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    ‘We’ll See You at Your House’: How Fear and Menace Are Transforming Politics

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    One Friday last month, Jamie Raskin, a Democratic congressman from Maryland, spent a chunk of his day in court securing a protective order.

    It was not his first. Mr. Raskin, who played a leading role in Donald J. Trump’s second impeachment hearing, said he received about 50 menacing calls, emails and letters every month that are turned over to the Capitol Police.

    His latest court visit was prompted by a man who showed up at his house and screamed in his face about the Covid-19 vaccine, Mr. Trump’s impeachment and gender-related surgeries. Nearly two years earlier, the same man, with his 3-year-old son in his arms, had yelled profanities at Mr. Raskin at a July 4 parade, according to a police report.

    “I told the judge I don’t care about him getting jail time. He just needs some parenting lessons,” Mr. Raskin said.

    Mr. Raskin was far from the only government official staring down the uglier side of public service in America in recent weeks. Since late March, bomb threats closed libraries in Durham, N.C.; Reading, Mass.; and Lancaster, Pa., and suspended operations at a courthouse in Franklin County, Pa. In Bakersfield, Calif., an activist protesting the war in Gaza was arrested after telling City Council members: “We’ll see you at your house. We’ll murder you.”

    A Florida man was sentenced to 14 months in prison for leaving a voice mail message promising to “come kill” Chief Justice John Roberts.

    And Mr. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, refused to rule out violence if he were to lose in November. “It always depends on the fairness of the election,” he said in an interview late last month.

    This was just a typical month in American public life, where a steady undercurrent of violence and physical risk has become a new normal. From City Hall to Congress, public officials increasingly describe threats and harassment as a routine part of their jobs. Often masked by online anonymity and propelled by extreme political views, the barrage of menace has changed how public officials do their work, terrified their families and driven some from public life altogether.

    By almost all measures, the evidence of the trend is striking. Last year, more than 450 federal judges were targeted with threats, a roughly 150 percent increase from 2019, according to the United States Marshals Service. The U.S. Capitol Police investigated more than 8,000 threats to members of Congress last year, up more than 50 percent from 2018. The agency recently added three full-time prosecutors to handle the volume.

    More than 80 percent of local officials said they had been threatened or harassed, according to a survey conducted in 2021 by the National League of Cities.

    “People are threatening not just the prosecutor, the special counsel, the judge but also family members,” said Ronald L. Davis, director of the U.S. Marshals Service. Lisa Monaco, the deputy attorney general, said she saw “an environment where disagreement is increasingly tipping over” into “violent threats.”

    It is still rare for those threats to tip into action, experts said, but such instances have increased. Some capture national attention for weeks. The mass shootings at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh in 2018 and the Tops Friendly supermarket in Buffalo in 2022 were both carried out by perpetrators who expressed extreme right-wing views. Trump supporters’ riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, was one of the largest acts of political violence in modern American history.

    Surveys have found increasing public support for politicized violence among both Republicans and Democrats in recent years. A study released last fall by the University of California, Davis, found that nearly one in three respondents considered violence justified to advance some political objectives, including “to stop an election from being stolen.”

    “Although actual acts of political violence in America are still quite low compared to some other countries, we’re now in a position where there has been enough violence that the threats are credible,” said Rachel Kleinfeld, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who studies political violence.

    Violence — and the threat of it — has been a part of American politics since the nation’s founding. But experts describe this moment as particularly volatile, thanks in great part to social media platforms that can amplify anonymous outrage, spread misinformation and conspiracy theories and turn a little-known public employee into a target.

    No politician has harnessed the ferocious power of those platforms like Mr. Trump. The former president has long used personal attacks as a strategy to intimidate his adversaries. As he campaigns to return to the White House, he has turned that tactic on the judges and prosecutors involved in his various legal cases, all of whom have subsequently been threatened.

    Democrats by and large have been the loudest voices in trying to quell political violence, although many on the right have accused them of insufficiently condemning unruly left-wing protesters on college campuses and at the homes of Supreme Court justices. After Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York, warned in 2020 that Supreme Court justices would “pay the price” if they eliminated federal abortion rights, Chief Justice Roberts called the statement “dangerous.”

    Researchers say the climate of intimidation is thriving on political division and distrust, and feeding off other social ills — including mental illness, addiction and prejudice. Women are more commonly threatened than men, as are people of color, according to a survey of local officials conducted by CivicPulse and Princeton University’s Bridging Divides Initiative.

    There is little research on the political views of those behind the onslaught of abuse. Some surveys show that Republican officeholders are more likely to report being targeted, often from members of their own party. Research does show, however, that recent acts of political violence are more likely to be carried out by perpetrators aligned with right-wing causes and beliefs.

    Public officials at all levels are changing how they do their jobs in response. Many report feeling less willing to run again or seek higher office, and some are reluctant to take on controversial issues. Turnover among election workers has spiked since 2020; even librarians describe feeling vulnerable.

    “These attacks are not coming from people who are looking for solutions,” said Clarence Anthony, the executive director of the National League of Cities. “They’re looking for confrontation.”

    Joe Chimenti started getting death threats about a year after he took office as chairman of the board of supervisors in Shasta County, Calif., in 2019. The normally sleepy county in Northern California had been thrown into tumult by a wave of anti-government sentiment that started with the coronavirus pandemic. It grew worse after Mr. Trump falsely claimed that the 2020 election had been stolen.

    Tired of violent threats and constant disruptions at meetings, Mr. Chimenti, a Republican, decided not to run for a second term. Elected in his place was a man who had repeated conspiracy theories about voting machines and who tried to hire a county executive who had called on Shasta County to secede from California.

    Mr. Chimenti said he’d had enough of the abuse. “I got into this to make a difference, but I thought, Why do I want to put up with this?”

    Fred Upton, who served as a Republican representative from Michigan for 36 years, was used to taking heat from the public. But he had never experienced anything like the backlash from his decision to vote to impeach Mr. Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack.

    He received so many threats that he asked the local police to set up motion-activated cameras outside his home in Michigan. He installed panic buttons in his district offices and stopped notifying the public in advance of his speaking engagements. He also added a second exit door to his House office in Washington in case he or his staff needed to escape from an intruder.

    After he voted in favor of President Biden’s infrastructure bill in late 2021, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a fellow Republican, called him a traitor and posted his office number on her social media accounts.

    “I hope you die,” one caller said in a voice mail message he received soon after. “I hope everybody in your [expletive] family dies.”

    When Mr. Upton left office after his district was redrawn, he assumed the threats would stop. But he continues to receive menacing calls and letters at his home in Western Michigan.

    “I just don’t answer my phone anymore, ever,” he said.

    Political violence in American is not new. Left-wing activists set off bombs in the Capitol in 1983 and in 1971; five lawmakers were shot by Puerto Rican nationalists in the House chamber in 1954; a pro-German professor planted a bomb in a Senate reception room in 1915. Four presidents have been assassinated.

