Rwanda bill – live: Sunak’s immigration agenda to face Tory rebels in key vote

Cabinet minister Grant Shapps has insisted the Rwanda scheme would prevent the vast majority of attempts to use the courts to avoid being sent to the African nation.

He rejected calls from the Tory right to ignore international law and insisted asylum seekers earmarked for flights to Rwanda would only have a “very narrow” legal path to avoid being put on a plane.

He told Times Radio: “The modelling shows … that only one out of 200 cases would now pass through, once this legislation – in the form proposed – has gone through and become law.

“I think it’s the case that once you break the model, that people will stop trying, or the people traffickers will stop trying to send people because it will be fundamentally unsuccessful.

“Now, you can always have an argument should you just break international law, or ignore the whole thing, or what have you.

“We think, on balance, the United Kingdom is a country which respects international law.”

Tory MPs from both wings of the bitterly divided party will convene to discuss their verdicts on Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda legislation in a major test for his leadership today.

The European Research Group of hardline Brexiteers will hold a summit to discuss the policy with other factions on the Conservative right on Monday.

Veteran MP Sir Bill Cash will present the findings of his so-called “star chamber” of lawyers, before they discuss how to vote on the Prime Minister’s Bill on Tuesday.

The more moderate wing of One Nation Conservatives are then set to hold a separate evening meeting in Parliament before releasing a statement on their judgment.

Sir Bill has already signalled that they do not believe the proposed law is fit for purpose to get the grounded £290 million scheme up and running, as it stands.

Tuesday is the first opportunity for the Commons to vote on the legislation, in what is called a second reading. A government Bill has not been defeated at this stage since 1986.

Far more common are defeats and amendments at later stages, but Mr Sunak only needs a rebellion of 28 Tories to see his majority destroyed as Labour will vote against it.

Prime minister Rishi Sunak faces the most perilous week of his leadership as factions in his bitterly divided Conservative party weigh up whether to derail his Rwanda legislation and his authority with it.

He faces a threat from both the right and left as the tribes hold separate meetings today to consider if they will back the flagship bill in a crunch vote on Tuesday.

Mr Sunak and top ministers including foreign secretary Lord Cameron have been engaging with MPs over the weekend in order to quell any rebellion.

Mr Sunak has told MPs the Conservatives must “unite or die”, but it is unclear whether they will heed his warnings, as some of his possible successors court limelight.

Robert Jenrick, who resigned as immigration minister over the legislation, told the BBC on Sunday he will not support the “weak bill that will not work”.

But he said “we can fix this”, raising the possibility he could abstain along with other opponents before trying to amend the legislation at a later stage.

Veteran MP Sir Bill Cash wrote in the Sunday Telegraph that the bill is not “sufficiently watertight to meet the Government’s policy objectives”, but suggested it could be amended and fixed.

Tuesday is the first opportunity for the Commons to vote on the legislation, in what is called a second reading. A government bill has not been defeated at this stage since 1986.

The Home Office believes that Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda policy will stop 99.5% of migrant claims from being successful in blocking their deportation to Rwanda, according to reports.

Leaked documents seen by The Times reportedly show modelling predicting that nine in ten of individual legal challenges would be rejected with no right of appeal within 10 days of their arrival in the UK.

Officials believe that of the ten percent granted a hearing, 90 per cent of these would fail at a second legal stage. Modelling then reportedly estimates that just half of the cases making it to a tribunal stage would succeed, the newspaper says.

To be successful under the prime minister’s flagship policy, migrants would have to provide evidence that they faced “serious and irreversible harm” if removed to Rwanda.

If modelling proves to be correct, just five out of every 1,000 migrant claims would prove successful.

Tuesday is the first opportunity for the Commons to vote on the legislation, in what is called a second reading. A government Bill has not been defeated at this stage since 1986.

Far more common are defeats and amendments at later stages, but Mr Sunak only needs a rebellion of 28 Tories to see his majority destroyed as Labour will vote against it.

A defeat would shred the Prime Minister’s authority, but One Nation chairman Damian Green said any Conservative who thinks they should change leader is “either mad, or malicious, or both”.

Conservative former solicitor general Lord Garnier, who has done the legal work for that group, has compared the Bill with ruling “all dogs are cats” by claiming Rwanda is safe.

He plans to oppose it in the Lords, where Mr Sunak’s battle is likely to be even greater, and has described it as making both political and legal “nonsense”.

A legal assessment for the Government has given it only a “50% at best” chance of successfully getting flights to Kigali off next year.

But Cabinet minister Michael Gove said on Sunday the Bill is “legally sound” and called it “tough and robust” while signalling an openness to possible improvements.

May 7: The former head of the British army, General Sir Richard Dannatt, attacks the government’s plan to send migrants who arrived on small boats to Rwanda – saying the country is still living under the “shadow of genocide”.

May 15: Ms Braverman sets out her plan for conservatism at a right-wing conference in central London. She spoke of her own parents’ arrival in Britain “through legal and controlled migration” and added that immigrants should “learn English and understand British social norms and mores”.

