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    2024 NHL playoff preview: New York Rangers vs. Florida Panthers

    Peter Watson
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    2024 NHL playoff preview: New York Rangers vs. Florida Panthers

    By Shayna Goldman, Dom Luszczsyszyn and Sean Gentille

    The Presidents’ Trophy-winning New York Rangers finished first in the Metropolitan Divisions, while the Florida Panthers won the Atlantic.

    That makes this upcoming series, which opens Wednesday in New York, a true test of the best in the Eastern Conference.

    New York has already made it further than it did last year. But now comes the challenge of besting their 2022 season, in which they reached the Eastern Conference final after ousting the Hurricanes in Round 2.

    The Panthers know what’s waiting for them if they can muster four more wins: a chance at redemption after last year’s Stanley Cup Final loss.

    So who will become the final Eastern Conference team standing?

    The odds

    A 114-point Rangers team triumphed against an opponent — the Carolina Hurricanes — that always fumbles in the middle of the playoffs, proving they should’ve been more respected by math in the first place. Sorry!

    What did we learn from that experience? Apparently nothing, giving the Rangers a 35 percent chance against the Panthers.

    That has less to do with any hatred toward the Rangers and more to do with their opponents. They would’ve been favored against anyone else in the East — just not Carolina or Florida, two teams the model simply holds in higher esteem.

    We saw how that played out in Round 2, but 35 percent is no guarantee — or an indication of a particularly lopsided series, for that matter. The margins on a game-to-game basis are much slimmer than the series odds may appear: nearly 50-50 odds for the Rangers on home ice, and a bit below 40-60 on the road. In terms of expected goal margin, we’re talking 2.9-3.0 at home and 2.7-3.4 on the road.

    Those margins are enough to give Florida a significant chance at prevailing in a seven-game series — but it’s hard not to believe destiny could be on New York’s side.

    The numbers

    Just two goals separate the Rangers and Panthers defensively.

    Defense has been a strength for Florida all season, thanks to their steady blue line and some strong two-way skaters up front at even strength and on the penalty kill. Tampa Bay challenged that in Round 1. The Panthers allowed more shots and scoring chances than usual to open the postseason, and were a bit leakier on the kill.

    Florida tightened up against the Bruins, conceding almost 13 attempts and 0.21 expected goals fewer per 60 between rounds at five-on-five. Boston only mustered one goal in almost 26 minutes of power-play time against the Panthers’ penalty kill through six games.

    The Rangers came into the playoffs as a pretty solid defensive team and carried that into Round 1. They weren’t tested as much against the Washington Capitals, but the Hurricanes were a different animal. For all the shot volume Carolina created, New York did its best to limit higher-danger shots, especially through the first half of the series. That extended to the penalty kill. The Rangers now have broken even in short-handed goals, with four for and four against.

    Offense is where Florida has the real edge. The Panthers create more shots and quality chances than New York. In the regular season, the Rangers had better finishing to show for it at five-on-five. Both teams lean on a lot of high-danger passing and puck movement, and Florida is a better team at defending off the rush, which will present a challenge for the Rangers. New York, however, has a knack for making more out of less.

    Through two rounds of the playoffs, the Panthers are converting on their chances and scoring more than expected. That just hasn’t trickled to the power play, where the Rangers thrive.

    The big question

    Can the Rangers keep up their knack for winning close games?

    Just win, baby. At the end of the day, that’s all that matters.

    No team has embodied that more than the Rangers. In 92 regular-season and playoff games, they have 63 wins and a .684 win percentage that’s unmatched. So why aren’t their chances of advancing higher?

    The answer is simple: goal differential. New York’s plus-53 ranks seventh. That’s a lot closer to where oddsmakers had the team’s Cup chances to start the postseason (sixth) as well as our own odds (fifth).

    Some may scoff at that notion, but if they’re looking for answers as to why the Presidents’ Trophy winners are again entering a series as underdogs, that’s basically it. It may feel like unfair treatment for the team with the best record, but the unusual part is a team earning the best record with the seventh-best goal differential.

    Not only has that never happened before (in a league with at least 20 teams), but the last time a Presidents’ Trophy winner was even outside the top three was in 1979.

    Pres. Trophy goal diff. since ’79

    Rank Instances

    First

    29

    Second

    9

    Third

    4

    Fourth

    1

    Fifth

    0

    Six

    0

    Seventh

    1

    When it comes to figuring out team strength, margin of victory plays a big role. Modeling player value to figure that out goes down the same path. It all comes down to how a player affects goals for and goals against — not wins.

    That’s a key distinction, and it’s why there’s a disconnect when a team’s record doesn’t quite align with its ability to outscore opponents. The two are very highly correlated, but not perfectly so.

    The reason the Rangers won more games than their goal differential dictated is the same reason they aren’t more highly regarded here: their record in one-goal games. Generally speaking, that’s not something that can be counted on with consistency. Margin of victory speaks volumes about a team’s ability.

    Don’t get us wrong, the Rangers still had a very strong record in games not decided by one goal. They’re an elite team. But a 23-4-4 record in one-goal games did a lot of heavy lifting toward their finish as the league’s top team.

    All of that speaks to why the math is not on New York’s side in this series … just as it wasn’t in Round 2 against Carolina. What happened there? Three straight one-goal wins to open up the series, naturally.

    Some might call that good fortune with potential to regress at the cruelest time.

    But after a full season of winning that exact way, there’s plenty of room to believe the Rangers have the It Factor necessary to keep it up. Maybe they do just have an innate ability to win those close, tight games of attrition — the ones that Stanley Cup championships are built off of.

    It might even be the magic of Peter Laviolette, whose 2005-06 Hurricanes won the Stanley Cup with their own consistent ability to be one goal better. They went 28-5-8 in one-goal games during the regular season to lead the league, before winning 10 of their 16 playoff games by a single goal.

    That’s really all it takes: one more goal than the other guys.

    Our estimation might have the Panthers as the stronger team, but the Rangers’ ability to get that extra goal more than any other team can’t be ignored. When the expected margin in each game is under one goal, New York’s knack for getting it could very well be the difference.

    The X-factor

    Can Florida match New York’s special-teams mastery?

    For the Rangers, a big part of that knack comes from their power-play performance. In the regular season, they were third in percentage (26.4), fourth in goals (0.79 per game) and sixth in expected goals/60 (10.17). That mix of process and results has carried over into the playoffs, where they’re second only to Edmonton in goals per game (1.1) and percentage (31.4). They’ve won all six games in which they’ve scored a power-play goal, including the clincher against Carolina. On the other side of things, their penalty kill (89.5 percent) has been the most effective in the league.

    It’d be an edge over almost any other opponent — including the Panthers, who were a top-10 power-play team but have watched their production dip in the playoffs. They’ve scored eight times in 11 games, which is fine, but four of those came in Game 3 against Boston.

    The good news for the Panthers: They’re getting looks, and actually beating the Rangers in expected goals/60 (11.5 to 10.3). That fact, combined with their track record of power-play success and a penalty kill that has limited opportunities better than 14 other playoff teams, will give them a shot at neutralizing one of New York’s major advantages.

    The rosters

    A series between the Rangers and Panthers brings a ton of star power. Florida knows what its best can do on the biggest stage. The question is whether New York’s leading players can bring it consistently.

    That starts with Artemi Panarin. The Panarin line thrived in Games 1-3 of Round 2, with 74 percent of the expected goals share and a 4-3 edge in scoring. But Carolina exposed some of their defensive flaws in the second half of the series.