    For decades after the Civil War, it was common for white Southerners to threaten Republican lawmakers, said Kate Masur, a professor of history at Northwestern University. “It’s hard for us to imagine how violent the United States was in the 19th century.”

    But researchers view the internet as a new accelerant. Nearly three-quarters of all threats are not made in person, according to a recent Princeton analysis, making it difficult for law enforcement to identify the source.

    Technology has facilitated other forms of often-anonymous harassment as well. “Swatting” — making hoax 911 calls designed to set off a police response to a target’s home — has become more common, with a spate of recent incidents involving lawmakers, mayors, judges and the special counsel investigating Mr. Trump. In January, Jay Ashcroft, the Republican secretary of state in Missouri, was ordered from his house at gunpoint by armed officers responding to a bogus call that there had been a shooting at his home. No one has been charged in the event.

    “Doxxing,” or publishing personal information online — thus giving people an opportunity to harass or threaten — has been used against a wide range of public officials and even jurors in the Trump cases.

    For federal lawmakers, the prospect of physical harm has long been part of the job — one that was painfully illustrated by the shooting in 2011 that gravely wounded Gabby Giffords, then an Arizona congresswoman, and by the assault on the Republican congressional baseball team in 2017 by a gunman upset by Mr. Trump’s election. On Friday, the man who had broken into the home of Nancy Pelosi, the former House speaker, and bludgeoned her husband with a hammer was sentenced to 30 years in prison.

    Many public officials say they have become accustomed to managing their fears and insist they are not affected. But there is evidence that the threats and intimidation can influence decisions.

    Senator Mitt Romney, a Republican from Utah who is retiring at the end of this year, told a biographer that some G.O.P. lawmakers voted not to impeach and convict Mr. Trump after the Jan. 6 attack because they were afraid for their safety if they crossed his supporters. Mr. Romney did not identify the legislators by name and declined an interview for this article.

    Andrew Hitt, the former head of the Republican Party in Wisconsin, agreed to go along with the Trump campaign’s failed scheme to overturn the 2020 election because he was “scared to death,” he told “60 Minutes.”

    “It was not a safe time,” he said.

    Four days after Mr. Trump was indicted in August in a federal election interference case, the presiding judge, Tanya S. Chutkan, received an alarming voice mail message at her chambers.

    “If Trump doesn’t get elected in 2024, we are coming to kill you,” the caller said, according to court documents.

    Investigators tracked the message to Abigail Jo Shry, a 43-year-old Texas woman who was already facing state charges related to similar threats against two Texas state senators, a Democrat and a Republican.

    Ms. Shry has a history of drug and alcohol abuse and “gets all her information from the internet,” her father testified. “You can get anything you want to off the internet. And, you know, it will work you up.” (Ms. Shry’s lawyer declined to comment.)

    Mr. Trump has been relentless in attacking the judges overseeing the criminal and civil cases that have confronted him of late. Last month, he asked, “Who is the WORST, most EVIL and most CORRUPT JUDGE?” in a social media post that named the judges.

    They are being inundated. At least three of them, including Judge Chutkan, have been swatted. In February, a woman was sentenced to three years in prison for threatening Judge Aileen Cannon, who is overseeing the federal criminal case against Mr. Trump involving mishandling classified documents.

    Last month, a resident of Lancaster, N.Y., pleaded guilty to making death threats against Judge Arthur F. Engoron, who presided over a civil fraud trial against Mr. Trump in Manhattan this year, as well as threats against Letitia James, the New York attorney general, who brought the case.

    The judges have been clear that Mr. Trump’s posts make an impact. “When defendant has publicly attacked individuals, including on matters related to this case, those individuals are consequently threatened and harassed,” Judge Chutkan wrote in a gag order trying to limit Mr. Trump’s public remarks.

    The prospect of being a target for abuse has already deterred some from participating in cases involving Mr. Trump. During a February court hearing in Atlanta, former Gov. Roy Barnes of Georgia, a Democrat, said that Fani T. Willis, the district attorney of Fulton County, had asked him to lead the prosecution of Mr. Trump for election interference in Georgia.

    Mr. Barnes declined, explaining: “I wasn’t going to live with bodyguards for the rest of my life.”

    Ms. Willis has left her home amid threats, and the county pays about $4,000 a month for her new housing. Her staff was outfitted with bulletproof vests. This month, a Californian was indicted after threatening in the comment section of a YouTube video to kill her “like a dog.”

    Local officials are feeling the pressure.

    Election officials — from secretaries of state to poll workers — have faced hostility and abuse after Mr. Trump’s false claims of fraud in the 2020 election, leading to resignations and difficulty recruiting and retaining staff members and volunteers. Such threats “endanger our democracy itself,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said this week.

    Local libraries have also become targets amid a heated campaign to ban books and cancel events aimed at members of the L.G.B.T.Q. community. Bomb threats were reported by 32 of the American Library Association’s member institutions last year, compared with two the year before and none in 2021.

    Carolyn Foote, a retired librarian in Austin, Texas, who co-founded a group that supports librarians, said her members had become used to being called “pedophile, groomer, pornographer.”

    Proving that ugly and hostile language has crossed the line from First Amendment-protected speech to credible threat can be difficult. Experts say prosecutions became even harder last year after the Supreme Court raised the bar for what qualifies as a credible threat, ruling that the person making the threat has to “have some subjective understanding of the threatening nature of his statements.”

    In Bakersfield, Calif., a lawyer for Riddhi Patel, the activist who spoke of murdering City Council members after urging them to take up a Gaza cease-fire resolution, said her statement was not a crime. She has pleaded not guilty to 21 felony charges.

    “It’s clear that this was not a true criminal threat, which under California law must be, among other things, credible, specific, immediate and unconditional,” said Peter Kang, the public defender of Kern County, which includes Bakersfield. “Instead, what we hear are Ms. Patel’s strong, passionate expressions, which fall within the bounds of constitutionally protected speech.”

    Local officials say they have become accustomed to dealing with vitriol and anger that they can do little about. In Nevada County, Calif., Natalie Adona, the county clerk and recorder, said employees received a barrage of threats in 2020 from people who did not accept the election results, and again in 2022 over a mask mandate.

    Ms. Adona said the county secured a restraining order against one of three people who forced their way into the building. But her staff has had to learn to endure and defuse confrontations.

    “A lot of what we have experienced falls into this gray area,” Ms. Adona said. “It makes you look over your shoulder.”

    Kitty Bennett contributed research

    Nvidia earnings could spark $200 billion swing in shares, options show

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    NEW YORK (Reuters) – Traders are pricing in a big move for Nvidia’s shares after the chipmaker reports earnings on Wednesday, though expectations for volatility are more muted than in the past, U.S. options markets show.

