Chase Elliott did more than win a race on Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway. He removed all doubt that he is the favorite to win his second NASCAR Cup Series championship in three seasons.
Ross Chastain, Joey Logano, William Byron, and Denny Hamlin may only be one behind in the win column, but Elliott has established momentum heading into the final seven races of the regular season, a stretch that plays into his strengths.
Road courses are typically Chase Elliott’s strength
The first thing to note about Chase Elliott building a somewhat comfortable lead in points more than two-thirds of the way through the regular season is that he’s done it without cashing in on his strength. Seven of his 13 career NASCAR Cup Series wins entering the season came on road courses, but all three victories in 2022 have been on ovals.
In three starts on road courses this year, Elliott has placed 26th at Fontana, eighth at Sonoma, and second at Road America. Oddly enough, the three drivers who rode onto Victory Lane were all first-time Cup Series winners. While they were making headlines, Elliott was picking up some race points and seven stage points, but no stage victories that count toward playoff standings.
The odds strongly suggest that will change on the upcoming road courses at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and Watkins Glen. Winning even one of the two would constitute a boost in season points and playoff points.
Chase Elliott is far ahead of where he was at this point in 2020
Chase Elliott went into the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs as the No. 7 finisher in regular-season points. Kevin Harvick (seven) and Denny Hamlin (six) combined for 13 regular-season wins and started the playoffs with 42 and 27 points, respectively. By comparison, Elliott won two races and carried just 16 points into the playoffs. He didn’t take over the points lead until the Martinsville race, the final contest before the Championship 4.
Through 19 races that season, Elliott was fifth in points and trailed leader Hamlin in playoff points, 28-10. He picked up another win down the stretch but still lost a little bit of ground along the way despite six top-10 showings in the last seven races before the playoffs.
Elliott was similarly solid down the stretch last year, with another six top-10 results. If he replicates that this summer, he should easily finish the regular season with a minimum of another 20 playoff points, giving him at least 40.
Recent results, including two wins in his last three races, bode well for Elliott.
Atlanta was kind to Dawsonville’s favorite son
Being from Dawsonville, Georgia, Chase Elliott regards Atlanta Motor Speedway as his home track. This weekend, there was no place like home. Elliott won the first two stages and the race, maxing out his playoff points for the day.
The seven points raised his total to 20, finally creating some separation from the four drivers who’ve scored two wins apiece. If he does get to 40 playoff points after the Daytona summer race, Elliott could stake himself to a 20-point lead over everyone else in the field.
That would be a huge step toward making it through the first two transfers.
Here’s how the current points picture looks:
| Rank | Driver | Points | Race Wins | Stage Wins | Playoff Pts | Top 5 | Top 10 |
| 1 | Chase Elliott | 684 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | 637 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Ross Chastain | 634 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 13 |
| 4 | Kyle Larson | 579 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| 5 | Kyle Busch | 569 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Martin Truex Jr. | 566 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Joey Logano | 562 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 8 |
| 8 | Christopher Bell | 523 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Alex Bowman | 508 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | William Byron | 505 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 5 |
| 11 | Kevin Harvick | 504 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 12 | Aric Almirola | 481 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Austin Cindric | 465 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Tyler Reddick | 458 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 15 | Daniel Suarez | 451 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Kurt Busch | 449 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| Rank | Driver | Points | Race Wins | Stage Wins | Playoff Pts | Top 5 | Top 10 |
| 17 | Erik Jones | 447 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 18 | Chase Briscoe | 443 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| 19 | Denny Hamlin | 409 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 4 |
| 20 | Austin Dillon | 407 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 21 | Michael McDowell | 406 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 22 | Justin Haley | 374 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 23 | Chris Buescher | 360 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 24 | Bubba Wallace | 345 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 25 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 26 | Cole Custer | 323 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 27 | Ty Dillon | 310 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rank | Driver | Points | Race Wins | Stage Wins | Playoff Pts | Top 5 | Top 10 |
| 28 | Harrison Burton | 308 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 29 | Todd Gilliland | 284 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 | Brad Keselowski | 266 | 0 | 0 | -10 | 0 | 2 |
| 31 | Corey LaJoie | 222 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 32 | Cody Ware | 148 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 | David Ragan | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 34 | Joey Hand | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 35 | Greg Biffle | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | Jacques Villeneuve | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 37 | Boris Said | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 38 | Kyle Tilley | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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