    While Panarin has delivered timely scoring throughout the playoffs, against the Panthers there may not be as much room for error in the defensive zone. The bright side is that Panarin’s linemates have brought it all postseason long, to give that line more than one threat. Alexis Lafrenière’s Net Rating has increased the most of any player in this series since the playoffs kicked off, with a plus-2.1 goals improvement. Vincent Trocheck has been leaned on heavily in all situations and has stirred the pot through two rounds, which should match up well with Matthew Tkachuk’s rat-king antics.

    New York needs more than one line to click, which puts pressure on the rest of the lineup. Chris Kreider rose to the occasion with a massive third period in Game 6 to get the Rangers here, but the bottom-six raises more questions.

    Kaapo Kakko, Alex Wennberg and Will Cuylle can wear down opponents and control play, but they don’t contribute much scoring. Filip Chytil is a potential spark to change that if he’s available. With him in the fold, the Rangers are a deeper, more flexible team. Without him, there isn’t a trusty 12th forward for the coaches to lean on, which has led to top-sixers getting double-shifted.

    The Rangers’ defense got dealt a much tougher workload in Round 2 against Carolina. And with more challenging competition came some adjustments. K’Andre Miller’s pair was shifted back into heavier matchups to lighten the load on the Adam Fox–Ryan Lindgren pairing.

    Fox alone brings a plus-17 Rating, which counters the Panthers’ entire top pair. Add Lindgren’s minus-3 Net Rating, and they slip below Florida; his value has declined more than any other player in this series. By redistributing some of that burden, the Rangers avoid burying their best defenseman.

    But what does that matchup pair look like in Round 3?

    Miller was rolling with Braden Schneider in the playoffs until Game 6 against Carolina, when he was reunited with Jacob Trouba. Miller-Schneider was far from perfect, but Trouba’s numbers at least improved in a more sheltered role. Adding to his workload now could be risky.

    The Rangers at least have a safety net in goalie Igor Shesterkin. He’s been excellent so far no matter the workload he’s faced, whether that means a low-event game, a ton of low-danger shots or more dynamic chances. Through 10 games, he’s given the Rangers eight quality starts.

    The Panthers differ from the Rangers on the back end. They have fine goaltending in Sergei Bobrovsky, though this isn’t the Playoff Bob of last year. Florida makes up for that with a much stronger blue line.

    That starts with Gustav Forsling, one of the best shutdown defensemen in the league. With Aaron Ekblad on the top pair, their Defensive Ratings have slipped a bit — but they’ve also faced a steady dose of elite talent, with matchups against the likes of Nikita Kucherov and David Pastrnak.

    That pair plays heavy minutes so that Brandon Montour can stick to his offensive strengths. With Niko Mikkola, the second pair has a plus-8 Net Rating, which crushes the Rangers’ second pair which sits at a minus-5.

    Montour and Forsling give the Panthers two defensemen with upward of a plus-10 Net Rating. Their forward group stacks another four on top of that, between Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk. That’s four playoff performers at the top of the lineup.

    In Reinhart and Barkov, the Panthers have a pair of elite two-way threats who are heavily leaned upon in all situations. Reinhart’s scoring pace in the postseason may not match his unbelievable regular-season heights, but he continues to put up a ton of shots and scoring chances on a nightly basis. And at five-on-five alongside Barkov, he has some of the best two-way impact on Florida’s expected goal suppression and creation, relative to his teammates.

    Those two drive the top line, which allows Vladimir Tarasenko to more fittingly be the passenger who adds some scoring pop from the left wing.

    The Verhaeghe-Tkachuk combination on the second line is as clutch as it gets. Verhaeghe is a huge threat off the rush and raises his game whenever the playoffs roll around; his Net Rating has jumped by 0.5 so far this postseason, thanks to his two-way play.

    Tkachuk’s scoring may not match last postseason’s torrid pace, but he is still tied with Barkov as the most valuable forward in this series with a plus-22 Net Rating. He’s scoring at over a point-per-game pace, with 14 in 11 games, and has made a strong impact on the Panthers’ expected and actual goal generation at five-on-five. Florida has managed without Tkachuk being their MVP, but that game-breaking skill could always get unlocked this series — he showed just how much he thrives in these situations last year.

    A healthy Sam Bennett is back to skating between Tkachuck and Verhaeghe. While Bennett made his mark on the Bruins series, the wingers actually were stronger with Lundell between them — that line outscored opponents 5-1 while earning a 63 percent expected goals rate.

    Lundell emerged as a strong member of the supporting cast after having a relatively underwhelming regular season. Now he has to carry the success that he has had with Tkachuk and Verhaeghe to a third line that has struggled so far this postseason.

    The key matchup

    Mika Zibanejad vs. Aleksander Barkov

    We were close to not getting this matchup at all. Barkov blocked a shot with his hand down the stretch in Florida’s clincher against Boston. “I’m fine, I’m good,” Barkov told Sportsnet after the game. Assuming that’s the truth, he’ll have the opportunity to build on what may have been the signature playoff series of his career thus far. Barkov had eight points against the Bruins, and the Panthers outscored Boston 5-4 with him on the ice at five-on-five, also controlling more than 62 percent of the expected goal share. It was a dominant showing on both sides of the puck, and exactly the sort of series that puts players in the Conn Smythe Trophy discussion.

    Zibanejad, though, is significantly better than any of the centers Boston could throw at the Panthers. Like Barkov, he’s a do-everything, first-line stud, and he’s seen his point production tick upward in the playoffs. After a (relatively) down offensive season, he had points in each of New York’s first eight playoff games. New York’s top line of Zibanejad, Kreider and Jack Roslovic hasn’t quite controlled the run of play at five-on-five — they’re at about 45 percent expected goals — but they’ve outscored their issues. They may have to do the same against Barkov’s line. It’s a tall task, but not an impossible one.

    The bottom line

    A 65 percent chance is far from a lock — the Rangers already know that. They look destined for greatness.

    Still, the Panthers may be their toughest challenge yet, a team that skillfully blends suffocating structure with game-breaking star power.

    References

    How these projections work
    Understanding projection uncertainty 

    Resources

    Evolving Hockey
    Natural Stat Trick
    Hockey Reference
    NHL
    All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder

    (Photo: Jared Silber / NHLI via Getty Images)

    A model outlining the microscopic origin of black hole entropy

    Peter Watson
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    A model outlining the microscopic origin of black hole entropy

    This article has been reviewed according to Science X’s editorial process
    and policies.
    Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content’s credibility:

    fact-checked

    peer-reviewed publication

    trusted source

    proofread

    by Ingrid Fadelli

    , Phys.org


    The quantum superposition of two black hole microstates is equivalent to a different microstate. Credit: Aruna Balasubramanian

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    The quantum superposition of two black hole microstates is equivalent to a different microstate. Credit: Aruna Balasubramanian

    Black holes are intriguing astronomical objects that have a gravitational pull so strong that it prevents any object and even light from escaping. While black holes have been the topic of numerous astrophysical studies, their origins and underlying physics remain largely a mystery.

    Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania and the Centro Atómico Bariloche recently introduced a new model of black hole microstates regarding the origin of entropy (i.e., the degree of disorder) in black holes.

    This model, presented in a paper published in Physical Review Letters, provides an alternative perspective on black holes that could inform future astrophysics research.

