A former police chief, Rep. Val Demings, is Florida Democrats’ nominee to take on GOP Sen. Marco Rubio.
In upstate New York, an Iraq War veteran, Democrat Pat Ryan, passed his Republican opponent, Marc Molinaro, in a House special election Ryan framed almost entirely around abortion.
Ryan did better in the district against Molinaro than President Joe Biden did versus former President Donald Trump in 2020.
Ryan told CNN’s Jake Tapper on Wednesday that his decision to focus on abortion came from watching the effect of the Supreme Court’s decision on the ground in his district.
“I think you win in any endeavor when you actually listen to people on the ground,” he said.
While the Kansas election put abortion directly on the ballot, it was simply a campaign focus in the special election in New York. Now, with a win in that hotly contested seat where both parties spent money, Democrats see a path in places that seemed to be slipping out of their reach earlier this year.
Related: Headlines like these won’t help Republicans among the majority of Americans who support some form of abortion rights:
Why can a New York special election suggest anything about what’s coming in November?
CNN political director David Chalian, who always cautions about not reading too much into any one race, told me in an email that both Ryan and Molinaro were echoing the national messages from their parties — abortion rights for Democrats vs. inflation, the economy and crime for Republicans.
“The fact that Ryan won and did so by overperforming Biden’s margin of victory from 2020 suggests the anticipated red wave of 2022 may have crashed ashore early,” Chalian said.
He also pointed out that Republicans don’t need a wave to take control of either the House or the Senate. Just a few GOP pickups will do (a handful in the House and one in the Senate).
How seriously is history stacked against Democrats?
The historical precedent would be for Democrats to lose seats.
A clear shift after Roe was overturned
CNN’s Harry Enten points out that in three special elections before the Dobbs ruling in late June, Democratic candidates were faring 6 percentage points worse than Biden’s 2020 baseline.
In four special elections after the Dobbs decision, Democrats outperformed Biden’s 2020 margin in the districts.
Doing better doesn’t mean winning
The Republicans won three of the four of those races where Democrats outperformed Biden since the Dobbs decision.
When fame doesn’t translate to politics
Enten has also written about the popularity problems a number of key Republican Senate candidates face in the most hotly contested races heading into the fall.
GOP Senate control is a ’50/50 proposition’
The counterexample is in Colorado, where the moderate Republican novice and businessman Joe O’Dea won the GOP primary. Now Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet will need to fight with O’Dea, who has a history of supporting abortion rights, over the middle ground in a state that has trended toward Democrats in recent years.
Campaign cash flowed after Dobbs decision
“The day the actual ruling was released — June 24 — and the following day marked the top two strongest fundraising days of the election cycle for the DSCC, officials with the Democrats’ Senate campaign arm have said,” according to Schouten and Wright.
Abortion rights are driving more Democrats
In August, more than half — 56% — said it was “very important.” The growth was almost all among Democrats.
The economy is still the issue most Americans — 77% — point to as “very important.”
But Jennifer Agiesta, CNN’s director of polling and election analytics, explained why it’s important to be cautious about reading too much into any single result or data point.
“These things are positive signs for Democrats right now, but it isn’t completely clear that it’s going to meaningfully change the outcome in November,” she said.
Special election wild card
Each of the post-Dobbs special elections also shared one key characteristic: college kids.
“Democrats’ successes in these specials have been fueled by high engagement in college-heavy enclaves like Lincoln, NE; Rochester, MN; Ulster County, NY; and Ithaca, NY — pockets not all that representative of the larger fall electorate,” Cook’s analysts wrote.