2022 will not be remembered as one of the shining moments in the long and illustrious history of the Philadelphia Flyers.
In fact, it probably will go down as one of their darkest years yet.
With two days remaining in the calendar year, the Flyers hold the embarrassing title of the worst points percentage of any NHL club in 2022 — .337. How bad is that? It’s the worst single-year points percentage not occurring in a pandemic or lockout-shortened year since 2003, when the Pittsburgh Penguins posted a .327 mark.
The team with the best points percentage in 2003? The Flyers. How the mighty have fallen.
Justifiably, the questions in this end-of-year Flyers mailbag aren’t exactly positive ones. Fans want to talk trade possibilities, ruminate on the low roster quality and explore the very viability of Flyers fandom in these dark times. One can only hope that 2023 will be better than 2022 — it can’t get much worse.
Onto the questions.
Note: Submitted questions may be edited for clarity and style.
Is “engaging” with this team enabling their incompetence and bad faith toward their fan base? I believe that you have to build a team the hard way (hitting on high draft picks) and I think it’s obvious the organization doesn’t agree or just cares more about short-term profit than big-picture success. Is there a way for a fan like me to continue on as a fan without contributing to the problem? Or is there a better perspective to maintain? — Michael P.
Ah, to fan or not to fan. That is indeed the question.
One general rule I have is not to ever tell people how to be a fan. I won’t hesitate to refute what I see as incorrect perceptions regarding players and the club as a whole. But some people like hockey for the fights and hits; others love diving into the numbers; others want to obsess over the draft and prospects; still others love the X’s & O’s of the game. There are so many ways to enjoy this great sport, and hopefully, my coverage helps readers to enjoy both it and their favorite team a little bit more.
That said, the Flyers’ current situation makes it tricky for fans on multiple levels.
First, there’s a strong case to be made that rooting for the Flyers to lose this season would actually be a better usage of fans’ time, as counterintuitive as it might seem to the concept of fandom. After all, the top of the 2023 draft class is loaded, and the addition of a Connor Bedard or Adam Fantilli would go a long way towards giving the organization the potential superstar that it so lacks. Generally, it would rub me the wrong way to watch fans actively cheering against their own team. In this dismal situation, however? I don’t think fans should feel guilty at all in rooting for short-term pain to deliver long-term gain.
The tougher question, as Michael asks, is whether fans should feel guilty for continuing to follow the team at all, given the circumstances. My answer is this: I don’t believe that continuing to watch (or even attend) Flyers games is necessarily “contributing to the problem.” Yes, in theory, if every single fan boycotted the club until, say, Chuck Fletcher was fired, or Comcast Spectacor sold the team, then yes, those outcomes would almost certainly result. But no fan base could pull off that degree of unity. So blaming yourself for the desired changes not happening isn’t fair.
On the flip side, however, I don’t blame any fans who have decided that they’re simply through with the Flyers until the team is winning more consistently, even if the increasing lack of interest in the team isn’t good for my readership and job security. Sports are supposed to be fun, and the Flyers have been the opposite of fun for the better part of three seasons now. That’s not to say that there aren’t fun elements to the Flyers: Carter Hart’s development, the evaluation of young, unproven talent, the daily “what will he say next?” coaching style of John Tortorella. But fans have every right to determine that a team is no longer worth their time, and that doesn’t make them “bad fans.” It’s prioritizing their own personal happiness over the team. And in truth, that’s healthy.
What does the organization consider a successful season at this point? They aren’t a playoff team and they don’t seem like they are gunning for Bedard. So are they really gonna be happy with a purgatory season? — Stephen S.
This question drives at the heart of a question on the minds of many fans: What would allow Fletcher to keep his job? Because for Fletcher to stay general manager, the team basically has to have a “successful” season, at least in the eyes of ownership.
But what would be a successful season, in their estimation? In short, it would be a season that convinces Comcast Spectacor that a full-fledged rebuild is unnecessary.