    “The Bekenstein-Hawking entropy formula, which describes the thermodynamics of black holes, was discovered in the 1970s,” Vijay Balasubramanian, co-author of the paper, told Phys.org. “This formula suggests that black holes have an entropy proportional to the area of their horizons.

    “According to statistical physics, as developed by Boltzmann and Gibbs in the late 19th century, the entropy of a system is related to the number of microscopic configurations that have the same macroscopic description.

    “In a quantum mechanical world like ours, entropy arises from the quantum superpositions of ‘microstates,’ that is, microscopic constituents that yield the same observable traits at large scales.”

    Physicists have been trying to provide a credible account of black hole entropy for decades. In the 1990s, Andrew Strominger and Cumrun Vafa leveraged a hypothetical property known as “supersymmetry” to devise a method to count the microstates of a special class of black holes for which mass equals the electromagnetic charge, in universes with extra dimensions and multiple kinds of electric and magnetic fields.

    To explain the origin of entropy of black holes in universes like ours, Balasubramanian and his colleagues had to create a new theoretical framework.

    “Despite previous attempts, there has so far been no account that applies to the sorts of black holes that form from stellar collapse in our world,” Balasubramanian said. “Our goal was to provide such an account.”

    The primary contribution of this recent work was to introduce the new model of black hole microstates, which can be described in terms of collapsing dust shells inside the black hole. In addition, the researchers devised a technique to count the ways of superposing these microstates quantum mechanically.

    “The key insight of our work is that very different spacetime geometries corresponding to apparently distinct microstates can mix with each other because of the subtle effects of quantum mechanical ‘wormholes’ that link distant regions of space,” Balasubramanian said.

    “After accounting for the effects of these wormholes, our results showed that for any universe containing gravity and matter, a black hole’s entropy is directly proportional to the area of its event horizon, as Bekenstein and Hawking proposed.”

    The recent work by Balasubramanian and his colleagues introduces a new way of thinking about black hole microstates. Their model specifically describes them as quantum superpositions of simple objects that are well-described by classical physical theories of matter and spacetime geometry.

    “This is very surprising, because the community had expected that a microscopic explanation of the entropy of black holes would require the full apparatus of a quantum theory of gravity, such as string theory,” Balasubramanian said.

    “We also show that universes that differ from each other at macroscopic, even cosmic, scales can sometimes be understood as quantum superpositions of other, macroscopically different universes. This is a manifestation of quantum mechanics at the scale of the entire universe, which is surprising given that we typically associate quantum mechanics to small scale phenomena.”

    The newly introduced theoretical framework could pave the way for other theoretical work aimed at explaining the thermodynamics of black holes. Meanwhile, the researchers plan to expand and enrich their description of black hole microstates.

    “We are now studying to what extent, and in what circumstances, an observer outside the event horizon can determine which microstate a black hole is in,” Balasubramanian added.

    More information:
    Vijay Balasubramanian et al, Microscopic Origin of the Entropy of Astrophysical Black Holes, Physical Review Letters (2024). DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.132.141501

    Journal information:
    Physical Review Letters


    © 2024 Science X Network

    Why fed-up conservatives are pushing a ‘Move Oregon’s Border’ effort

    Peter Watson
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    Why fed-up conservatives are pushing a ‘Move Oregon’s Border’ effort

    An Oregon ballot initiative is the latest in a long line of secession efforts that speak to the nation’s sharp divide.

    play

    PRINEVILLE, Oregon ‒ Tens of thousands of rural, conservative eastern Oregon residents are so frustrated with their liberal urban neighbors they’ve decided they can no longer even share a ZIP code.

    The “Greater Idaho Movement” would shift the Oregon border 200 miles west, a secession effort aligning the conservative farming, ranching and logging communities of eastern Oregon with their like-minded neighbors to the east. A dozen counties in eastern Oregon have already approved the plan, and voters in Crook County and the county seat of Prineville are currently considering the non-binding measure with results due Tuesday.

    “I love Oregon but I just don’t love the people running it right now,” said Eric Smith, 48, who owns two retail shops on Prineville’s main street. “It doesn’t feel like they want to keep us anyway.”

    Across Crook County, pop. 26,325, even voters who oppose the measure say they’re tired of the dictates from liberal lawmakers in the state capital of Salem and the state’s population center of Portland, citing marijuana legalization, efforts to reduce fossil fuel use, gun-control measures and how the state handled the coronavirus pandemic.

    The sentiment in eastern Oregon reflects a broader national frustration and divide over the direction of the country that’s playing out in school districts, university campuses and big cities, all the way up to Congress.

    A 2023 study by a Colby College professor found that more than 25% of Americans support some sort of secession by states, and nearly 25% percent agreed it “makes sense to split the country up.”

    Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican, highlighted the division many Americans feel when she tweeted in February 2023 that “we need a national divorce. We need to separate by red states and blue states and shrink the federal government…”

    Ryan D. Griffiths, a political science professor at Syracuse University, said the Oregon ballot initiative is the latest in a long line of efforts, though most have never amounted to more than slogans and bumper stickers. Among them: the failed “State of Jefferson” proposal in Northern California, simmering secession movements in Vermont and Texas, and a short-lived effort to move a chunk of Northern Colorado into Wyoming.

    Griffiths said like other secession efforts, the Greater Idaho Movement lacks a significant groundswell of public support, and in most cases is more of a referendum on state-level governance.

    “It’s a pipe dream, in a way. What they’re doing is partly performative, for ideological purposes,” he said. “A lot of time, secessionist movements are really just bargaining efforts.”

    Griffiths said scholars who study secession efforts, like those of the former U.S.S.R., see U.S.-based movements as “pretty lightweight stuff.” But he also acknowledged secession efforts like Greater Idaho keep bubbling up.

    “It’s gaining a weird creeping momentum,” he said of proposed partisan divorces.

    “If you imagine a full-blown project to divide America into red and blue states, that would be incredibly dangerous because you’d have to partition people off,” he said. “You don’t actually have neatly sorted populations, despite what many people think.”

    Should neighbors share the same values?

    In Oregon, the measure’s backers say they’re using a peaceful, existing political process to reduce friction between people at opposite ends of the political spectrum who are already living separate lives within the state. Supporters say they don’t want to just sell their homes and move to another state because they like living where they are.

    “People have already sorted themselves into like-minded communities,” said Matt McCaw, a Greater Idaho movement spokesman. “People like to live around people who share the same values they do.”

    Smith, the shop owner, used to live in nearby Bend, part of the far more liberal Deschutes County, but left in frustration over its political direction.

    In the 2020 presidential election, Deschutes County voted 52% for Joe Biden, while Crook County, where he now lives, gave Trump 73% of its vote. The measure’s backers say they likely won’t seek support from Deschutes voters, even though the county is considered part of eastern Oregon.

    Smith said he’s not sure how he’ll vote on secession, but he understands why people support it.

    “Quit treating us like Portland,” he said, echoing the sentiment of many Crook County residents.

    Experts say the kind of self-segregation decisions people like Smith make are reflected in recent migrations nationally to states like Texas and Florida, but also in the “white flight” movement of the 1950s and 1960s, as white city-dwellers moved to the suburbs.

    The Greater Idaho movement would need approval from both Oregon and Idaho’s legislatures, along with Congress. Also undetermined would be how the Native American reservations in Eastern Oregon would be incorporated, as they span county and state borders.