    Nvidia’s options are primed for an 8.7% swing in either direction by Friday, according to data from options analytics firm Trade Alert. That would translate to a market cap swing of $200 billion – larger than the market capitalization for about 90% of S&P 500 companies.

    While massive by most measures, that implied move would fall far short of the 16.4% jump Nvidia’s shares notched after the company’s most recent quarterly earnings report. It is also less aggressive than the average 12% move traders had priced for the last eight quarters.

    “Volatility and expectations had been a fair amount higher the last time around,” said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivative strategy at Susquehanna Financial Group.

    Nvidia, up about 87% this year, is seen as a bellwether of the burgeoning AI industry and has a market value of about $2.3 trillion, making it the third-largest company on Wall Street, behind Microsoft and Apple. Wall Street is betting on a blowout quarterly report from Nvidia.

    Investor interest has spread out to other beneficiaries of the AI theme in recent months.

    “AI benefits are broadening out to power, commodities and utilities,” BofA strategists including Gonzalo Asis wrote in a note on Monday. “It’s not just about NVDA anymore.”

    BofA’s strategists expect the company to drive 9% of the S&P 500 earnings growth over the next 12 months, compared to 37% over the last 12 months.

    That’s not to say the upcoming earnings report is expected to be uneventful for the company’s share price.

    Matt Amberson, founder of options analytics service ORATS, noted that implied volatility for out of the money calls is roughly equal to that of out of the money puts. That suggests options traders are not writing off the possibility of more upside for the stock, despite its already-hefty year-to-date gains.

    “Traders expect up moves to be as violent as down moves,” Amberson said.

    Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, left, with Dell CEO Michael Dell. (Bloomberg)

    Nvidia is expected to post earnings of $5.59 a share, and a rise in quarterly revenue to $24.65 billion from $7.19 billion a year ago, according to LSEG data.

    Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said a downturn in Nvidia could test investors’ resolve regarding the broader AI trade.

    “Yes, the rally has broadened out, but I’m not sure how sturdy it would be if Nvidia sold off hard,” he said.

    “There is a lot riding on the AI trade,” Sosnick said.

    (Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Lincoln Feast.)

    Biden’s political operation raises $51 million in April, a significant decline from March, but touts $192 million war chest

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    Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images

    President Joe Biden speaks at the NAACP Detroit Branch annual “Fight for Freedom Fund Dinner” in Detroit, Michigan, on May 19, 2024.



    CNN
     — 

    President Joe Biden’s political operation raised $51 million in April — a significant decline from its March fundraising, according to totals released by his campaign Monday.

    Biden’s campaign and affiliated committee still ended the month with $192 million in the bank, according to his aides — a war chest they described as the highest cash-on-hand figure for any Democratic candidate in history and one they say positions the president to compete effectively with former President Donald Trump.

    Trump’s aides announced earlier this month that he had raised more than $76 million for his campaign and allied committees in April, after the GOP’s presumptive nominee ramped up his joint fundraising operation with the Republican National Committee and headlined high-dollar fundraisers, even as he spends parts of his week on trial in a Manhattan criminal court.

    Biden’s political operation had announced raising more than $90 million in March, bookended by a fiery State of the Union speech at the start of the month and a high-profile fundraiser in New York at the month’s end that featured him with two of his predecessors, former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.

    Fundraising has been one of the bright spots for Biden’s campaign as he battles persistently low poll numbers and close contests in key battleground states, and the slowdown is sure to cause consternation among Democrats. But Trump’s filings also highlight potential trouble spots for his campaign: His operation continues to spend heavily on helping the former president confront his legal troubles and relatively modestly on the day-to-day business of campaigning.

    On Monday, Biden’s aides took pains to try to cast the slower fundraising pace in a better light, pointing to what they said were signs of enduring small-dollar support and organizational strength.

    In a statement, Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said the April haul reflected “strong consistent grassroots enthusiasm for reelecting” Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. She said Trump’s campaign “continues to burn through cash” and has “no ground game.”

    Biden’s campaign said April was the strongest month for recurring donors so far, with those contributors giving more than $5.5 million. They also said the campaign added a million more supporters to its email lists last month.

    The Biden team said it has used its money to build a ground operation with more than 150 offices and more than 500 staffers across key battleground states.

    Monday is the deadline for presidential campaigns and the national political parties to file monthly reports on fundraising and spending with federal election regulators.

    Trump’s campaign aides have not released cash-on-hand totals for all the committees affiliated with his election effort, but Trump’s campaign report, filed Monday night, shows it ended April with $49.1 million remaining in the bank, only modestly better than the $45.1 million the campaign had in its war chest at the end of March.

    Trump’s legal troubles continue to drain on his resources and time.

    New filings show that Trump’s leadership PAC, Save America, spent $3.3 million on legal fees in April and ended the month with about $1.1 million in outstanding legal bills.


    The PAC has spent about $15.6 million on legal fees this year alone, and nearly $80 million on those expenses since the start of 2021. The biggest payments in April – more than $900,000 – went to Robert & Robert, the firm that represented Trump and his family in the business fraud case brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James.

    It was followed by more than $850,000 paid last month to the firm of Todd Blanche, the lead attorney handling Trump’s criminal hush money trial in New York. The PAC ended the month still owing another $837,000 to Blanche’s firm.

    To help pay the legal bills, Save America has taken back money it once donated before Trump was a candidate to a Trump-aligned super PAC, called MAGA Inc.

    In April, MAGA Inc. refunded another $2.75 million to Save America, once again diverting funds that could be used to help boost Trump candidacy to underwrite lawyers’ fees.

    Save America now is one of the beneficiaries of a joint fundraising committee that Trump has with the Republican National Committee and state parties that raises funds from high-dollar contributors.

    Both presidential candidates have been hitting the money-raising circuit in recent weeks. Biden is slated to appear at a Los Angeles fundraiser next month with Obama and actors George Clooney and Julia Roberts.

    Monday’s filings also highlighted how a handful of wealthy people are providing the financial support to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s longshot independent bid for the White House.

    American Values 2024, a pro-Kennedy super PAC, took in $5 million last month – or more than 80% of all the funds it raised in the period – from Timothy Mellon, heir to a historic banking fortune and a major supporter of Trump and other GOP candidates and causes.

    With his latest donation, Mellon has given the pro-Kennedy group a total of $25 million to date – prompting criticism from Democrats concerned about Kennedy’s potential role as a spoiler in the close contest between Biden and Trump.

    Kennedy’s campaign, meanwhile, raised about $10.7 million in April – most of which came in the form of an $8 million contribution from his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, a wealthy Silicon Valley patent attorney.

    This story and headline have been updated with additional information.

    Red Lobster, an American Seafood Institution, Files for Bankruptcy

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    Versatile and resilient, the lobster survives by molting, shedding its skin and growing into a new, bigger shell. But eventually, energy runs low and the transformation becomes more difficult.