Now, rebuild means different things to different people. When I say “rebuild,” I more mean the acceptance of a rebuild mentality, not a tear-it-all-down, trade-every-single-useful-player scorched-earth strategy. I’m talking about no more dealing draft picks for short-term solutions, no more eight-year contracts given to players in their late 20s and no more public denials or misdirections from the front office implying that it’s not going to take at least a few years to fix the situation. But the Flyers’ ownership group has never wanted to go down that path. They want to be convinced that they can essentially retool this team on-the-fly and get it back into regular playoff contention in relatively short order. That’s what a successful season looks like for Fletcher: significant evidence for ownership that a pivot to a rebuild mentality isn’t necessary.
So what would that entail?
It’s important to understand that doesn’t necessarily mean a playoff berth. Especially after it became clear that Sean Couturier would miss most (if not all) of the season with his lingering back injury, I suspect the organization as a whole came to a consensus that this Flyers club wasn’t going to make the playoffs. But the hope is that the team makes real progress regardless. They’re looking for significantly improved competitiveness, better underlying play, and enough positive developments from individual players to create the makings of a win-now core, without enough significant negative developments to make building around that core impossible in the near term.
Some of those boxes are being checked — this team is more competitive, and players like Hart and Travis Konecny have taken significant steps forward. The problem is that the team still is losing most games, and the glaring truth is that even though the roster has its fair share of intriguing young players (Noah Cates, Cam York, Owen Tippett, Wade Allison, even Morgan Frost), it’s not like that group is proving talented enough to push this team to regular wins.
To sum it up, yes, I believe the Flyers would be happy with a purgatory season. But this hasn’t even been one of those — after all, they entered Thursday with the fifth-worst record in the NHL. They’re really bad.
What do you think of Tortorella’s way to deal with the media so far? Seems like he already lost his cool too often for not even half a season. What’s your experience so far? — Lars M.
I’ve enjoyed covering Tortorella.
I understand the arguments against him. Yes, he loses his temper at times, and can be grumpy. I wasn’t on the trip to Columbus earlier in the season, but I didn’t think it was right in that particular instance that he chose not to talk to the traveling media after the game, nor provide an explanation for his absence that could have been accepted, such as a family emergency or personal illness. It played as Tortorella’s emphasis on accountability for his players not extending to himself after a tough loss, and it was a bad look. That said, it hasn’t happened again, and I’m willing to chalk it up to being an isolated incident.
On the flip side, however, I find Tortorella’s answers to questions to be uniquely insightful. I’ve been lucky enough to cover a few very honest and forthright coaches in my relatively short career as a beat writer — Mike Yeo, Scott Gordon and even Alain Vigneault stand out in particular — but Tortorella easily gives more newsworthy tidbits than any of them did, insights into Tortorella’s actual view on his players and the team as a whole.
Plus, I enjoy the challenge of covering a “difficult” head coach. Sure, Torts might not respond in a positive way to some of my questions, and even snap at me on occasion. But that makes it even more satisfying when I can pull a really good answer out of him. I think the key to covering Tortorella is not to take the bad moments personally. I get the sense he generally has a short memory, both with his players and with media members. Have a bad day with him? Shake it off, and be better the next. I’m enjoying the challenge.
Do the Flyers get a second-round pick if they don’t sign Jay O’Brien, and if so, is it 2023 or 2024? Should this be the route they take (especially if it is a 2023)? — J M
Great question. I checked with people around the league, and I can confirm that if the Flyers choose not to sign 2018 first-round Jay O’Brien by this summer, they will indeed receive a second-round compensatory pick as a result. It’s a rule in the CBA — if a team can’t (or won’t) come to terms with a first-round pick, the league gives them a comp pick in the second round of the next draft after his rights expire, at the same pick spot that he was taken originally. In other words, the Flyers would get the 19th selection in the second round if they pass on signing O’Brien.
Which year would that draft pick manifest, however? That’s a bit more complicated.