    McCaw, a foster parent who lives north of Prineville, said he doesn’t want to be forced to accept that there are more than two genders, or that people can change genders, and is frustrated by liberals who reject the role of the Christian church in daily life.

    He said he and many of his neighbors are also still upset by how Oregon required businesses and churches to close during the coronavirus pandemic, compared to the looser restrictions in Idaho.

    “We were forced into things we didn’t want and it was all done under the threat of punishment from the western part of state,” he said. “That opened a lot of people’s eyes. It’s one thing to see the legislature pass policies you don’t agree with, and another to have your business closed, couldn’t go to church.”

    Workers and owners shop in the same stores

    Above all, Crook County residents say, is the idea they know their neighbors, from the farmers and ranchers to the tech support workers at the massive Facebook and Apple data centers, and the ladies behind the counter at the Sandwich Factory.

    Prineville shop worker Amanda Halcom, 30, said she’s still unsure how she’ll vote. She said the cost of housing is going up, and she worries drug abuse is increasing. She said she believes many of the laws passed by Oregon’s legislature will ultimately make Crook County more urban.

    She said knowing her neighbors, taking personal responsibility for her actions and solving local problems locally are important values.

    “We are supposed to be a small town. That’s whole point,” said Halcom, who worries about raising her kids in what she considers an increasingly liberal environment. “That’s the kind of stuff we move here for.”

    One concern: what would happen to Halcom’s pay if eastern Oregon joined Idaho. While minimum wage in Crook County is $13.20 per hour, it’s $7.25 an hour in Idaho.

    The nearest Walmart to Prineville is 30 miles away, and political concerns are usually more focused on whether a new dollar store fits into the community, and if nonprofit cleanup groups should get free access to the county dump.

    Generally, Crook County has more in common with Idaho than most of its own state: The county is overall less racially diverse than both Oregon as a whole and the entire United States, and people living there earn less money than Oregon’s average. Crook County’s median family income is about $75,000, while it’s about $70,000 in Idaho and almost $87,000 for Oregon statewide.

    “The mill owner and the mill worker have to go to the same restaurant, shop at the same grocery store. That keeps things in check,” said Seth Crawford, a Crook County commissioner.

    Crawford hasn’t taken a formal position on the proposal, but he understands why many of his neighbors support it. He said he shares their concerns with how things are decided by “The Valley” ‒ the western Willamette Valley that’s home to 70% of the state’s population in Portland, Eugene and Salem.

    Crawford has knocked on hundreds of his neighbors’ doors during his election campaigns and said he regularly hears the same concerns, from statewide marijuana legalization that Crook County opposed to complaints about how legislators want to regulate guns. People are also frustrated about paying higher taxes to fund government services they oppose, and want the freedom to raise their families as they see fit.

    And while he said he still believes Crook County can make its voice heard at the statehouse, he understands why his neighbors might be willing to take the drastic step of secession.

    “They want to be able to send a message to Salem: We’re not happy with the situation we’re in,” Crawford said.

    People are tired of arguing

    Competing signs across Prineville call to “Move Oregon’s Border” or urge voters to reject the effort with an “IdaNo!”

    Secession supporter Josh Derrick, 44, said he thinks things go further than disagreements over how to live. He said fundamental lifestyle differences indicate a lack of common ground.

    Derrick sells RVs, mostly the kind that require a large pickup to tow. But he keeps smaller ones on hand too, to sell to SUV-driving liberals who won’t buy trucks.

    “People are just tired of arguing,” he said. “I want to work, make money, play with my toys and go fishing.”

    Derrick said he never used to pay much attention to local politics, but got involved as the Greater Idaho movement came to his attention.

    “I love Oregon. The chances of (the initiative) going through are pretty slim. But it’s getting a lot more people involved in politics,” he said. “If this gets more people involved, I count that as a win.”

    Besides, he laughed, “I don’t hate liberals. I still need their money.”

    McCaw, the initiative spokesman, said even if the Crook County vote fails, the Greater Idaho Movement will persist.

    He said he believes Americans are just too divided, and that while people who disagree can live side-by-side, Oregon’s liberal politicians consistently force their values onto rural areas. He said if other states decide to follow suit, so be it ‒ there’s a process for changing boundaries for this exact reason.

    “I don’t think we can sustain the path we are on,” McCaw said said. “We need to be OK saying your values are yours, mine are mine, and you have to respect our ability to have different views.”

    Smith, the shop owner, said he might vote against the initiative because he favors keeping Oregon whole. Munching on a McDonald’s hash brown, Smith said he opened two shops because he’s confident Prineville and Crook County are good places to be.

    He just wishes, he said, that politicians in Salem would listen to eastern Oregon’s concerns so that this talk of secession would die down.

    Smith said he appreciates that Oregon has a wide diversity of thought and lifestyles, geography and employment: “That’s what made Oregon, Oregon. And I don’t want to let that go.”

    Interest rate cuts in summer possible, says Bank deputy

    Peter Watson
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    0
    Interest rate cuts in summer possible, says Bank deputy

    Image source, Getty Images

    The Bank of England has given its strongest hint yet that interest rates could be cut this summer.

    Bank deputy governor Ben Broadbent said in a speech that a rate cut at “some time” over the summer was “possible”.

    His comments come ahead of figures on Wednesday that are expected to show a sharp drop in inflation, which measures the rate at which prices are increasing.

    Earlier this month, the Bank indicated that rate cuts were likely to be actively considered in June and August, depending on how the economy performed.

    Mr Broadbent has one vote on the Bank’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that decides interest rates.

    Earlier this month, two members of the panel voted for a cut, though rates were maintained at 5.25%. Mr Broadbent voted with the majority to keep borrowing costs at the current 16-year high.

    Next month’s meeting is Mr Broadbent’s last before he leaves the Bank in July.

    In a speech on Monday, he said that there was a range of views across the MPC about how much economic evidence was needed to reduce interest rates.

    “The experience of the last two or three years has made people wary. Equally, the behaviour of the economy over the last six months… is reassuring,” he said.

    He pointed to analysis that inflation may not be as persistent as originally feared.

    While the rate has been falling over the past year, it has remained higher than some economists had forecast and this has pushed back expectations of when the Bank will cut rates.

    The most recent inflation data showed that prices rose by 3.2% in the year to March, although the figure released this week is expected to see the rate drop close to the Bank’s target of 2%.

    When the Bank of England held rates earlier this month, its governor, Andrew Bailey, said it needed to “see more evidence” that price rises have slowed further before cutting interest rates.

    However, Mr Bailey added he was “optimistic that things are moving in the right direction”.

    Fixed mortgage rates fell sharply at the beginning of the year as financial markets forecast that the Bank could cut rates a number of times in 2024.

    Since then, mortgage rates have increased and remained volatile, as financial markets follow developments in the US where inflation has also not fallen as quickly as expected.

    Ways to make your mortgage more affordable

    • Make overpayments. If you still have some time on a low fixed-rate deal, you might be able to pay more now to save later.
    • Move to an interest-only mortgage. It can keep your monthly payments affordable although you won’t be paying off the debt accrued when purchasing your house.
    • Extend the life of your mortgage. The typical mortgage term is 25 years, but 30 and even 40-year terms are now available.

    Who died alongside Iran’s President Raisi in the helicopter crash? | Politics News

    Peter Watson
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    Who died alongside Iran’s President Raisi in the helicopter crash? | Politics News

    President Ebrahim Raisi, his foreign minister, and other senior officials are confirmed to have died in a helicopter crash after a long overnight search in dense fog and snow in the mountainous terrain of Iran’s rugged East Azerbaijan province.