    Red Lobster, one of America’s best-known shellfish ambassadors, has reached this stage in its life cycle: The once-ubiquitous restaurant chain filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Sunday after more than half a century as the country’s pre-eminent seafood franchise.

    In court filings, the company said it had more than 100,000 creditors and liabilities of $1 billion to $10 billion. Red Lobster said it planned to reduce its locations as it prepared to to sell most of its assets. In the meantime, surviving Red Lobster restaurants will remain open.

    It has been a painful, slow end for Red Lobster, whose death throes were telegraphed earlier this year when the company reportedly sought to restructure its debt. After decades as a General Mills subsidiary, Red Lobster was purchased by a private equity firm in 2014, and bolstered by a 2020 investment from a Thai seafood conglomerate. But it faced challenges in the years since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, when industry headwinds, rising costs and changes in dining habits forced the company to close underperforming locations.

    The Thai seafood company, Thai Union Group, announced in January that it was abandoning its Red Lobster investment. Last week, dozens of Red Lobster locations began selling off assets through a liquidator, offering up the spoils of a crumbling restaurant dynasty like industrial freezers, lobster tanks and bar equipment (alcohol not included).

    In its heyday, Red Lobster had obtained coveted status among suburban dining options: affordable enough to be accessible, fancy enough to be aspirational. Despite its founding in Orlando, Fla., the chain drew much of its inspiration from Bar Harbor, a tourist destination off the rocky Atlantic coast of Maine.

    In its 56-year life span, Red Lobster had seen a host of reinventions. Initially billed as an oyster lounge and cocktail bar in the 1960s and ’70s, Red Lobster emerged in later years as a family-friendly dining choice that, for many, was an introduction to seafood.

    It perhaps reached the pinnacle of cultural consciousness with a mention from Beyoncé, who name-dropped the restaurant in her 2016 song “Formation,” and just as swiftly fell from it. Last year, the chain stumbled on an all-you-can-eat shrimp deal that was so popular with diners, it helped push the company to an $11 million quarterly loss.

    “This restructuring is the best path forward for Red Lobster,” Jonathan Tibus, the company’s chief executive, said in a statement on Sunday. “It allows us to address several financial and operational challenges and emerge stronger and refocused on our growth.”

    Red Lobster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    Penguin Random House Dismisses Two of Its Top Publishers

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    In a significant shake up, Penguin Random House, the largest publishing house in the United States, announced on Monday that the publishers of two of its most prestigious literary imprints had been let go.

    The departure of Reagan Arthur, the publisher of Alfred A. Knopf, and Lisa Lucas, the publisher of Pantheon and Schocken, likely came as a surprise to many in the company — including, it seemed, to Lucas.

    Lucas posted on X, formerly called Twitter, that she had learned of her dismissal at 9:30 a.m. on Monday morning. “I have some regrets about spending the weekend working,” she wrote.

    In a memo to employees, Maya Mavjee, the president and publisher of Knopf Doubleday, acknowledged the news would likely be unsettling to many, but noted that restructuring the imprints was “necessary for our future growth.”

    Mavjee said in the memo that Pantheon’s editorial department will now report to Doubleday, while Knopf will be led by Jordan Pavlin, the editor in chief of Knopf, who will become its publisher, taking on two roles. Pavlin has edited best-selling and award-winning authors including Tommy Orange, Yaa Gyasi and Maggie O’Farrell.

    A person in publishing familiar with the decision, and who requested anonymity in order to share details about the restructuring process, said the departures were part of a cost-saving measure. No publisher will replace Lucas at Pantheon, the person said.

    The departure of two prominent publishers comes at a moment when Penguin Random House and other big publishing houses are facing financial challenges, with rising supply chain costs and sluggish print sales. Publishers’ sales were flat in the first quarter of 2024, according to a recent report from the Association of American Publishers.

    The last two years have been an especially turbulent time at Penguin Random House.

    The company has struggled to maintain its dominance in the industry after its bid to buy a rival, Simon & Schuster, was blocked on antitrust grounds, a loss that cost the company a $200 million termination fee. In the aftermath, Markus Dohle, then the chief executive of Penguin Random House, resigned, followed soon after by its U.S. chief executive, Madeline McIntosh.

    Its new chief executive, Nihar Malaviya, has moved to cut costs by downsizing and restructuring, and to grow by acquiring smaller publishing companies. Last year, the company offered voluntary buyouts for longtime employees, and laid off about 60 people.

    Lucas and Arthur were both splashy hires brought to the company in recent years. Lucas, the first Black publisher at Pantheon in its 80-year history, was hired in 2020 from the National Book Foundation, where she was the organization’s executive director. In her time at Penguin Random House, she published titles including “Chain-Gang All Stars,” by Nana Kwame Adjei-Brenyah, which was a National Book Award finalist, and signed a two-book deal with LeVar Burton.

    Arthur, who had been publisher at the imprint Little, Brown, took over as publisher of Knopf in 2020, shortly after the death of Sonny Mehta, who led the imprint for more than three decades. At Knopf, she oversaw the publication of Cormac McCarthy’s final two novels and the enormous best seller “Tomorrow, and Tomorrow, and Tomorrow” by Gabrielle Zevin, and personally edited best sellers including Bono’s memoir, “Surrender,” and “Lessons,” a novel by Ian McEwan.

    “It was an honor to get to finally, briefly work in publishing!!” Lucas wrote on X Monday afternoon. “As for what’s next: Who knows! Free agent! I suppose I’ll think about that tomorrow?”

    Iran helicopter crash: Mohammad Mokhber becomes acting president

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    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and the country’s foreign minister were found dead Monday hours after their helicopter crashed in fog, leaving the Islamic Republic without two key leaders as extraordinary tensions grip the wider Middle East.

    Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say in the Shiite theocracy, quickly named a little-known vice president as caretaker and insisted the government was in control, but the deaths marked yet another blow to a country beset by pressures at home and abroad.

    Iran has offered no cause for the crash nor suggested sabotage brought down the helicopter, which fell in mountainous terrain in a sudden, intense fog.

    In Tehran, Iran’s capital, businesses were open and children attended school Monday. However, there was a noticeable presence of both uniformed and plainclothes security forces.

    Later in the day, hundreds of mourners crowded into downtown Vali-e-Asr square holding posters of Raisi and waving Palestinian flags. Some men clutched prayer beads and were visibly crying. Women wearing black chadors gathered together holding photos of the dead leader.

    In this photo provided by Moj News Agency, rescue teams are seen near the site of the incident of the helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Varzaghan in northwestern Iran, Sunday, May 19, 2024. (Azin Haghighi, Moj News Agency via AP)

    In this photo provided by Islamic Republic News Agency, IRNA, the helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi takes off at the Iranian border with Azerbaijan after President Raisi and his Azeri counterpart Ilham Aliyev inaugurated dam of Qiz Qalasi, or Castel of Girl in Azeri, Iran, Sunday, May 19, 2024. (Ali Hamed Haghdoust/IRNA via AP)

    In this photo provided by Islamic Republic News Agency, IRNA, the helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi takes off at the Iranian border with Azerbaijan after President Raisi and his Azeri counterpart Ilham Aliyev inaugurated dam of Qiz Qalasi, or Castel of Girl in Azeri, Iran, Sunday, May 19, 2024. (Ali Hamed Haghdoust/IRNA via AP)

    “We were shocked that we lost such a character, a character that made Iran proud, and humiliated the enemies,” said Mohammad Beheshti, 36.