Technically, the Flyers have until Aug. 15 to sign O’Brien before they lose exclusive negotiating rights with him. Since the 2023 NHL Draft is scheduled for June 28, that means that the O’Brien comp pick would likely be in 2024. My guess is that is how it will ultimately play out if O’Brien can’t convince the Flyers to offer him a contract.
But there is a way for the Flyers to potentially get the compensatory second-rounder in 2023 instead. Basically, if O’Brien is made aware that he will not be signed months in advance, and he would like to get a head start on professional free agency, I’m told that there is an appeal process that could potentially make him a free agent on June 1. In that case, the Flyers’ comp pick would be in 2023. But there’s no guarantee that appeal would be approved.
In short, yes, if O’Brien is not signed, the Flyers get a second-round pick as compensation. It probably would come in 2024, but there’s a chance it could be 2023.
Even if the Hayes/Torts drama is overblown, would any teams be interested in him at the trade deadline, or is his contract too much? Not trying to get rid of him, but he fits the trade fodder mold of older guy on rebuilding team. — Eric F.
I wouldn’t rule out the possibility entirely, but a Kevin Hayes trade does strike me as more of an offseason move.
Might teams have interest in Hayes at his $7.14 million cap hit for three more seasons after this one? Doubtful, especially given that if he is moved, it’ll be the result of the Flyers being motivated to do so due to a lack of fit with Tortorella. But if the Flyers were willing to retain up to half of Hayes’ remaining cap hit, turning him into a $3.57 million middle-six center? Sure, there could be interest. That’s not just a reasonable price for Hayes — it’s legitimately good value. Don’t forget that he has 30 points in 34 games, despite the lineup drama swirling around him. The guy is still a darn good player, and teams around the league realize that.
There are two important factors that need to be taken into account, however. While a $3.57 million cap hit wouldn’t be too difficult for a team to add at the deadline after banking cap space all season, general managers are often hesitant to take on significant term at the deadline, before they have a full understanding of their future cap situation. That’s why those deals tend to happen in the offseason — when GMs have really crunched the numbers and put together rough outlines of their financial plans years into the future. If the Flyers do look to move on from Hayes, it wouldn’t shock me if he’s made available at the deadline and conversations start, but the deal itself waits until the summer.
Finally, there’s the simple variable of leverage. Yes, Hayes at $3.57 million (or whatever decreased cap hit the Flyers might choose to peddle him at) is more than fair value, especially given the importance of centers in the NHL. But Fletcher — or whatever GM is running the show in Philadelphia at that point — still has to create a market. GMs talk, and if the scuttlebutt around the league is that the Flyers will just buy Hayes out absent a trading partner, perhaps GMs choose to see if the Flyers will blink first, and then they can get Hayes for nothing except cap space. That said, if Hayes were to be bought out and hit free agency this summer, my guess is that he’d pull in more than a three-year, $10.71 million contract (what it would be if the Flyers retained half), so that cuts down on the incentive for teams to play hardball with the Flyers in trade talks. Still, it’s a possible scenario that can’t be ruled out entirely, depending on the market’s view of the player.
Travis Konecny has been in trade rumors for the better part of two years. He’s having a great season but his numbers are inflated because of the “who else is going to score on this team” syndrome. Don’t you think it would be in the best interest of the team to sell high on him given his value will never be higher? — Nabeel R.
It’s a reasonable question.
There’s certainly a case to be made that trading Konecny would be the right move, particularly if you espouse the “tear it all down” rebuild mentality. He’s having a strong year scoring-wise, and I suspect his agitator mentality and inherent chippiness would be quite appealing to contenders looking to embark on long playoff runs. With two more years left on his contract at a fair $5.5 million cap hit, Konecny could bring back quite a bit in return — I imagine a first-round pick and a B-level prospect at least. I see the logic in moving Konecny now, especially given the fact that if this is his new normal, he’d be in line for a big raise come 2025, and he’s clearly not a star-level talent. Paying him like one simply because, as Nabeel put it, someone has to score on this Flyers team, would be foolish. He’s just not the kind of game-changer that this organization so desperately needs. I wouldn’t necessarily oppose “selling high” on him as a result.