    Their bodies were found on Monday morning, some hours after their chopper crashed, state media reported.

    The accident challenges the country’s senior leadership, with Iran in the midst of heightened regional and global tensions centred on the war in Gaza.

    Here’s a look at the officials who were killed:

    Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s president

    The 63-year-old Iranian leader was long viewed as the next-in-line to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s highest authority.

    Raisi was a hardline religious conservative with deep ties to Iran’s judiciary and religious elite.

    While in his early 20s, he was appointed prosecutor in several cities until he landed a post in the capital of Tehran to work as a deputy prosecutor in 1989.

    His first attempt at winning the presidency in 2017 failed, but he eventually succeeded in 2021.

    Raisi had risen through the ranks over the years, in 2016 becoming chairman of the Astan Quds Razavi (AQR), the biggest religious endowment in Mashhad, which cemented his status in Iran’s establishment. The AQR is a colossal bonyad, or charitable trust, that has billions of dollars in assets and is the custodian of the shrine of Imam Reza, the eighth Shia imam.

    But the most recent Iranian president has faced controversy over the years.


    In 1988, he was part of a committee overseeing a series of executions of political prisoners. That made him unpopular among the Iranian opposition and led to the US imposing sanctions on him.

    More recently, he was angered by the US’s stance towards Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal – known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – and the inability of other signatories to save the pact. As a result, he announced that Iran was ramping up its nuclear programme, but also said Tehran was not interested in building a bomb.

    Raisi was also a staunch ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, supporting his government’s war against the Syrian opposition, which has left hundreds of thousands dead.

    He also led the country during the 2022 protests over the death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran’s morality police, a period during which the UN said Iran committed crimes against humanity in its crackdown.

    Most recently, Raisi led Iran through a standoff with Israel over its ongoing war in Gaza.

    Iran has been outspoken against the war, as have its regional allies in the so-called “axis of resistance” to Israel and its Western allies.

    Hossein Amirabdollahian, Iran’s foreign minister

    The top Iranian diplomat, who was with President Raisi in the helicopter that crashed, played a significant role in shifting Iran’s foreign policy from engagement with the West to improving relations with its regional neighbours.


    Amirabdollahian, 60, had served in several positions in the Iranian Foreign Ministry since 1997, including as ambassador to Bahrain and deputy foreign minister for Arab and African affairs.

    Raisi nominated him as foreign minister after he became president in 2021.

    Amirabdollahian helped restore Iran’s diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia as part of a Chinese-brokered agreement and visited the kingdom in 2023 in a major thaw of relations between the two countries.

    Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, Amirabdollahian has been travelling across the Middle East to coordinate with allies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, and convey Iran’s positions to countries in the region.

    He had a PhD in international relations from the University of Tehran.

    Malik Rahmati, governor of Iran’s East Azerbaijan Province

    Malek Rahmati was recently appointed the East Azerbaijan province’s new governor by the Iranian cabinet.

    Prior to this, he had taken on a number of roles within Iran’s political system.

    He was previously appointed the head of Iran’s Privatization Organization, as well as deputy director of the AQR.

    Rahmati was also once head of the Razavi Economic Organization, which was established in the late 1990s to procure the financial resources of the AQR; and member of the board of directors, and deputy head of the Kowsar Economic Organization, an entity active in many economic sectors, including mining, agriculture and healthcare.


    Rahmati had also served in several other managerial positions in Iran’s Ministry of Interior.

    Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Al-Hashem, representative of the Iranian supreme leader to East Azerbaijan

    The supreme leader’s representative in East Azerbaijan province and an imam in the city of Tabriz, Mohammad Ali Ale-Hashem was also among those killed.

    Ale-Hashim was additionally a member of the Expediency Council’s provincial chamber and a provincial deputy in the Assembly of Experts.

    Who else was killed?

    Sardar Seyed Mehdi Mousavi, head of Raisi’s guard team, the helicopter’s pilot Colonel Seyed Taher Mostafavi, co-pilot Colonel Mohsen Daryanush, and flight technician Major Behrouz Ghadimi, also all perished in the crash.

    Aviation analyst Kyle Bailey told Al Jazeera the lack of communication from the helicopter pilot or another flight crew member likely means the crash was due to a “serious controllability issue”.

    If a helicopter has a serious technical issue mid-flight, the pilot’s first task is to “keep the plane flying, and then communications would be second”, he said.

    From left: Technician Behrouz Ghadimi, pilot Seyed Taher Mostafavi, and co-pilot Mohsen Daryanush, the crew of the helicopter that had Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on board and crashed in Iran’s East Azerbaijan province on May 19, 2024 [Handout via Al Jazeera]

    Ethereum vs. Solana: Social buzz can result in a bull run for one token

    Peter Watson
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    Ethereum vs. Solana: Social buzz can result in a bull run for one token
    • SOL and ETH saw social media buzz recently.
    • The SOL and ETH prices have crossed into new price zones this week.

    Social media platforms were buzzing with discussions about Ethereum [ETH] and Solana [SOL] recently, fueled by notable price movements as they entered new price zones.

    There has been a significant change in their Total Value Locked (TVL) over the last month, adding to the excitement surrounding these assets.

    Solana and Ethereum see positive social metrics

    According to data from Lunar Crush, Solana and Ethereum recently experienced similar and intriguing social media trends. Ethereum had a social dominance of 9.35%, while Solana had 8.85%.

    SOL garnered 42.4 million social interactions, whereas ETH recorded 45.18 million. Both assets also boasted positive sentiments, with an 85% positivity rate.

    However, an analysis of social dominance on Santiment revealed a shift. Solana’s social dominance decreased to around 4.7%, while Ethereum’s declined to 7% at the time of this writing.

    Source: Santiment

    SOL and ETH enter new price zones

    The analysis of Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) price trends explains the recent increase in social metrics. 

    A daily time frame chart for Ethereum showed that it recently re-entered the $3,000 price range. On the 18th of May, ETH added less than 1%, pushing its price into the $3,100 zone for the first time in weeks.

    At the time of this writing, ETH was trading at around $3,107, though it had declined by approximately 0.5%.

    Despite the slight decrease, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated that ETH remained in a weak bull trend.

    Source: TradingView

    On the other hand, Solana has been experiencing consecutive uptrends over the past few days. The chart revealed that SOL’s price increased by about 20% from the 15th of May to press time.

    At the time of this writing, SOL was trading at around $172 with a less than 1% increase. The RSI showed that SOL remained in a strong bull trend.

    Source: TradingView

    Solana sees more TVL growth than Ethereum

    Analysis of the Total Value Locked (TVL) for Ethereum and Solana indicated that both have increased over the past seven days and one month. However, Solana has experienced a more significant rise. 

    Read Ethereum’s [ETH] Price Prediction 2024-25

    According to data from DefiLlama, Solana’s TVL increased by approximately 11.60% in the past seven days and about 23.8% in the last month.

    Ethereum’s TVL rose by around 4.6% over the past seven days and 6.2% in the last month. At the time of this writing, SOL’s TVL was $4.7 billion, while ETH’s TVL was around $55.2 billion.

    Trump is out ‘for revenge,’ not to lead country

    Peter Watson
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    Trump is out ‘for revenge,’ not to lead country

    Detroit — Democratic President Joe Biden told a crowd in Detroit Sunday night that Republican Donald Trump is out for “revenge” and would pose a bigger threat to the country in his second term than he did in his first.

