Question 1

What is the Black Sea Grain Initiative?

Accepted Answer

Russia blockaded Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea after its 2022 invasion, abruptly halting exports from one of the world’s top producers of wheat, corn and edible oils. The move came as the global economy was already grappling with high inflation and still recovering from the dislocation of the coronavirus pandemic. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, which was brokered by Turkey and the United Nations, was signed by Kyiv and Moscow in July 2022. It allowed for the export of grain, food items and fertilizers from three Ukrainian ports to global markets. Officials from the United Nations, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine oversaw the deal, which included inspections of ships leaving Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. The deal was in place for an initial 120 days, and has since been renewed three times. Global food prices that hit record highs soon after the invasion eased in the months following the agreement, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. The agreement has also been a financial lifeline for Kyiv, which faces soaring rebuilding costs.

Question 2

Why did Russia pull out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative?

Accepted Answer

Russian agricultural products are not subject to direct sanctions by the West, but the Kremlin says the sanctions have worked to limit its grain and fertilizer exports. Russia has demanded that the state-affiliated agricultural bank be reconnected to the global SWIFT payments system after Western sanctions banned most Russian financial institutions from accessing it. The Kremlin also wants restrictions lifted on its ability to buy agricultural machinery and spare parts from abroad, the easing of limits on access to shipping insurance and an agreement to allow the launch of an ammonia pipeline. U.N. Secretary General António Guterres has told Russian President Vladimir Putin that moves have been made to meet the Kremlin’s demands and noted that its grain exports had nearly recovered to preinvasion levels. Efforts were also being made to connect the agriculture bank to a payments network outside SWIFT, he said. “Only upon receipt of concrete results, and not promises and assurances, will Russia be ready to consider the restoration of the deal,” the Kremlin said in a statement. The announcement came shortly after a deadly Ukrainian attack on a key bridge connecting the annexed Crimean peninsula with the Russian region of Krasnodar. Russia briefly paused its participation in the deal in October following an attack on its ships, though it was resumed a few days later.

Question 3

Who has bought the most grain from Ukraine?

Accepted Answer

The grain deal allowed for the export of nearly 33 million tons of commodities to dozens of countries, according to U.N. data. Middle- and upper-income countries such as China, Spain, Turkey, Italy and the Netherlands top the list of countries buying exports under the initiative. Lower-income economies such as Egypt, Bangladesh and India have also benefited. Corn was the most exported commodity, followed by wheat. The initiative has also helped the World Food Program send more than 700,000 tons of wheat to vulnerable countries including Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Somalia and Yemen.

Question 4

Will food prices increase?

Accepted Answer

Futures of grain products initially rose on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, before falling slightly. “Prices went up today,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. “Corn, soybean and wheat all shot up today as a result of this decision. We’re seeing the impact right now.” Russia is using food as a weapon in the war against Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters. “The result of Russia’s action today, weaponizing food, using it as a tool, as a weapon in its war against Ukraine, will be to make food harder to come by in places that desperately need it, and to make prices rise.” The suspension of the initiative may produce “upward pressure” on food prices given “Ukraine’s critical role in providing corn and wheat to world markets,” a spokesperson for WFP said in an emailed statement. “The suspension will also impact agriculture inside Ukraine, which is critical for its economy and depends on consistent access to markets,” they added. The WFP has previously warned that the world is facing an “unprecedented” crisis, with more than 345 million people facing food insecurity in 2023.

Question 5

What has the reaction to Russia’s decision been?

Accepted Answer

Aid groups and the West called on Russia to reverse the move. The decision will “strike a blow to people in need everywhere,” said U.N. chief Guterres, adding that the price would be paid by the world’s most vulnerable. Millions of people in East Africa will be affected by Russia’s withdrawal from the deal, the International Rescue Committee said in a statement. “Approximately 80% of East Africa’s grain is imported from Russia and Ukraine. With over 50 million people across East Africa facing hunger at crisis levels and food prices up by nearly 40% this year, any disruption to the global food supplies at a time of heightened need could have devastating consequences,” chief executive David Miliband said. “While Russia plays political games, real people will suffer: the child in the Horn of Africa who is severely malnourished, the mother who will stop producing breast milk for her baby,” said the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has maintained some ties with Russia, told reporters that Putin “wants this humanitarian bridge to continue” and that senior Turkish officials would work to extend the deal. Ties between the two countries have come under strain following Ankara’s recent pro-Western moves.

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