June 29: The Rwanda deal is ruled unlawful by the Court of Appeal with judges concluding that it is not a safe country to forcibly deport asylum seekers. The decision handed down by Lord Chief Justice, Lord Burnett, reverses the decision made by the High Court and said: “Unless and until the deficiencies in its asylum processes are corrected, removeal of asylum seekers to Rwanda will be unlawful.”

April 14: New figures show the Rwanda deal is failing to deter asylum seekers from crossing the English Channel a year after it was signed. As of early April, almost 5,000 people had made the journey since the start of 2023, which is almost exactly the same figure seen by the same point in 2022.

April 15: Small boat migrants previously threatened with deportation to Rwanda have been accepted into the UK’s asylum system after months of living in limbo. They were among thousands of asylum seekers sent “notices of intent” because they passed through countries, such as France, where the UK claims they could have remained before crossing the English Channel Their notices were subsequently withdrawn.

April 24: The next stage of the legal battle over the Rwanda deal began, with the Court of Appeal to reconsider if it is safe to send asylum seekers to the country. Suella Braverman widened the scope of the agreement since it was ruled lawful by the High Court in December 2022, meaning that it can also be applied to modern slavery victims and other small boat migrants.

April 24: Raza Husain KC told the Court of Appeal that Rwanda is not a safe country to receive asylum seekers from the UK and the High Court was wrong to declare the scheme lawful. The appellants argue that the Home Office breached several legal duties in deciding that Rwanda was a safe country to receive refugees, and failed to properly investigate the outcome of a similar deal with Israel which operated from 2013 to 2018.

January 4: Prime minister Rishi Sunak announces legislation to tackle the migrant crisis is one of five key priorities for his premiership.

March 7: Ms Braverman tells MPs the Illegal Migration Bill will impose a legal duty to remove those arriving in the country illegally, barring them from claiming asylum in the UK.

March 10: Tensions mount as Mr Sunak defends the policy as “the right approach” against criticism from sports pundit Gary Lineker. Lineker’s intervention led to a high-profile impartiality row that saw him suspended from Match Of The Day. A number of his colleagues, including Alan Shearer and Ian Wright boycotted the show and others in solidarity with the presenter and he was later reinstated.

March 12: Chancellor Jeremy Hunt does not rule out the prospect of children being detained under the new plans, which would see those crossing the Channel eligible for asylum only in a “safe” third country such as Rwanda.

March 13: The plan draws criticism from former Tory prime minister Theresa May, who says it is “not enough” to send people to claim asylum in Rwanda and warns the UK is “shutting the door” on victims of modern slavery.

March 14: A High Court judge rules that asylum seekers facing removal to Rwanda can appeal against Home Office decisions over alleged errors in the consideration of whether relocation poses a risk to their human rights, dealing another blow to the plan.

March 17: Ms Braverman doubles down on the deportation policy on a visit to Rwanda despite the plan remaining embroiled in legal battles, claiming the £140 million deal will be a “powerful deterrent” to those attempting to cross the Channel.

March 18: Ms Braverman is given a tour of potential migrant housing after the land was purchased by the Rwandan government, ahead of meeting with President Paul Kagame and her counterpart Vincent Biruta to discuss the deal.

April 14: Following a drastic increase in the number of people crossing the Channel, then-prime minister Boris Johnson announces a plan to deport migrants arriving in small boats to Rwanda for their claims to be processed. He says this would act as a “very considerable deterrent”.

June 15: The first deportation flight to Rwanda is cancelled just minutes before take-off following a ruling by a judge at the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg.

August 23: The Ministry of Defence says 1,295 migrants made the crossing in 27 boats, another new record which remains the highest figure for a single day.

August 25: Former home secretary Priti Patel announces an agreement with the Albanian government to send migrants back in a bid to curb the numbers arriving from that country amid concerns they account for 60 per cent of all UK arrivals.

November 14: New Home Secretary Suella Braverman signs an agreement with French interior minister Gerald Darmian allowing British officers to join French beach patrols.

November 23: Ms Braverman admits the government has “failed to control our borders”, but tells MPs they are determined to “fix” the problem, following criticism of overcrowding at the Manston processing centre in Kent.

December 14: Four people die and 39 others are rescued after their dinghy capsizes in the Channel.

December 19: The High Court rules the government’s Rwanda policy is lawful, but orders the cases of the first eight deportees to be reconsidered.

December 31: Some 45,755 migrants made the Channel crossing over the course of the year, according to government figures.

Robert Jenrick, who resigned as immigration minister over the legislation, told the BBC on Sunday he will not support the “weak Bill that will not work”.

But he said “we can fix this”, raising the possibility he could abstain along with other opponents before trying to amend the legislation at a later stage.

That could spare the Prime Minister a damaging defeat during a perilous week that begins with a grilling at the official coronavirus inquiry.

Mark Francois, chairman of the European Research Group, has invited the New Conservatives and the Common Sense and Conservative Growth groups to hear Sir Bill Cash’s “forensic examination” at the Commons meeting.

“We then aim to have a collective discussion about our best approach to the second reading of the Bill, on Tuesday,” the MP said.

Sir Bill wrote in the Sunday Telegraph that the Bill is not “sufficiently watertight to meet the Government’s policy objectives”, but suggested it could be amended and fixed.