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Russian investigators confirmed Sunday that Wagner mercenary leader <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/obituaries/2023/08/26/yevgeniy-prigozhin-putin-wagner-dies/" target=_blank>Yevgeniy Prigozhin</a> and top leaders of the group were killed when his plane crashed in the Tver region of Russia, announcing the results of DNA testing on the bodies of victims.

Russia’s Investigative Committee said it was continuing its investigation into the causes of the crash, although Western analysts believe the true cause may never be known because of Russia’s opaque and often politicized investigations system.

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All 10 people onboard, including Wagner military commander Dmitry Utkin, were killed in the crash Wednesday. The U.S. intelligence community is examining the possibility that an explosion brought down the plane, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/24/fear-putin-strongman-prighozin-death/" target=_blank>with many in Russia’s elite convinced</a> Prigozhin’s death was an assassination ordered by the Kremlin.

What we know about the crashed Russian plane that listed Prigozhin as passenger

In June, Prigozhin led a short-lived rebellion by Wagner in an effort to topple his rivals, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the chief of the Russian general staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov. He had since been struggling to keep his mercenary empire afloat, amid <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/25/wagner-group-successors-mercenary-companies/" target=_blank>reports</a> that figures associated with the Defense Ministry were quietly jostling to take over Wagner’s lucrative operations in Africa and the Middle East.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Friday dismissed rampant speculation of Kremlin involvement in the crash as punishment of Prigozhin for the rebellion as “all lies.”

Wagner chief Prigozhin's lingering popularity a challenge for Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke of Prigozhin in the past tense Thursday, calling him a “talented” man who “achieved the necessary results,” but “made mistakes.” Other prominent Russian politicians and writers followed his lead, praising Prigozhin as a tough fighter and extolling Wagner, which is seen as Russia’s most ruthless and successful assault force in the Ukraine war.

The group’s future is in doubt after the demise of Prigozhin and its top leaders, with its operations likely to be taken over by Kremlin-friendly figures, who will probably be given far less latitude than Prigozhin was allowed in aggressively expanding Wagner’s commercial, geopolitical and military power.

In the days leading up to Wednesday’s mysterious plane crash, at least two private military companies — Konvoi and Redut, both controlled by or linked to the Defense Ministry and Putin loyalists — had begun hiring people for operations in Africa, a sign that the Kremlin was planning to absorb Prigozhin’s security contracts in the region.

These groups are considered to be less effective and battle-hardened than Wagner, and Prigozhin’s mercenaries are opposed to mixing with them, but signing up with ministry-approved paramilitary forces probably will be the only way for them to remain employed, experts said.

High-ranking military officials have also traveled to key countries where Wagner has a significant presence, to assure local governments that Wagner contingents will remain in place under direct Kremlin control.

Who was on the crashed Russian plane’s passenger list?

Wagner achieved Russia’s only substantial military gain this year, helping capture the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut in May, albeit at a massive cost in Russian casualties — many of them convicts recruited from prisons and sent to the front line. The minority who survived were pardoned by Putin and, in turn, strongly supported Prigozhin for enabling them to redeem themselves as Russian “heroes” by fighting in Ukraine.

State Duma lawmaker Vitaly Milonov called for Prigozhin’s funeral and burial to be held in war-torn Bakhmut, a tactic that would prevent the thousands of Wagner members and their families from paying tribute, and would ensure his grave does not turn into a popular shrine for hard-line pro-war nationalists. But such a move would also make it dangerous for Prigozhin’s own family to attend the funeral and visit the grave.

Before Prigozhin plane crash, Russia was preparing for life after Wagner

Russian analysts have predicted that the funerals of Prigozhin and Utkin could see an outpouring of support and potentially anger, in what could prove an awkward moment for Putin, who called the Wagner leader a “traitor” during the rebellion — before offering Prigozhin and his fighters a deal in return for calling off the mutiny.

Residents of St. Petersburg, Prigozhin’s hometown, continued to bring flowers and flags carrying mercenaries’ insignia to a makeshift memorial near Wagner Center, a business complex that served as headquarters for many of the mogul’s endeavors before the mutiny.

“We all miss, love and mourn you, true patriots and defenders of Russia,” read a note that appeared to have been written by a child, published by local outlet Rotonda. “Those who did it [to you] will die in pain.”

According to Rotonda, the memorial doubled in size since the news of Prigozhin’s death emerged, with a steady stream of red carnations brought by Wagner’s supporters and former fighters dismissed from Ukraine.

After the June rebellion, thousands of Wagner fighters moved to Belarus while Prigozhin prepared to expand his operations in Africa. Some signed contracts with the Defense Ministry, and others went home. Most of the convicts were let go after reaching their required six months of service on the battlefield.

After the deal, Peskov said that Prigozhin’s security had been guaranteed by Putin’s word, and the Wagner boss continued to travel freely in Russia and to Africa, disposing of some assets and preparing to expand his African operations. Some analysts predicted that his death was only a matter of time, given his many powerful enemies.

Russia’s elite, meanwhile, has been <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/24/fear-putin-strongman-prighozin-death/" target=_blank>cowed</a> by what many of them believe was a hit ordered directly or indirectly by the Kremlin, and analysts agreed that Prigozhin’s death will stamp out any remaining impulse among Russia’s elite to speak out against the war or challenge Putin.

“The way in which Prigozhin was apparently killed suggests the Kremlin wanted to show how it deals with traitors,” <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90436" target=_blank>said</a> Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “Whatever actually happened, the Russian elite will see the air crash as retribution for Wagner’s armed uprising. Some will be scared, but others will be pleased: Among conservatives it will be seen as justice.”

Natalia Abbakumova in Riga, Latvia contributed to this report.

2016: Winner of the Overseas Press Club Madeline Dane Ross Award for international reporting on the human condition

2016: Reporting fellow, International Women’s Media Foundation  

2016: Anchored the Los Angeles Times story, "Diary of Terror," that was awarded an Associated Press Media Editors award in the Sally Jacobsen International Perspective category, as well as a citation for storytelling from the APME

2009: Winner of the Daniel Pearl Award for courage and integrity in reporting

2009: Awarded the Batten Medal by the American Society of Newspaper Editors, recognizing “compassion, courage, humanity and a deep concern for the underdog"

2008: Citation by the Overseas Press Club in relation to the Joe and Laurie Dine award for international reporting dealing with human rights

2008: Winner of the Robert F. Kennedy award for international reporting on human rights, social justice or the power of individual action

2007: Winner of the Society of Professional Journalists' Sigma Delta Chi award for international reporting.

Presbyterian Ladies' College, Burwood, Australia

Robyn Dixon is a foreign correspondent on her third stint in Russia, after almost a decade reporting there beginning in the early 1990s. In November 2019 she joined The Washington Post as Moscow bureau chief. 

Robyn Dixon

Lomonosov Moscow State University

Mary Ilyushina, a reporter on the Foreign Desk of The Washington Post, covers Russia and the region. She began her career in independent Russian media before joining CNN’s Moscow bureau as a field producer in 2017. She has been with The Post since 2021. She speaks Russian, English, Ukrainian and Arabic.

Mary Ilyushina

Russia says Wagner chief Prigozhin died in plane crash after DNA tests

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