    The crash comes as the Israel-Hamas war roils the region. Iran-backed Hamas led the attack that started the conflict, and Hezbollah, also supported by Tehran, has fired rockets at Israel. Last month, Iran launched its own unprecedented drone-and-missile attack on Israel.

    A hard-liner who formerly led the country’s judiciary, Raisi, 63, was viewed as a protege of Khamenei. During his tenure, relations continued to deteriorate with the West as Iran enriched uranium closer than ever to weapons-grade levels and supplied bomb-carrying drones to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

    His government has also faced years of mass protests over the ailing economy and women’s rights — making the moment that much more sensitive.

    The crash killed all eight people aboard a Bell 212 helicopter that Iran purchased in the early 2000s, according to the state-run IRNA news agency. Among the dead were Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, the governor of Iran’s East Azerbaijan province, a senior cleric from Tabriz, a Revolutionary Guard official and three crew members, IRNA said.

    Iran has flown Bell helicopters extensively since the shah’s era. But aircraft in Iran face a shortage of parts because of Western sanctions, and often fly without safety checks. Against that backdrop, former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif sought to blame the United States for the crash.

    “One of the main culprits of yesterday’s tragedy is the United States, which … embargoed the sale of aircraft and aviation parts to Iran and does not allow the people of Iran to enjoy good aviation facilities,” Zarif told The Associated Press.

    Ali Vaez, Iran project director with the International Crisis Group, said that while U.S. sanctions have deprived Iran of the ability to renew and repair its fleet for decades, “one can’t overlook human error and the weather’s role in this particular accident.’’

    Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst and consultant, said Iran likely is tapping the black market for parts to maintain the fleet, but questioned whether Iran has the maintenance skills to keep older helicopters flying safely.

    “Black-market parts and whatever local maintenance capabilities they’ve got — that’s not a good combination,” he said.

    There are 15 Bell 212 helicopters with an average age of 35 years currently registered in Iran that could be in active use or in storage, according to aviation data firm Cirium.

    State TV gave no immediate cause for the crash in Iran’s East Azerbaijan province. Footage released by IRNA showed the crash site, across a steep valley in a green mountain range.

    U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the U.S. continues to monitor the situation surrounding the “very unfortunate helicopter crash” but has no insight into the cause. “I don’t necessarily see any broader regional security impacts at this point in time,” he said.

    White House national security spokesman John Kirby said Monday the death of Raisi and Amirabdollahian is not expected to have any substantive impact on difficult U.S.-Iran relations.

    He added the U.S. expected the change in leadership would not change Iran’s support of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Yemen-based Houthi rebels.

    “We have to assume that the supreme leader is the one who makes these decisions and the supreme leader, as he as he did in the last so-called election, made sure to stack the deck with only candidates that met his mandates,” Kirby said.

    For now, Khamenei has named the first vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, as caretaker, in line with the constitution. The election for a successor was to be held on June 28, IRNA said. Raisi’s funeral was to take place in Mashhad, the city where he was born, on Thursday, with other funerals to be held on Tuesday, state TV said.

    Ali Bagheri Kani, a nuclear negotiator for Iran, will serve as the country’s acting foreign minister, state TV said.

    Condolences poured in from neighbors and allies after Iran confirmed there were no survivors. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a post on the social media platform X that his country “stands with Iran in this time of sorrow.” Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a statement released by the Kremlin, described Raisi “as a true friend of Russia.”

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, China’s Xi Jinping and Syrian President Bashar Assad also offered condolences. Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, said he and his government were “deeply shocked.” Raisi was returning Sunday from Iran’s border with Azerbaijan, where he had inaugurated a dam with Aliyev, when the crash happened.

    The death also stunned Iranians, and Khamenei declared five days of public mourning. But many have been ground down by the collapse of the country’s rial currency and worries about regional conflicts spinning out of control with Israel or even with Pakistan, which Iran exchanged fire with this year.

    “He tried to carry out his duties well, but I don’t think he was as successful as he should have been,” said Mahrooz Mohammadi Zadeh, 53, a resident of Tehran.

    Khamenei stressed the business of Iran’s government would continue no matter what — but Raisi’s death raised the specter of what will happen after the 85-year-old supreme leader either resigns or dies. The final say in all matters of state rests with his office and only two men have held the position since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

    Raisi had been discussed as a contender. The only other person suggested has been Khamenei’s 55-year-old son, Mojtaba. However, concerns have been raised over the position going to a family member, particularly after the revolution overthrew the hereditary Pahlavi monarchy of the shah.

    An emergency meeting of Iran’s Cabinet issued a statement pledging it would follow Raisi’s path and that “with the help of God and the people, there will be no problem with management of the country.”

    Raisi won Iran’s 2021 presidential election, in a vote that saw the lowest turnout in the Islamic Republic’s history. He was sanctioned by the U.S. in part over his involvement in the execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988 at the end of the bloody Iran-Iraq war.

    Under Raisi, Iran now enriches uranium at nearly weapons-grade levels and hampers international inspections. Iran has armed Russia in its war on Ukraine, as well as launched a massive drone-and-missile attack on Israel amid its war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. It also has continued arming proxy groups in the Mideast, like Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

    Mass protests in the country have raged for years. The most recent involved the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, a woman detained over her allegedly loose headscarf, or hijab. The monthslong security crackdown that followed the demonstrations killed more than 500 people and saw over 22,000 detained.

    In March, a United Nations investigative panel found that Iran was responsible for the “physical violence” that led to Amini’s death.

    Raisi is the second Iranian president to die in office. In 1981, a bomb blast killed President Mohammad Ali Rajai in the chaotic days after the country’s Islamic Revolution.

    ___

    Associated Press writers Nasser Karimi in Tehran, Iran, Paul Wiseman and Lolita Baldor in Washington, and AP Airlines Writer David Koenig in Dallas contributed to this report.

    It’s not “Windows 12”: Microsoft keeps Windows 11 branding despite major changes

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    Enlarge / The new Arm-powered Surface Laptop. These Copilot+ PCs are all pictured with a refreshed version of Windows 11’s “Bloom” wallpaper.

    Microsoft

    Microsoft is announcing some fairly major changes for Windows and the Surface lineup as part of its Build developer conference this week, but there’s one thing that’s definitely not coming, at least not right now: a Windows 12 update.

