Transit officials on Monday released an analysis of six options to boost the rail system’s capacity in the coming decades, ranging from doing nothing to spending $50 billion to upgrade the Blue, Orange and Silver lines.
The expansion proposals come as Metro will face a $750 million operating deficit in the next fiscal year because of ridership losses to telework and a nearly maxed-out construction funding stream that is paying back bonds Metro has used to repair and modernize the rail system. Transit officials acknowledge the capacity problems Metro was facing in 2019 are not currently straining the system, after the pandemic cut ridership in half. But they say growth is continuing, particularly near certain Northern Virginia stations, while emergencies or maintenance needs often create slowdowns in the bottleneck around the Potomac River tunnel.
Solving the corridor’s limitations could take 10 to 20 years to build, transit leaders say, and the complexity of any expansion plan would require years of planning and coordination between local jurisdictions and the federal government. It would be decades before any extension would open to riders.
Metro officials acknowledge it’s an uncomfortable time to bring up such an expensive proposal at a time when Metro hasn’t found a solution to its looming deficit and dwindling construction money. Transit leaders said Metro doesn’t have a good projection for 2040 ridership, but they said that Metro’s operational problems and the residential growth occurring along the corridor will remain.
Metro says jurisdictions along the lengthy corridor served by the Orange, Silver and Blue lines are expected to add 37 percent more people and 30 percent more jobs by 2040.
The six options before Metro leaders vary greatly in size and scope.
The first proposes no expansion of Metrorail, leaving the corridor as-is with transportation needs being left to bus rapid transit lines and Maryland’s light-rail Purple Line system.
The second option proposes enhanced Metrobus and bus rapid transit service, and rail scheduling that shifts to handle crowding with capacity increases coming from possible rail car design changes and expanded stations. Metro estimates this option would cost $3 to $5 billion, then $75 to $100 million annually to operate.
A third option proposes realigning the Blue Line from the Arlington Cemetery station to an additional new Rosslyn station. It would then run through a new tunnel beneath the river, stopping along M Street in Georgetown before connecting to Union Station, then northeast to areas such as Ivy City in the District and Hyattsville. The line would end at Greenbelt.
Another option proposes the same Blue Line realignment, but tracks would shift south from Union Station and connect to the D.C. waterfront and Navy Yard, serving areas such as Buzzard Point, St. Elizabeths and National Harbor. The line would cross the Woodrow Wilson Bridge to Alexandria.
A fifth proposal would create a separate tunnel and tracks for the Silver Line starting at West Falls Church. From that station, the line would connect to a second Rosslyn station before serving Georgetown, Union Station, Ivy City, Hyattsville, College Park and Greenbelt. The line and new tunnel would be able to operate “express service” — something passengers have wanted for lengthy, time-consuming Silver Line trips.
The last option, transit officials said, proposes to break off the Silver Line from the Orange Line at Clarendon and connect it to a second Rosslyn station, Georgetown and Union Station before shifting northeast to Ivy City and New Carrollton in Maryland.
Metro planners said two options best meet the transit agency’s goals and needs: The Blue Line realignment to National Harbor and the plan that would put the Silver Line on separate tracks and shift it northeast from West Falls Church to Greenbelt.
Board members will discuss the options Thursday at a board meeting, where they will be given a full presentation of the analysis. No vote will be held.