    Biden made the remarks during a speech at the NAACP Detroit Branch’s 69th annual Fight for Freedom Fund Dinner inside Huntington Place, where he pivoted between touting his own policies and blasting his GOP opponent five months before the November election.

    “Folks, Trump isn’t running to lead America,” Biden said at one point. “He is running for revenge. Revenge is no way to lead the country. You can’t build a future on revenge.”

    The Democratic president described Trump as “unhinged” and unable to accept the fact he lost the 2020 presidential election. Biden said Trump would pardon individuals who were sentenced to prison for crimes related to the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, an event that ensued as Trump’s supporters attempted to upend the certification of the election.

    play

    Biden in Detroit: ‘Together me make history we do not erase it.’

    Biden slams Trump: ‘What do you think he would have done on Jan. 6 if Black Americans had stormed the Capitol?’

    “What do you think he would have done on Jan. 6 if Black Americans had stormed the Capitol? No, I’m serious. What do you think? I can only imagine,” Biden said, drawing applause from the majority Black crowd of thousands of people.

    Biden spent much of the day reaching out to Black voters. On Sunday morning, before traveling to Michigan, he delivered the commencement address at Morehouse College, a historically Black college in Atlanta.

    In a statement, Janiyah Thomas, the Trump campaign’s Black media coordinator, said Biden was “on a pandering tour because he knows what we all know: Without the Black vote, there is no Democrat Party.”

    “Today, Black voters can see through what Joe Biden is trying to sell because they know, like all Americans, that inflation is eating away at wages, the border is in chaos, and in big blue cities, Black children are trapped in unsafe neighborhoods and failing schools,” Thomas said.

    Attendees react to speech

    Some attendees at the NAACP dinner had a positive reaction to Biden’s speech.

    “It was an amazing speech,” said Sydnia Thomas of Roseville. “I couldn’t believe it. I was overwhelmed. I’ve never seen a president in person before.”

    Cheryl Thomas of Detroit said she likes what Biden stands for.

    “He said during the speech that the first organization he ever joined was the NAACP, and that speaks volumes about the kind of person he is,” Thomas said.

    But Ali Dagher of Dearborn was more critical.

    “It was a campaign speech — about what I expected,” Dagher said. “But he didn’t talk at all about what’s happening in Gaza. He didn’t even mention it, and I had hoped he would talk about that. He didn’t cover other world events, either. It was basically a campaign stump speech.”

    Dozens of pro-Palestinian demonstrators marched outside the convention center ahead of Biden’s speech, labeling the president “Genocide Joe” and demanding an end to all U.S. aid to Israel. Biden has backed Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza, but has withheld 3,500 bombs from Israel as it pursues a military operation in Rifah, the last Hamas stronghold.

    During his remarks at the NAACP dinner, Biden touted his administration’s investments in historically Black colleges, its efforts to remove lead pipes and his nomination of Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first Black woman to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court.

    Biden told the NAACP crowd that because of their votes, he was “standing here as president of the United States.” 

    ‘A different breed of cat’

    Biden also appeared Sunday afternoon at a private campaign gathering of about 50 people inside CRED Cafe, a speakeasy opened last year by former National Basketball Association players and brothers, Joe and Jordan Crawford, in Detroit.

    At the private campaign event, Biden labeled Trump “a different breed of cat,” adding that Trump is “not your typical Republican.”

    “The guy we’re running against wants to back up all of the … progress we’ve made,” the Democratic president told the group.

    Biden said Trump would undo policies he’s implemented to safeguard the environment, but he didn’t specify which ones he was referring to. And the president said Trump would dismantle initiatives that have expanded health insurance coverage and access to college to more African Americans.

    Trump vowed to dismantle the Affordable Care Act but didn’t muster the votes to do so during his administration.

    Biden won Michigan in 2020 51%-48% over Trump and was aided by getting 240,936 votes in Detroit, defeating the Republican in the state’s largest city, 94%-5%. About 78% of Detroit’s population is Black, according to U.S. Census data. Despite there being no proof of systemic voter fraud in Detroit, in the days after the 2020 election, Trump labeled Detroit “totally corrupt” and said there had been an improper dump of votes there. But judges, canvassers and audits upheld the results of the election.

    Some Democrats are concerned that voters in Detroit won’t turn out for Biden the same way this fall in a rematch with Trump, potentially providing a path for the Republican to flip Michigan.

    In interview ahead of Biden’s speech at the NAACP dinner in Detroit Sunday night, U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Holly, said there was initially “dampened enthusiasm” for a rematch between Biden and Trump. But Slotkin, who’s running for the U.S. Senate, said she sees growing excitement in the city.

    “The people that I talk to just are really wary of Trump,” Slotkin said. “We know what that’s like, and they don’t feel like they want to let us slip back into that.”

    Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan told the crowd at the dinner that Biden had been a friend to the city throughout its recovery, pushing to financially rescue the auto industry while vice president, and had “been with us in our darkest hour.”

    “Let him know Detroit never forgets,” Duggan told the crowd inside Huntington Place.

    After the speech, state Rep Tyrone Carter, D-Detroit, said Biden hit on “all the key points.”

    “Democrats have been horrible at messaging and of reminding people the differences between him and his opponent, including supporting unions versus being anti-union,” Carter said. “A lot of bad things are going happen to the middle class if his opponent wins.”

    Sunday’s visit marked Biden’s third campaign stop in Michigan of 2024. He met with supporters in Saginaw County in March, and he spoke at a United Auto Workers hall in Macomb County in February.

    During his campaign stop in Detroit on Sunday afternoon, the incumbent president said he had told a group of reverends to “pray like hell for me.” There’s a “long way to go” in the election,” he said.

    “But we’re feeling real good because of folks like you,” Biden said. “We’re working real hard.”

    cmauger@detroitnews.com

    U.S. and Europe Move Closer to Using Russian Assets to Help Ukraine

    Peter Watson
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    U.S. and Europe Move Closer to Using Russian Assets to Help Ukraine

    The United States and Europe are coalescing around a plan to use interest earned on frozen Russian central bank assets to provide Ukraine with a loan to be used for military and economic assistance, potentially providing the country with a multibillion-dollar lifeline as Russia’s war effort intensifies.

    Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said in an interview on Sunday that several options for using $300 billion in immobilized Russian assets remained on the table. But she said the most promising idea was for Group of 7 nations to issue a loan to Ukraine that would be backed by profits and interest income that is being earned on Russian assets held in Europe.

    Finance ministers from the Group of 7 will be meeting in Italy later this week in hopes of finalizing a plan that they can deliver to heads of state ahead of the group’s leaders meeting next month. The urgency to find a way to deliver more financial support to Ukraine has been mounting as the country’s efforts to fend off Russia have shown signs of faltering.

    “I think we see considerable interest among all of our partners in a loan structure that would bring forward the stream of windfall profits,” Ms. Yellen said during her flight to Germany, where she is holding meetings ahead of the Group of 7 summit. “It would generate a significant up-front amount that would help meet needs we anticipate Ukraine is going to have both militarily and through reconstruction.”

    For months, Western allies have been debating how far to go in using the Russian central bank assets. The United States believes that it would be legal under international law to confiscate the money and give it to Ukraine, but several European countries, including France and Germany, have been wary about the lawfulness of such a move and the precedent that it would set.