    Speculation about the “Windows 12” update began propagating at some point last year in reports that suggested that Microsoft was shifting back to a three-year release cycle like the ones used for Windows Vista, 7, 8, and 10 in the late 2000s and early 2010s.

    And Microsoft may have intended to call this fall’s release “Windows 12” at some point, and it does come with substantial changes both above and under the hood to better support Arm systems and to emphasize Microsoft’s AI focus.

    “We really focused on modernizing this update of Windows 11,” said Microsoft Corporate Vice President of Windows and Devices Pavan Davuluri at a technical briefing on Microsoft’s campus in mid-April. “We engineered this update of Windows 11 with a real focus on AI inference and taking advantage of the Arm64 instruction set at every layer of the operating system stack. For us, what this meant really was building a new compiler in Windows. We built a new kernel in Windows on top of that compiler. We now have new schedulers in the operating system that take advantage of these new SoC architecture.”

    Microsoft didn’t say whether the updated system components would have user-noticeable benefits for users of current x86 systems, though these updates are likely the reason why the OS has gone from “unsupported” to “unbootable” on some systems with early 64-bit x86 processors.

    Even with these changes, at some point the company made the decision to stay the course with Windows 11’s user interface and branding rather than starting over from scratch and discarding whatever momentum Windows 11 had managed to achieve. By some metrics, Windows 11 usage has continued its slow but steady increase; by others, it has mostly stagnated this year. Leaked internal data suggests that Windows 11 currently has somewhere between 400–500 million active users, a slower pace of adoption than Windows 10 at this point in its lifecycle.

    Whatever Microsoft decides to call it, Windows’ versioning doesn’t have a ton to do with the underpinnings of the operating system. The first release of Windows 11 was essentially Windows 10 with a new user interface on top of it—at one point it was known as “Windows 10X,” and the Windows 11 branding came as a surprise when it was announced three years ago. Plenty of apps and games continue to identify it as a flavor of Windows 10.

    Microsoft did decide to impose stricter system requirements for Windows 11 than for Windows 10, but these are enforced by a handful of easily tweaked registry settings. Once you bypass requirements for Secure Boot or a TPM 2.0 module, early Windows 11 builds will install and run on practically any 64-bit PC that could run Windows 10, highlighting their shared foundation. Even with the newer processor requirement, unsupported installations will continue to work on basically any PC made in the last 12 or 13 years (the official system requirements remain unchanged).

    The Windows 11 24H2 update will hit most Windows 11 PCs when it’s officially released later this fall, though Windows Insiders in the Dev channel can get the work-in-progress version of the update now.

    Drake Bell’s Son Motivated Him to Open Up About Being Sexual Abused

    Drake & Josh star Drake Bell said in a new interview that his three-year-old son helped inspire him to vocalize the alleged sexual abuse he suffered as a child star. Bell has made headlines in recent months as the principal subject of the five-part docuseries Quiet on Set: The Dark Side of Kids TV, where Nickelodeon crew members, child actors, and parents detail a kids network rife with misconduct, discrimination, and abuse. In an interview that aired on Today Monday, he decided to come forward once his mental health took a dive.

    “I had just been going through so much and things were spiraling out of control personally and mentally,” Bell said. “And I finally found myself saying, ‘There’s two roads you can take here.’ I’d just had a son. And what’s the story that he’s going to get? Or is somebody else going to tell him my story, or am I going to be around to tell him and share my story? So I knew something had to change.”

    In Quiet on Set, Bell alleged that former dialogue coach Brian Peck began “sexually assaulting” him at age 15, and described feeling “trapped” as Bell could not drive to and from the Nickelodeon set. Bell, who shares his three-year-old son with ex-wife Janet Von Schmeling, said becoming a father helped drive his decision to come forward.

    “As he grows, he’s going to hear things, and people are going to have opinions,” Bell said. “But my hope is that he’ll be able to say, ‘Yeah, my dad did go through that. Yeah, that did happen to my dad. Yeah, my dad did do that. But the man I’ve known my whole life and the man that I know today is a hero to me. And the fact that he’s been able to get through those things has helped me be able to face the world and not let it tear me down.’”

    In August 2003, Los Angeles police arrested Peck on several charges including lewd acts with a child. By 2004, Peck pleaded no contest to two charges of child sexual abuse, was sentenced to 16 months in jail, and ordered to register as a sex offender. After Bell was identified as the plaintiff in the 2004 case, a Nickelodeon spokesperson previously told Rolling Stone, “We are dismayed and saddened to learn of the trauma he has endured, and we commend and support the strength required to come forward.”

    Following the release of Quiet on Set in March, former Nickelodeon employees have shared nightmarish stories of working on the kids network. On March 18, former Schneider assistant and Jack Ryan producer Amy Berg alleged in an X post that Nickelodeon showrunner Dan Schneider brought on her “panic attacks” and led her to develop a “significant heart arrhythmia,” or irregular heartbeat. And on May 14, Nickelodeon’s All That star Lori Beth Denberg accused Schneider of showing her pornography, lashing out on her, and initiating phone sex during her four seasons on the show. (Schneider filed a defamation lawsuit over the claims made in Quiet on Set May 1.)

    Trending

    Just last month at a Los Angeles Emmys event, Bell said he’s still “reeling from the idea of bearing my soul to the world,” adding that beyond the glamour of Hollywood lies a “dark cesspool of disgusting waste.”

    During his Today interview, Bell said he is ready to see change. “This isn’t me — this is something that happened to me. Me moving forward, the decisions that I made in my past … these were my decisions, I made my mistakes. I did that, but that isn’t my soul,” he said. “That isn’t me — something happened to me. And now I get to see all of that in a clear picture.”

    Daily Taurus Horoscope Today, May 21, 2024: Lifestyle will remain good!

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    New Delhi,UPDATED: May 21, 2024 00:00 IST

    What will your day look like in terms of health, romance, finance and fortune? Read everything here.

    Taurus Money Horoscope Today

    Results will match expectations. Maintain clarity in transactions. There will be an increase in diligence. Increase vigilance in transactions.

    Taurus Career Horoscope Today

    You will strengthen management. There will be progress in work-related matters. Emphasize professionalism. Move forward together with everyone. Efficiency will be enhanced. You will establish positions through hard work and dedication. Business matters will be sorted out. Goals will be achieved. Work will be done on time. Avoid tasks involving risks. Caution will remain.

    Taurus Love Horoscope Today

    You will enhance harmony in relationships. Maintain a sense of cooperation. Pleasant outcomes will be achieved. You will progress naturally in matters of the heart. Increase support for loved ones. Close ones will remain supportive. Memorable moments will be created. Relationships will remain strong. Comfort and happiness will prevail in relationships.

    Taurus Health Horoscope Today

    You will continue necessary efforts. Manage communication well. Your personality will be attractive. Pay attention to health. Past issues may resurface. Lifestyle will remain good.