That said, I don’t think I’d personally do it.
Konecny is only 25, and in my mind, is young enough to still be delivering strong seasons when the Flyers theoretically could be poised to turn the corner. No, Konecny isn’t a true top-of-the-lineup weapon on a great team. But he would fit quite well somewhere in the range of the 4th to 6th most important forward on that club, and the Flyers could be closer than one might think to slotting him in correctly. It’s not that much of a stretch to imagine by 2024-25, he could be usurped on the “importance” chart at forward by the team’s 2023 first-round pick, Cutter Gauthier and a healthy Couturier. Suddenly, Konecny fits again.
I don’t think trading Konecny is necessarily the wrong move, and it would certainly provide an infusion of draft capital and ensure that they avoid overpaying him on his next deal. But given his rebound season, I again see a path where Konecny can be part of the long-term solution in Philadelphia. I wouldn’t rush to move him.
Aside from JVR or players on expiring contracts, who are the top three players you’d attempt to move on from after this season? — Thomas S.
1. Rasmus Ristolainen: I’m not sure how feasible this one even is, but Ristolainen’s contract so outweighs his actual on-ice value. Both Fletcher or his successor owe it to the fans to see if there’s a market for the blueliner, especially given that he’s under contract for another four years after this one. Why not see if another team overvalues his skill set and you can get out of the deal? You’ve got Ronnie Attard coming anyway, and York is showing he can succeed on the right side.
2. Kevin Hayes: Obvious reasons — so far, he’s not clicking with Tortorella, he’s 30 and he has three years left on a contract with a $7.14 million cap hit. I’m not opposed to keeping high-priced veterans around who can help build the culture that Tortorella is trying to build. But if Hayes can’t or won’t fully buy in, why not clear up some cap space if possible and maybe get an asset or two in the process if you can?
3. Ivan Provorov: His age (25) isn’t a dealbreaker, but unlike Konecny who has bounced back to 2019-20 form, Provorov basically looks like the same player from the past two seasons. Right now, he’s more of a second-pair quality blueliner getting played like a first-pair guy out of roster necessity, and my concern there is that his heavy usage will put him into a salary range on his next contract that he almost certainly won’t be able to live up to with his actual on-ice play. I believe Provorov would be a fantastic No. 3 defenseman on a contender. But he can’t be that on this team. I suspect he could be sold as a change-of-scenery candidate, and in truth, it might be the best thing for Provorov as well, to play on a winner that utilizes more of a skill-based, rush-oriented style.
Noah Cates (Brad Rempel / USA Today)
Who are the true play drivers on this team? And who is dragging everyone down? — Chris R.
There aren’t many!
Couturier certainly qualified, but who knows if he will once he returns from his second back surgery in the same calendar year (or, in a more gloomy scenario, if he returns at all). Beyond Couturier and Travis Sanheim (who has been a strong advanced stat player for years from the back end), however? The list of potential play drivers is short.
Noah Cates I believe might become one, even if he’s not quite there yet. He’s right around the break-even point in terms of expected goal impact this season despite facing tough competition and adjusting to the center position. As a middle-six winger, I believe he could absolutely be a play-driver (as he was last season), and perhaps might even turn into one down the middle at some point. He’s only 23, after all, and his defensive metrics are already stellar.
Allison also graded out exceptionally well during his end-of-season stint way back in 2020-21, and his impacts this season have been about break even as well. I don’t think he’ll ever be a traditional “line-driver” in the sense that he carries the puck up ice constantly and controls possession, but he could develop into an ideal support piece on a line the way that Scott Hartnell was, winning puck battles along the boards, being a menace on the forecheck and owning the high-danger scoring areas.