    Although the United States recently passed legislation that would give the Biden administration the authority to seize and confiscate Russian assets, the desire to act in unison with Europe has largely sidelined that idea.

    This month, European Union nations agreed in principle that they would be willing to use 90 percent of the profits to buy arms for Ukraine through the European Peace Facility, an E.U. structure to finance military aid and its own military missions. The remaining 10 percent would go to reconstruction and nonlethal purchases, to satisfy countries like Ireland, Austria, Cyprus and Malta, which are militarily neutral.

    About 190 billion euros of Russian central bank assets are held by Belgium’s central securities depository, Euroclear. The assets are generating about €3 billion a year of interest that could be transferred to Ukraine.

    However, using the interest as the basis for a loan could provide Ukraine with a much larger amount of money — potentially as much as $50 billion — up front. The method for delivering the money still needs to be worked out. The World Bank or another international institution could serve as an intermediary.

    It also remains unclear how the loan would be repaid if the war ended before the bond matured or if interest rates fell, making the proceeds on the assets insufficient to repay the loan.

    Such details are expected to be debated among the finance ministers when they gather later this week. They hope to be able to provide Ukraine with additional funds this summer.

    Ms. Yellen said that allocating the money to Ukraine was critical for showing Russia that it could not outlast Western support.

    “I think Russia is playing a waiting game and they’ve had the view that the U.S. and our partners are losing the will to support Ukraine over an extended time,” Ms. Yellen said. “Showing that we do have the means of translating earnings on the frozen assets into a stream of support for Ukraine, I think, is an important way to demonstrate that we’re not about to fold — we’re going to be able to help Ukraine.”

    Remarks by Chair Powell at the Georgetown University Law Center commencement ceremony

    Peter Watson
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    Remarks by Chair Powell at the Georgetown University Law Center commencement ceremony

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    Thank you, Dean Treanor, for the invitation to speak here today. I am very sorry that circumstances prevent me from joining you in person.

    I will start by acknowledging the parents, spouses, partners, other family members and mentors who are here. Without your support, sacrifice, and encouragement, we would not have so much to celebrate today.

    And to the class of 2024—congratulations on earning your law degree. You are the most selective class in Georgetown history, chosen from 14,000 applicants, and the most well qualified as well. Among you are Fulbright scholars, military veterans, Peace Corps, AmeriCorps and Teach for America alumni, student athletes, accomplished musicians and even a medical doctor. An impressive group. This is also the most diverse class in the 154-year history of the school.

    I am especially proud today to say that there is a lot of Georgetown in my family tree. My father graduated from the College in 1943 before serving in the U.S. Army in World War II. After the war, he received his law degree here and practiced law in Washington, D.C. I am fortunate to have two wonderful daughters; one graduated from the College in 2012; the other is a member of the Class of 2026 at the Law Center.

    It seems like yesterday that I was in your shoes, receiving my degree, looking forward with optimism and excitement, and wondering what lay ahead.

    I cannot help but think fondly of my time here. For many years, friends from law school have gathered annually for a weekend to refresh our ties and laugh about times gone by. These gatherings are referred to as “Big Chill,” a reference to a 1983 movie that revolved around a mid-life reunion of college friends. I made lifelong friendships here that I keep to this day, and I hope it will be the same for you.

    Along with all the hard work, I also remember the fun. A favorite tradition was to attend Saturday midnight showings of The Rocky Horror Picture Show at the Key Theater on Wisconsin Avenue in Georgetown.

    Now, if you have led a culturally deprived life and are tragically unfamiliar with the movie, it is a raucous musical starring a young Tim Curry. Everyone in the theater would sing along, shout out the lines, and throw popcorn at the screen; many would dress up like the characters. Now, I didn’t dress up—sorry to disappoint you—but no party was complete until all of us danced “The Time Warp” to the movie’s famous song.

    As it happens, I still remember the steps, and I had intended to demonstrate the Time Warp for you, but that will not be possible today.

    Instead, I will offer a few thoughts that I might have benefited from hearing when I was sitting in your chairs a mere 45 years ago.

    Embracing Change

    The years since my graduation have brought waves of fundamental change to the workplace and to society at large, much of it driven by technology. Imagine a world with no internet, no email or texting, no personal computers or cell phones, no social media. Some of you parents are no doubt thinking: I would be fine with that world!

    The pace of change will likely continue to be very fast. Be alert to the ways your working life may change. Think about how you can be prepared for those changes and to turn them to your advantage, and to society’s advantage. The practice of law has been transformed over the years; if you do choose the path of a practicing lawyer, I would think about what practicing law could look like in 10 or 20 years.

    In a world that will continue to evolve quickly and in unexpected ways, you will need to be agile. Embracing change and taking risks can be an important part of your development as a professional and as a person. Your formal education may end today, but you are not done learning. Many of the important things you will need to know can only be learned through experience. And experience can be a hard but irreplaceable teacher.

    As an example, near the end of my second year here, it was time to select the next editor in chief of the Georgetown Law Journal. I thought that there were plenty of colleagues who were better qualified, but who simply did not want the job. So, with much trepidation, I put my name in. I was secretly, but utterly, terrified that I might be chosen. And amazingly enough, I was. What now?

    It turned out that, as I feared, I was not well prepared for that responsibility. I had to keep people interested and motivated enough to work on the Journal when many things competed for their attention. I had to have a plan for the organization and not just for myself. I had to do this while exhibiting confidence that I did not feel. My main memory of that time is thinking, “This is harder and far different from what I had expected!”

    What I now know is that almost no one is ready for their first leadership roles. When you step into a leadership role, it is very common to doubt yourself. If I could tell my younger self something, it would be to believe in yourself and put yourself in situations in which you will be seriously challenged to do new things. Assume that you will make mistakes. Learn from those mistakes; do not dwell excessively upon them in regret. You will fall down. Get up. Repeat cycle.

    The more you do that, the more you will learn and the faster you will develop as a person and as a leader. Know also that, in my experience, there is no single model of a successful leader. Each of you has it in you to lead successfully.

    No One Path

    One of the great things about your legal education is it sets you up for success on a wide variety of potential paths. I left the practice of law a few years after I left this school. But my legal education has benefited me all along the way. Studying law teaches you to think clearly, analyze thoroughly, and understand all sides of an argument. The possibilities that lie ahead of you are extremely broad. You may work for a single law firm for your entire career. Or you may leave the law fairly soon, as I did, and never look back. You will always benefit from what you learned here.

    The fact is, I do keep a copy of the Federal Reserve Act that I consult often.

    Like many of you, I imagine, I knew that I wanted to do public service. As I left law school, I remember thinking about people like George Shultz and Cyrus Vance, prominent figures of the day who had successful private-sector careers and served periodically in government.

    The head of the investment bank in New York where I worked as a young man was Nicholas F. Brady, who had an extraordinary career in investment banking and had served as a U.S. senator from New Jersey as well. I was the most junior of employees, but I wanted to introduce myself and tell him about my own aspirations. But approaching him was daunting. Maybe he would decline to meet with me. Maybe he would think I was not committed to the firm if I told him I was interested in public service.

    I finally summoned the courage to present myself at his office. I told him that I grew up in Washington, had been a federal law clerk and a congressional staffer, and wanted to do public service along the way. I said that if you need someone to staff you on anything you do in Washington, I’m your guy. He said something along the lines of, “Great, thanks.” I then crept back down the stairs to my broom closet of an office wondering whether that was going to matter.