    Lucky numbers: 3,6,7,9

    Lucky colour: Maroon

    Published On:

    May 21, 2024

    2024 NHL playoff preview: New York Rangers vs. Florida Panthers

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    By Shayna Goldman, Dom Luszczsyszyn and Sean Gentille

    The Presidents’ Trophy-winning New York Rangers finished first in the Metropolitan Divisions, while the Florida Panthers won the Atlantic.

    That makes this upcoming series, which opens Wednesday in New York, a true test of the best in the Eastern Conference.

    New York has already made it further than it did last year. But now comes the challenge of besting their 2022 season, in which they reached the Eastern Conference final after ousting the Hurricanes in Round 2.

    The Panthers know what’s waiting for them if they can muster four more wins: a chance at redemption after last year’s Stanley Cup Final loss.

    So who will become the final Eastern Conference team standing?


    The odds

    A 114-point Rangers team triumphed against an opponent — the Carolina Hurricanes — that always fumbles in the middle of the playoffs, proving they should’ve been more respected by math in the first place. Sorry!

    What did we learn from that experience? Apparently nothing, giving the Rangers a 35 percent chance against the Panthers.

    That has less to do with any hatred toward the Rangers and more to do with their opponents. They would’ve been favored against anyone else in the East — just not Carolina or Florida, two teams the model simply holds in higher esteem.

    We saw how that played out in Round 2, but 35 percent is no guarantee — or an indication of a particularly lopsided series, for that matter. The margins on a game-to-game basis are much slimmer than the series odds may appear: nearly 50-50 odds for the Rangers on home ice, and a bit below 40-60 on the road. In terms of expected goal margin, we’re talking 2.9-3.0 at home and 2.7-3.4 on the road.

    Those margins are enough to give Florida a significant chance at prevailing in a seven-game series — but it’s hard not to believe destiny could be on New York’s side.


    The numbers

    Just two goals separate the Rangers and Panthers defensively.

    Defense has been a strength for Florida all season, thanks to their steady blue line and some strong two-way skaters up front at even strength and on the penalty kill. Tampa Bay challenged that in Round 1. The Panthers allowed more shots and scoring chances than usual to open the postseason, and were a bit leakier on the kill.

    Florida tightened up against the Bruins, conceding almost 13 attempts and 0.21 expected goals fewer per 60 between rounds at five-on-five. Boston only mustered one goal in almost 26 minutes of power-play time against the Panthers’ penalty kill through six games.

    The Rangers came into the playoffs as a pretty solid defensive team and carried that into Round 1. They weren’t tested as much against the Washington Capitals, but the Hurricanes were a different animal. For all the shot volume Carolina created, New York did its best to limit higher-danger shots, especially through the first half of the series. That extended to the penalty kill. The Rangers now have broken even in short-handed goals, with four for and four against.

    Offense is where Florida has the real edge. The Panthers create more shots and quality chances than New York. In the regular season, the Rangers had better finishing to show for it at five-on-five. Both teams lean on a lot of high-danger passing and puck movement, and Florida is a better team at defending off the rush, which will present a challenge for the Rangers. New York, however, has a knack for making more out of less.

    Through two rounds of the playoffs, the Panthers are converting on their chances and scoring more than expected. That just hasn’t trickled to the power play, where the Rangers thrive.


    The big question

    Can the Rangers keep up their knack for winning close games?

    Just win, baby. At the end of the day, that’s all that matters.

    No team has embodied that more than the Rangers. In 92 regular-season and playoff games, they have 63 wins and a .684 win percentage that’s unmatched. So why aren’t their chances of advancing higher?

    The answer is simple: goal differential. New York’s plus-53 ranks seventh. That’s a lot closer to where oddsmakers had the team’s Cup chances to start the postseason (sixth) as well as our own odds (fifth).

    Some may scoff at that notion, but if they’re looking for answers as to why the Presidents’ Trophy winners are again entering a series as underdogs, that’s basically it. It may feel like unfair treatment for the team with the best record, but the unusual part is a team earning the best record with the seventh-best goal differential.

    Not only has that never happened before (in a league with at least 20 teams), but the last time a Presidents’ Trophy winner was even outside the top three was in 1979.

    Pres. Trophy goal diff. since ’79

    Rank Instances

    First

    29

    Second

    9

    Third

    4

    Fourth

    1

    Fifth

    0

    Six

    0

    Seventh

    1

    When it comes to figuring out team strength, margin of victory plays a big role. Modeling player value to figure that out goes down the same path. It all comes down to how a player affects goals for and goals against — not wins.

    That’s a key distinction, and it’s why there’s a disconnect when a team’s record doesn’t quite align with its ability to outscore opponents. The two are very highly correlated, but not perfectly so.

    The reason the Rangers won more games than their goal differential dictated is the same reason they aren’t more highly regarded here: their record in one-goal games. Generally speaking, that’s not something that can be counted on with consistency. Margin of victory speaks volumes about a team’s ability.

    Don’t get us wrong, the Rangers still had a very strong record in games not decided by one goal. They’re an elite team. But a 23-4-4 record in one-goal games did a lot of heavy lifting toward their finish as the league’s top team.

    All of that speaks to why the math is not on New York’s side in this series … just as it wasn’t in Round 2 against Carolina. What happened there? Three straight one-goal wins to open up the series, naturally.

    Some might call that good fortune with potential to regress at the cruelest time.

    But after a full season of winning that exact way, there’s plenty of room to believe the Rangers have the It Factor necessary to keep it up. Maybe they do just have an innate ability to win those close, tight games of attrition — the ones that Stanley Cup championships are built off of.

    It might even be the magic of Peter Laviolette, whose 2005-06 Hurricanes won the Stanley Cup with their own consistent ability to be one goal better. They went 28-5-8 in one-goal games during the regular season to lead the league, before winning 10 of their 16 playoff games by a single goal.

    That’s really all it takes: one more goal than the other guys.

    Our estimation might have the Panthers as the stronger team, but the Rangers’ ability to get that extra goal more than any other team can’t be ignored. When the expected margin in each game is under one goal, New York’s knack for getting it could very well be the difference.


    The X-factor

    Can Florida match New York’s special-teams mastery?

    For the Rangers, a big part of that knack comes from their power-play performance. In the regular season, they were third in percentage (26.4), fourth in goals (0.79 per game) and sixth in expected goals/60 (10.17). That mix of process and results has carried over into the playoffs, where they’re second only to Edmonton in goals per game (1.1) and percentage (31.4). They’ve won all six games in which they’ve scored a power-play goal, including the clincher against Carolina. On the other side of things, their penalty kill (89.5 percent) has been the most effective in the league.

    It’d be an edge over almost any other opponent — including the Panthers, who were a top-10 power-play team but have watched their production dip in the playoffs. They’ve scored eight times in 11 games, which is fine, but four of those came in Game 3 against Boston.

