RICHLAND, Pennsylvania — Jackie Kulback has a very detailed list of criteria that the county party she chairs, the Cambria County Republican Committee, requires to endorse candidates in next month’s U.S. Senate primary contest.
“There are some basic things,” she said, “such as, have they ever been to Cambria County and talked to the voters? Do their values line up with our values? Which is very important because we are a very pro-life county. Can they raise money? Can they do the job? And finally, can they actually get elected in a general election?”
Kulback, who has worked tirelessly over the past seven years to register new voters and make Republicans a local majority in this working-class western Pennsylvania county, never put much stock in the endorsement of former President Donald Trump as a deciding factor.
Kulback says that is not a rap on the former president, who remains deeply beloved in this county. Many “Trump” signs are still hanging up 18 months after he narrowly lost Pennsylvania to Joe Biden. “It is just that voters here have to vote for what is best for us and our state, and we have to make the decisions based on that,” she said.
It is a sentiment that was shared by voters and party chairs across the state hours after Trump unexpectedly endorsed Mehmet Oz, the celebrity heart surgeon better known as Dr. Oz, in the race here for the Republican Senate nomination.
It was a decision that left many dedicated Trump supporters perplexed. Why did he choose someone who had not resonated with conservatives in such a key state on the Senate map? Who whispered in his ear that this was a good idea?
“President Trump was very out of sync in picking Oz,” said Dave Ball, chairman of the Washington County Republican Party. “I’d like to know who it is who lives in Pennsylvania that knows the voters well told Trump to pick Oz.”
“I think that President Trump very, very seldom does anything that’s not thought out and doesn’t have a very reasoned and logical basis, but, for whatever reason, in this particular instance, he chose to ignore all of that and endorse Oz,” he said.
Ball says he fielded calls all day from conservatives unhappy with the former president’s decision. They complained about the reasons Trump gave — noting his celebrity status, Harvard credentials, New York Times bestseller status, and praise Oz had for the former president’s health. “People have been calling me all day and asking, ‘What the hell was he thinking?’”
Trump’s comment that “women, in particular, were drawn to Dr. Oz for his advice and counsel” didn’t sit well with many female Trump supporters who were interviewed.
“Five years ago, there were 13,000 more Democrats than Republicans in this county,” he said. “And right now, there are 7,120 more Republicans than there are Democrats; that is an important number in a county that has a very suburban component in the Peters Township, North Strabane, Cecil Township area. We also have a very rural, agricultural region, as well as the Mon Valley, which is very blue-collar. In last November’s off-year election, we swept all nine row offices, the county commissioner race, and we have six state representatives, two state senators, and a congressman.”
Trump’s decision didn’t just shock many involved in the nuts and bolts of Pennsylvania Republican politics. It also shocked a lot of people on social media. Oz has been struggling in the polls since January despite the enormous amount of money he has spent on advertising. He gambled early that his celebrity status would drown out the other candidates in the race, including former Gulf War veteran and hedge fund manager David McCormick, political commentator Kathy Barnette, former ambassador Carla Sands, and real estate developer Jeff Bartos. But his expected advantage has not materialized.
Trump’s Oz endorsement also came across as odd to a lot of former Trump confidantes who have either watched this race with interest or are working on the McCormick campaign. McCormick has risen in the polls since January, going from a virtual unknown outside of Pittsburgh or Bloomburg to the front-runner in the race, thanks to a lot of retail campaigning, handshaking, and a healthy influx of cash.
But none of that really matters at the end of the day; what does matter is how the conservative voters here feel about the endorsement. They will be the ones who ultimately decide what it means in the May 17 primary.
For Heather Wilhelm, it’s a nonstarter. “In talking to other conservative voters in my circles, there hasn’t been a lot of support for Dr. Oz,” she told me. “I think maybe the people Oz attracts are moderate voters.”
The Nottingham township mother says she likes Trump and voted for him twice. But when she walks into that voting booth next month, she will not be voting for Oz. She’s not alone. Interviews with Republican primary voters across the state, even those who consider themselves staunch Trump supporters, suggest they aren’t necessarily going to follow his lead on this one.
Wilhelm said a huge issue for her is having conservative leadership representing Pennsylvania in D.C. “I am raising kids; so what is happening in the realm of education is very important to me,” she said. “But I am also concerned about energy independence and who will advocate for it, and the negative impact that government overreach has had on people’s livelihoods.”
She has not made up her mind about whom to vote for, but she states emphatically that she is not even considering Oz, no matter what Trump says.
Youngstown State political scientist Paul Sracic said a Trump endorsement may provide an important “cue” for some voters, particularly voters who don’t know a lot about the candidates running, but that it will not likely be dispositive. “The problem for Trump,” he said, “is that primary voters tend to be more interested in politics than general election voters.”
If Trump-endorsed candidates don’t end up winning, it provides even more evidence for the thesis that Trump did not create the movement that has supported him since 2016, Sracic said. “In other words, the Republican Party has not become a Trump cult, as some in the media, and even in the Republican Party, seem to think.”
Trump’s presence in the GOP, with his larger-than-life personality and some of his policies, did provide the spark necessary to make working-class voters more comfortable with Republicans. But, the reasoning goes, they were already moving in the party’s direction prior to 2016 — Trump simply became the occasion for that movement.
Sracic said now that the party itself has changed, even down to local party organizations, Trump is less crucial personally. “Most Republicans still like Trump, and if he runs in 2024, he will be a force to be reckoned with,” he said. But voters may consider other options.
Sracic said the Oz endorsement seems to him particularly problematic for a former president often hailed for his political instincts. “Trump seems to think that since his own popularity was initially driven by the fact that he was a television celebrity, Dr. Oz will enjoy the same benefit.” That may not prove true. Trump’s show, The Apprentice, presented him as the strong, decisive executive, willing to fire incompetents. It was a nearly perfect vehicle to promote a candidacy for president at a time when people were losing faith in government. Other types of celebrity exposure might not have been so advantageous, and might not be today.
Kulback, Ball, and Wilhelm have not changed their minds about Trump. They still like him. But his endorsement has not changed their minds about Oz.
“Will all of this harm Trump?” asks Sracic. “Maybe. But the former president is quite skilled at spinning results in his favor. He will simply argue that candidates would have done even worse without him, and that is probably true.”