York also has play-driving potential to my eyes. His 50.80 percent xG share at five-on-five easily leads the Flyers’ defense, and his combination of smooth skating and decisive puck-moving is a skill set that often leads to strong advanced stats. He’s not going to be the next Dougie Hamilton or Charlie McAvoy by xG or Corsi, to be clear, but he could consistently move the needle in a positive direction if his development continues on this track.
As for the play draggers? Probably about who you’d expect: Nicolas Deslauriers, Zack MacEwen, Ristolainen (though his numbers this season haven’t been awful, mostly because of improvement on the defensive side). One name that has been low on the Flyers’ charts for two seasons running now that concerns me? Joel Farabee, who’s in the fifth percentile by even strength xG impact among forwards. That’s not great for a player who has long been billed as a two-way stalwart. His game absolutely needs some work, especially because he’s not dynamic enough of a scorer to thrive as a pure one-way threat.
Do you get the sense that the hire of Torts was needed more for the front office than the players? Seems like the front office is finally getting a dose of reality. — Shawndel S.
I think it was needed for both, though probably more for ownership than the front office.
The locker room desperately needed a strong infusion of accountability. By the end of last season, I believe the team as a whole was a bit too comfortable with how far things had fallen. Tortorella, of course, is the opposite of a “comfortable” head coach. He constantly aims to push players out of their comfort zones with the goal of getting the most out of each individual, and in some cases — Konecny in particular -— I think the Flyers are really benefitting from this approach.
As for the decision makers in the organization? I believe Tortorella’s outside perspective will prove beneficial, mainly because he’s a voice outside of the internal echo chamber, an echo chamber which has allowed those in ownership to convince themselves that they can retool their way out of this and that a full foundational restructuring isn’t necessary. The older advisers in the organization have long blanched at the idea of a stated rebuild, because they don’t believe it fits with the “always compete” identity and culture created by former owner Ed Snider. I believe that bias colors their vision, and in turn, has given ownership — which cares more than most fans realize about being perceived as the stewards of Snider’s legacy — the excuse they needed to avoid giving up on this broken situation and starting over.
The benefit of adding Tortorella — an unapologetically traditionalist hockey mind who has the respect of all of the old-school guys in the organization — is that he’s been screaming for months now that the emperor has no clothes (this team is nowhere near contention). As you put it, it hopefully will serve as a much-needed dose of reality from an unimpeachable source.
Torts has been about as honest about this team and these players as anyone I can remember. How long is his leash really? Will he be allowed to continue to seemingly do whatever he wants (bench the leading point scorer) even after Chuck is gone? — Eric B.
Tortorella’s leash is very long.
For starters, I suspect that Comcast Spectacor’s appetite for firing another high-priced coach right now is pretty low. Don’t forget that they’re on the hook for another season of Vigneault’s five-year, $25 million contract — they will be paying that through 2023-24. Would they pay Vigneault and Tortorella a combined $9 million to not coach their team next season? I can’t imagine they would.
But Tortorella’s job security goes beyond money. Ownership really likes Tortorella, for multiple reasons. They feel like he fits the personality of the city of Philadelphia. He’s very easy to market as well — he’s quickly become the face of the franchise, and one of the few people involved with the organization that doesn’t immediately inspire anger from fans. Finally, given the circumstances, they believe he’s done a pretty good job this season in trying to make lemonade out of lemons, particularly given the team’s injury luck. They’re not blaming Tortorella for the Flyers’ poor record.
If Fletcher is fired, does that equation change? Possibly — after all, a new GM very well might want his own coach. That said, I believe that ownership is high enough on Tortorella that they’d basically instruct a new GM hire to essentially find a way to coexist with Tortorella. That would be easy if Fletcher’s successor proves to be Daniel Brière, given that the two are already building a working relationship. If it’s someone from outside the organization, particularly a young upstart? Perhaps it would be tougher. But I still suspect that Torts would be fine, at least for the first year or so.
(Photo: John E. Sokolowski / USA Today)
