This perfect draft strategy article examines how to approach a 2022 fantasy football draft. We’ll consider average draft position (ADP) to figure out which players we can expect to be available with later picks to optimize the talent throughout the roster.
This exercise assumes a 12-team league with PPR scoring. We won’t plan for any dramatic ADP fallers, but it’s important to remain flexible and take advantage of opponents’ mistakes when that does happen.
ROUND 1 (1-12): DRAFT A RUNNING BACK OR AN ELITE WIDE RECEIVER
The plan for the first round is simply to take the top player on the board and build around him. Jonathan Taylor is the consensus top player regardless of league format and should be taken if he’s available. He was in a league of his own at running back last season, and if anything, the Indianapolis Colts‘ offense has improved, which could lead to more red zone appearances.
Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson stand out among wide receivers. Kupp finished with the best fantasy season ever by a wide receiver this past season, beating out Randy Moss and Jerry Rice, while Jefferson has the most receiving yards and receptions by a player over their first two seasons, topping Odell Beckham Jr., Moss and Rice. There are plenty of other great running back options, but these two receivers are much safer. We can be more confident that they will stay top-five wide receivers than any of the running backs remaining top-five fantasy players at their position.
Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris, Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook should all be top-eight picks. They all have some concerns — including injury history, age, offensive lines, or being too specialized as a runner or receiver, but they’ve remained the most consistent fantasy backs in recent seasons when healthy, and there is enough reason to believe they can do it again.
It’s OK to turn back to wide receivers at the end of the first round, as it can be better to pick a wide receiver first and then a running back rather than the other way around based on current ADPs. Stefon Diggs, Ja’Marr Chase and Davante Adams are all options.
ROUND 2 (13-24): DRAFT A RUNNING BACK, WIDE RECEIVER OR MARK ANDREWS
Running back will be a popular pick in Round 2, as there are only so many who are expected to be a starter rather than a player in a committee. Having two running backs who are clear starters is the first way to create an edge over your opponents.
Leonard Fournette and D’Andre Swift led the league in targets per game last season. Both players are likely to see a decline in passes thrown their way this season but, hopefully, not by much. Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones both received over 64 targets last season in addition to ranking first and seventh in targets over the last three seasons. Kamara is potentially facing a suspension while Jones is fighting for snaps with A.J. Dillon, but there is no denying the two players’ talent.
Deebo Samuel and Keenan Allen are the wide receivers to consider in Round 2 for anyone who picked a running back in Round 1, and Samuel is the only one who deserves consideration early in the second round. He was the fourth-best wide receiver over the first half of the 2021 season in standard formats. He ranked outside of the top 10 in receptions, but his 18.0 yards per reception ranked second-best among wide receivers with at least 25 receptions.
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