to execute one should they not have a new contract in place by the time the existing contract expires on May 1. 

If negotiations stall and a strike does take place, expect writers to put down their pens within a matter of days. In 2007, writers headed to picket lines outside the major LA studios on the Monday after their contract expired. But that doesn’t mean all productions would immediately grind to a halt. Movies with completed screenplays would likely continue to film, and some shows would probably remain in production until they run out of scripts. A strike would continue until both parties agree on a new contract. The longest WGA strike on record lasted 153 days in 1988. 

The situation could worsen if the Directors Guild of America, which is set to begin negotiations with studios in May, follows the WGA with its own strike when its contract expires at the end of June. 

Any strike would cripple Hollywood for a time, though how acute the pain would be depends on how long the work stoppage lasts. Many movies and streaming TV shows are in production well before they make their way to screens big and small, meaning viewers likely wouldn’t notice a clog in Hollywood’s content pipeline. But late night shows might have to go dark for a time, and broadcast shows might have to delay their return to airwaves. One casualty of the 2007 writers strike was the 65th Golden Globes, which hosted a press conference instead of its usual glitzy broadcast. 

Some writers are worried that studios could use the strike as an opportunity to terminate the pricey overall deals they signed with creatives at the height of the streaming wars. Those deals—in which a studio essentially pays a writer or producer a salary to make programming it can sell to a network or streamer—can be restrictive, but also guarantee a steady income. The studios set a precedent in 2007 when they used the strike as cover to end more than three dozen overall deals. Now these deals are even more prevalent, though not all of them are as fruitful as the studios would like. 

Hollywood’s more enterprising workers might also find opportunity. Streamers with robust international operations will also be able to lean on programming from overseas. Out-of-work writers might find more time to work on spec scripts and novels—and perhaps the faltering podcast industry will get a much-needed boost from a surge in audio dramas.

In truth, the ripple effects of a strike might not be felt for years. The last one, after all, led to an unscripted television boom, including a celebrity-centric revival of flagging Donald Trump–hosted reality competition The Apprentice. We all know how that ended.