4 Mins Ago
UK retail sales resilient in August
People pass shops and retailers as they walk along the busy high street at St Ives on August 21, 2023 in Cornwall, England.
Matt Cardy | Getty Images News | Getty Images
U.K. retail sales were higher in August, figures from the British Retail Consortium showed on Tuesday, as consumer confidence improved.
Total retail sales were up by 4.1% in the four weeks to Aug. 26, ahead of the three-month average growth of 3.6% and compared to 1% growth in August 2022. The survey notes it does not adjust figures for inflation, meaning overall sales volumes may have been lower.
U.K. headline consumer price inflation was 6.8% in July.
“The sales figures reflected the improvement in consumer confidence in August, and retailers hope this general upwards trend will carry on,” said Helen Dickinson, CEO of the British Retail Consortium.
“Easing inflation will certainly be welcomed by consumers, but as the rate of price rises falls, so will the extra spending needed by consumers. As a result, sales growth may fall in the coming months, even if volume growth does not.”
— Jenni Reid
An Hour Ago
German companies’ inflation expectations dip
German businesses reported slightly lower price expectations in August, according to a survey from the ifo institute.
Timo Wollmershäuser, head of forecasts at ifo, said there was only a slight change in high inflation expectations within the hospitality sector, the food and beverage industry and among retailers.
“In contrast, the price increase in manufacturing seems to have almost stopped,” Wollmershäuser said on Tuesday, with a survey reading of 3.7 versus 33.5 in retail and 55.1 in food and beverage trade.
The survey found “opposing developments” in manufacturing, with automakers still planning to raise prices, while paper producers intend to cut them.
Consumer price inflation in Germany dipped slightly to 6.4% in August on an EU-harmonized basis, according to preliminary figures. July producer prices decreased for the first time in two-and-a-half years, falling by 6% year-on-year as energy prices plunged 19.3%.
— Jenni Reid
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CNBC Pro: UBS downgrades 2 large global automakers over ‘highly competitive’ Chinese EVs threat
UBS has downgraded two large global automakers over mounting competition from Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers.
The investment bank also cut price targets as it sees mass market car makers lose market share to Chinese firms such as Warren Buffett-backed BYD.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.
— Ganesh Rao
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UBS expects ‘clear signs of slowing’ for U.S. economy by November’s FOMC meeting
UBS is sticking by its view of a “softish” landing for the U.S. economy, saying inflation is moving closer to the Federal Reserve’s target without a recession this year.
“August was a tough month for investors,” said Mark Haefele, global wealth management chief investment officer at UBS, noting that the S&P 500 ended last month down 1.6%. “Contradictory evidence and conflicting interpretations of economic data, asset pricing, and the outlook for Fed policy have buffeted asset prices in recent weeks as expectations of a soft landing for the US economy have ebbed and flowed.”
Some remaining uncertainties could still keep market on edge, Haefele said in the Monday note. Last month’s increase in core PCE came out well above the Fed’s target, which could sustain the possibility of another rate hike, the analyst said. UBS is also watching for a potential rebound in savings rates and further cooling in the labor market.
“Our base case view is that by the November FOMC meeting, the economy will have shown clear signs of slowing, leading the Fed to finally put an end to its sharpest rate hike cycle since the 1980s. We expect US Treasury yields to fall by year-end as both US economic growth and inflation moderate,” Haefele wrote.
— Pia Singh
7 Hours Ago
CNBC Pro: Here’s where to invest $50,000 right now, according to the pros
Markets now look pretty different from just a few months ago when stocks were rallying.
If you had $50,000 to invest, where should you put it and how much should you allocate to each asset class? CNBC Pro spoke to portfolio managers and other investors to find out.
We also got back to those who told CNBC Pro how they would allocate $50,000 in June to ask what — if anything — they would change.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.
— Weizhen Tan
3 Hours Ago
European markets: Here are the opening calls
European markets are expected to open lower Tuesday.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 17 points lower at 7,433, Germany’s DAX 27 points lower at 15,778, France’s CAC 10 points lower at 7,263 and Italy’s FTSE MIB down 95 points at 28,568, according to data from IG.
Data releases Tuesday include final purchasing manager’s index (PMI) data, measuring business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, from the euro zone and U.K. for August.
— Holly Ellyatt
