The Atlantic hurricane season may be nearing its end, but there is still the potential for a powerful storm to develop.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping a close eye on two potential systems, one of which could have impacts on the southeastern U.S. and the Bahamas in the coming days.
Subtropical Nicole has developed north of Puerto Rico and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move northward and then northwest into the southwestern Atlantic where environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development.
The current forecast track of Nicole is expected to bring impacts to the northern islands of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida.
Although Nicole is currently a subtropical storm in the Atlantic it still carries the risk of coastal flooding, tropical storm-force winds and heavy rainfall for much of the southeastern U.S. coast including eastern Florida, and portions of the Bahamas this week.
Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches could be issued for a portion of these areas by early Monday. The NHC pegs the formation chance at 80 per cent through the next 48 hours and 90 per cent in the next five days.
The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will end on Nov. 30.
Frequency of November storms
While November doesn’t produce Atlantic hurricanes every year, they have occurred during the season’s final month in multiple years. In fact, from 1950-2021, the average has been one produced every three years.
Only a handful of hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic basin since 1950. Most notably:
Nov. 15-23, 1985: Hurricane Kate, with wind gusts of 190 km/h
Nov. 13-23, 1999: Hurricane Lenny, with wind gusts of 250 km/h
Nov. 5-9 2008: Hurricane Paloma, with wind gusts of 250 km/h
Nov. 4-11, 2009: Hurricane Ida, with wind gusts of 165 km/h
Nov. 20-26, 2016: Hurricane Otto, with wind gusts of 185 km/h
It was noteworthy to have two simultaneous hurricanes churning in the Atlantic in November. Hurricanes Lisa and Martin made it the third year on record to attain the feat, the first time since 2001. If two additional systems develop this month, it will tie with 1961 for being the most active November on record.
Stay tuned to The Weather Network for the latest developments on the Atlantic hurricane season.