    The good news for the Panthers: They’re getting looks, and actually beating the Rangers in expected goals/60 (11.5 to 10.3). That fact, combined with their track record of power-play success and a penalty kill that has limited opportunities better than 14 other playoff teams, will give them a shot at neutralizing one of New York’s major advantages.


    The rosters

    A series between the Rangers and Panthers brings a ton of star power. Florida knows what its best can do on the biggest stage. The question is whether New York’s leading players can bring it consistently.

    That starts with Artemi Panarin. The Panarin line thrived in Games 1-3 of Round 2, with 74 percent of the expected goals share and a 4-3 edge in scoring. But Carolina exposed some of their defensive flaws in the second half of the series.

    While Panarin has delivered timely scoring throughout the playoffs, against the Panthers there may not be as much room for error in the defensive zone. The bright side is that Panarin’s linemates have brought it all postseason long, to give that line more than one threat. Alexis Lafrenière’s Net Rating has increased the most of any player in this series since the playoffs kicked off, with a plus-2.1 goals improvement. Vincent Trocheck has been leaned on heavily in all situations and has stirred the pot through two rounds, which should match up well with Matthew Tkachuk’s rat-king antics.

    New York needs more than one line to click, which puts pressure on the rest of the lineup. Chris Kreider rose to the occasion with a massive third period in Game 6 to get the Rangers here, but the bottom-six raises more questions.

    Kaapo Kakko, Alex Wennberg and Will Cuylle can wear down opponents and control play, but they don’t contribute much scoring. Filip Chytil is a potential spark to change that if he’s available. With him in the fold, the Rangers are a deeper, more flexible team. Without him, there isn’t a trusty 12th forward for the coaches to lean on, which has led to top-sixers getting double-shifted.

    The Rangers’ defense got dealt a much tougher workload in Round 2 against Carolina. And with more challenging competition came some adjustments. K’Andre Miller’s pair was shifted back into heavier matchups to lighten the load on the Adam FoxRyan Lindgren pairing.

    Fox alone brings a plus-17 Rating, which counters the Panthers’ entire top pair. Add Lindgren’s minus-3 Net Rating, and they slip below Florida; his value has declined more than any other player in this series. By redistributing some of that burden, the Rangers avoid burying their best defenseman.

    But what does that matchup pair look like in Round 3?

    Miller was rolling with Braden Schneider in the playoffs until Game 6 against Carolina, when he was reunited with Jacob Trouba. Miller-Schneider was far from perfect, but Trouba’s numbers at least improved in a more sheltered role. Adding to his workload now could be risky.

    The Rangers at least have a safety net in goalie Igor Shesterkin. He’s been excellent so far no matter the workload he’s faced, whether that means a low-event game, a ton of low-danger shots or more dynamic chances. Through 10 games, he’s given the Rangers eight quality starts.

    The Panthers differ from the Rangers on the back end. They have fine goaltending in Sergei Bobrovsky, though this isn’t the Playoff Bob of last year. Florida makes up for that with a much stronger blue line.

    That starts with Gustav Forsling, one of the best shutdown defensemen in the league. With Aaron Ekblad on the top pair, their Defensive Ratings have slipped a bit — but they’ve also faced a steady dose of elite talent, with matchups against the likes of Nikita Kucherov and David Pastrnak.

    That pair plays heavy minutes so that Brandon Montour can stick to his offensive strengths. With Niko Mikkola, the second pair has a plus-8 Net Rating, which crushes the Rangers’ second pair which sits at a minus-5.

    Montour and Forsling give the Panthers two defensemen with upward of a plus-10 Net Rating. Their forward group stacks another four on top of that, between Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk. That’s four playoff performers at the top of the lineup.

    In Reinhart and Barkov, the Panthers have a pair of elite two-way threats who are heavily leaned upon in all situations. Reinhart’s scoring pace in the postseason may not match his unbelievable regular-season heights, but he continues to put up a ton of shots and scoring chances on a nightly basis. And at five-on-five alongside Barkov, he has some of the best two-way impact on Florida’s expected goal suppression and creation, relative to his teammates.

    Those two drive the top line, which allows Vladimir Tarasenko to more fittingly be the passenger who adds some scoring pop from the left wing.

    The Verhaeghe-Tkachuk combination on the second line is as clutch as it gets. Verhaeghe is a huge threat off the rush and raises his game whenever the playoffs roll around; his Net Rating has jumped by 0.5 so far this postseason, thanks to his two-way play.

    Tkachuk’s scoring may not match last postseason’s torrid pace, but he is still tied with Barkov as the most valuable forward in this series with a plus-22 Net Rating. He’s scoring at over a point-per-game pace, with 14 in 11 games, and has made a strong impact on the Panthers’ expected and actual goal generation at five-on-five. Florida has managed without Tkachuk being their MVP, but that game-breaking skill could always get unlocked this series — he showed just how much he thrives in these situations last year.

    A healthy Sam Bennett is back to skating between Tkachuck and Verhaeghe. While Bennett made his mark on the Bruins series, the wingers actually were stronger with Lundell between them — that line outscored opponents 5-1 while earning a 63 percent expected goals rate.

    Lundell emerged as a strong member of the supporting cast after having a relatively underwhelming regular season. Now he has to carry the success that he has had with Tkachuk and Verhaeghe to a third line that has struggled so far this postseason.


    The key matchup

    Mika Zibanejad vs. Aleksander Barkov

    We were close to not getting this matchup at all. Barkov blocked a shot with his hand down the stretch in Florida’s clincher against Boston. “I’m fine, I’m good,” Barkov told Sportsnet after the game. Assuming that’s the truth, he’ll have the opportunity to build on what may have been the signature playoff series of his career thus far. Barkov had eight points against the Bruins, and the Panthers outscored Boston 5-4 with him on the ice at five-on-five, also controlling more than 62 percent of the expected goal share. It was a dominant showing on both sides of the puck, and exactly the sort of series that puts players in the Conn Smythe Trophy discussion.

    Zibanejad, though, is significantly better than any of the centers Boston could throw at the Panthers. Like Barkov, he’s a do-everything, first-line stud, and he’s seen his point production tick upward in the playoffs. After a (relatively) down offensive season, he had points in each of New York’s first eight playoff games. New York’s top line of Zibanejad, Kreider and Jack Roslovic hasn’t quite controlled the run of play at five-on-five — they’re at about 45 percent expected goals — but they’ve outscored their issues. They may have to do the same against Barkov’s line. It’s a tall task, but not an impossible one.


    The bottom line

    A 65 percent chance is far from a lock — the Rangers already know that. They look destined for greatness.

    Still, the Panthers may be their toughest challenge yet, a team that skillfully blends suffocating structure with game-breaking star power.

    References

    How these projections work
    Understanding projection uncertainty 

    Resources

    Evolving Hockey
    Natural Stat Trick
    Hockey Reference
    NHL
    All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder

    (Photo: Jared Silber / NHLI via Getty Images)