    A few months later, I got a call from his secretary. I can still hear her gravelly voice. “Can you come up and see Mr. Brady?” When I got there, he said, “I need you to help me out with this thing.” This thing was defending an oil company from a hostile takeover attempt by a colorful corporate raider of that era named T. Boone Pickens. I ended up spending months going back and forth from New York to Washington with Nick. A few years later, Nick Brady became the Treasury Secretary. Nick asked me to join him at Treasury, which opened the door for me to higher levels of public service. The point is this: if I had not forced myself to get up from my desk, taken the stairs up to the 15th floor, and presented myself to his office that day, the rest of my life would have been very different, and I would not be standing here today.

    Mustering that little bit of initiative changed my life. A little initiative can make all the difference in anyone’s career.

    Conclusion

    I will conclude by encouraging you to think beyond yourselves. Each of you has the capability to achieve success in any field you choose; it is important that you also consider how to give back and use your gifts to make a difference. Reflect on the motto of this school: “law is but the means; justice is the end.” Many of you have served at law clinics where you stood up for underrepresented individuals and organizations. And many of you will play important roles in the military, at nonprofits, and in governments around the world.

    Each generation has an obligation to move us closer to the ideal, as embodied by the famous image of blindfolded Lady Justice holding the scales. You should count yourselves among the luckiest in all our society to graduate from this institution, to have the support of loved ones through three grueling years, and the health and other good fortune not to get tripped up along the way. Several years ago, one of my predecessors, Ben Bernanke, said, “Those who are the luckiest . . . also have the greatest responsibility to work hard, to contribute to the betterment of the world, and to share their luck with others.” I cannot improve upon that.

    I thank you for having me. Georgetown will always hold a special place in my heart. Thank you again to Dean Treanor and all the faculty, and the hardiest of congratulations to the Class of 2024.

    Helicopter with Iran president Raisi suffers ‘hard landing,’ state TV says

    Peter Watson
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    Helicopter with Iran president Raisi suffers ‘hard landing,’ state TV says

    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — A helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the country’s foreign minister and other officials apparently crashed in the mountainous northwest reaches of Iran on Sunday, sparking a massive rescue operation in a fog-shrouded forest as the public was urged to pray.

    The likely crash came as Iran under Raisi and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei launched an unprecedented drone-and-missile attack on Israel last month and has enriched uranium closer than ever to weapons-grade levels.

    Iran has also faced years of mass protests against its Shiite theocracy over an ailing economy and women’s rights — making the moment that much more sensitive for Tehran and the future of the country as the Israel-Hamas war inflames the wider Middle East.

    Raisi was traveling in Iran’s East Azerbaijan province. State TV said what it called a “hard landing” happened near Jolfa, a city on the border with the nation of Azerbaijan, some 600 kilometers (375 miles) northwest of the Iranian capital, Tehran. Later, state TV put it farther east near the village of Uzi, but details remained contradictory.

    Traveling with Raisi were Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, the governor of Iran’s East Azerbaijan province and other officials and bodyguards, the state-run IRNA news agency reported. One local government official used the word “crash,” but others referred to either a “hard landing” or an “incident.”

    Neither IRNA nor state TV offered any information on Raisi’s condition in the hours afterward. However, hard-liners urged the public to pray for him. State TV later aired images of the faithful praying at Imam Reza Shrine in the city of Mashhad, one of Shiite Islam’s holiest sites, as well as in Qom and other locations across the country. State television’s main channel aired the prayers nonstop.

    “The esteemed president and company were on their way back aboard some helicopters and one of the helicopters was forced to make a hard landing due to the bad weather and fog,” Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi said in comments aired on state TV. “Various rescue teams are on their way to the region but because of the poor weather and fogginess it might take time for them to reach the helicopter.”

    IRNA called the area a “forest” and the region is known to be mountainous as well. State TV aired images of SUVs racing through a wooded area and said they were being hampered by poor weather conditions, including heavy rain and wind.

    In this photo provided by Islamic Republic News Agency, IRNA, the helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi takes off at the Iranian border with Azerbaijan after President Raisi and his Azeri counterpart Ilham Aliyev inaugurated the dam of Qiz Qalasi, or Castel of Girl in Azeri, Iran, Sunday, May 19, 2024. A helicopter carrying President Raisi suffered a “hard landing” on Sunday, Iranian state media reported, without elaborating. (Ali Hamed Haghdoust/IRNA via AP)

    A rescue helicopter tried to reach the area where authorities believe Raisi’s helicopter was, but it couldn’t land due to heavy mist, emergency services spokesman Babak Yektaparast told IRNA.

    Long after the sun set, Iranian government spokesman Ali Bahadori Jahromi acknowledged that “we are experiencing difficult and complicated conditions” in the search.

    “It is the right of the people and the media to be aware of the latest news about the president’s helicopter accident, but considering the coordinates of the incident site and the weather conditions, there is ‘no’ new news whatsoever until now,” he wrote on the social platform X. “In these moments, patience, prayer and trust in relief groups are the way forward.”

    Khamenei himself also urged the public to pray.

    “We hope that God the Almighty returns the dear president and his colleagues in full health to the arms of the nation,” Khamenei said, drawing an “amen” from the audience he was addressing.

    Raisi, 63, a hard-liner who formerly led the country’s judiciary, is viewed as a protégé of Khamenei and some analysts have suggested he could replace the 85-year-old leader after Khamenei’s death or resignation from the role.

    This is a locator map for Iran with its capital, Tehran. (AP Photo)

    This is a locator map for Iran with its capital, Tehran. (AP Photo)

    Raisi had been on the border with Azerbaijan early Sunday to inaugurate a dam with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev. The dam is the third one that the two nations built on the Aras River. The visit came despite chilly relations between the two nations, including over a gun attack on Azerbaijan’s Embassy in Tehran in 2023, and Azerbaijan’s diplomatic relations with Israel, which Iran’s Shiite theocracy views as its main enemy in the region.

    Iran flies a variety of helicopters in the country, but international sanctions make it difficult to obtain parts for them. Its military air fleet also largely dates back to before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. IRNA published images it described as Raisi taking off in what resembled a Bell helicopter, with a blue-and-white paint scheme previously seen in published photographs.

    Raisi won Iran’s 2021 presidential election, a vote that saw the lowest turnout in the Islamic Republic’s history. Raisi is sanctioned by the U.S. in part over his involvement in the mass execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988 at the end of the bloody Iran-Iraq war.

    Under Raisi, Iran now enriches uranium at nearly weapons-grade levels and hampers international inspections. Iran has armed Russia in its war on Ukraine, as well as launched a massive drone-and-missile attack on Israel amid its war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. It also has continued arming proxy groups in the Mideast, like Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

    Meanwhile, mass protests in the country have raged for years. The most recent involved the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, a woman who had been earlier detained over allegedly not wearing a hijab, or headscarf, to the liking of authorities. The monthslong security crackdown that followed the demonstrations killed more than 500 people and saw over 22,000 detained.

    In March, a United Nations investigative panel found that Iran was responsible for the “physical violence” that led to Amini’s death.

    President Joe Biden was briefed by aides on the Iran crash, but administration officials have not learned much more than what is being reported publicly by Iran state media, said a senior administration official, who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

    ___

    Associated Press writers Nasser Karimi in Tehran, Iran, and Aamer Madhani in Washington contributed to this report.

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