The 2023 college football season gave us plenty of both on-field fireworks and off-field turmoil. On Monday, it gives us two fascinating College Football Playoff semifinals on ESPN: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama in the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (5 p.m. ET) and No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Texas in the Allstate Sugar Bowl (8:45 p.m.).
From the weight of Michigan’s expectations (and playoff disappointments), to Bama’s second chance, to Texas’ and Washington’s extreme clutchitude, the storylines in these two games are abundant. Let’s not waste any more words — it’s time to preview the CFP semifinals.
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Key injuries | QB breakdowns
Impactful plays
Rose Bowl keys | Sugar Bowl keys
Key injuries and absences
Alabama Crimson Tide: Leading rusher Jase McClellan missed the SEC championship with a foot injury. Backups Roydell Williams and Jam Miller have been equally productive this season, but it appears McClellan is probable. Cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry left the Georgia game with a concussion, but he cleared protocol and has been practicing.
Michigan Wolverines: Star right guard Zak Zinter was lost for the season with a leg injury during the Wolverines’ win over Ohio State. He was the team’s best run blocker, and it appeared he was missed against Iowa: None of Blake Corum‘s 16 rushes in the Big Ten championship gained more than six yards. Cornerback Will Johnson also missed the Iowa game, but he is expected back.
Texas Longhorns: Leading receiver Xavier Worthy aggravated an ankle injury in the Big 12 championship, but he has been practicing since. The Longhorns’ only noteworthy absence is running back Jonathon Brooks: The 1,100-yard rusher tore an ACL in mid-November.
Washington Huskies: Washington should be about as healthy as it has been in quite a while. Receiver Jalen McMillan missed large chunks of the year with injury but thrived in the Pac-12 championship. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. was rumored to be dealing with a number of maladies, but rest should help significantly.
The QBs
Let’s talk about the four starting signal-callers, with help from StatsBomb’s statistical radars:
Jalen Milroe, Alabama
Milroe might be the biggest wild card in the entire CFP. He has taken a shocking number of sacks this season — even with late-season improvement, the Tide rank 128th in sack rate allowed — but his 15 completions of 40-plus yards and his 747 non-sack rushing yards are easily the most of the CFP QBs. Heading into November, Milroe ranked 19th in Total QBR; he’s ranked sixth since. Michigan hasn’t faced anyone with his mobility or big-play intentions this season.
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
McCarthy was first in Total QBR heading into November but ranked only 15th thereafter. He went from averaging 9.9 yards per dropback over his first eight games to 5.8 over his past five. Of course, he played three of the four best defenses in the country (per SP+) in that span — Penn State, Ohio State and Iowa — and he was battling a nagging ankle injury that has since gotten rest.
For the season McCarthy has completed 74% of his passes, and he can steal a couple of first downs per game with his legs. Big plays are an issue, however — either he and his receivers haven’t been able to make many, or they just haven’t had to yet.
Quinn Ewers, Texas
The former blue-chipper remains a mystery. Ewers ranks 15th in Total QBR (worst of the four), he has taken 25 sacks (second most), his passes average only 7.3 air yards downfield (lowest) and he doesn’t add much with his legs. In 21 career starts, his Total QBR rating has topped 90 just five times. But among those five performances were two games against Alabama, one against rival Oklahoma and one against Oklahoma State in the 2023 Big 12 championship. In four of the biggest games of his life, he completed 70% of his passes at 13.8 yards per completion with 11 touchdowns and only two picks and one sack. Brilliant. If Milroe isn’t the biggest wild card in the CFP, Big Game Quinn is.
Michael Penix Jr., Washington
Over his first six games of 2023 — a stretch culminating with the Huskies’ 36-33 home win over Oregon — Penix was the best quarterback in the country. He was producing Joe Burrow-like numbers. But from there, regression struck. He went from 10.3 yards per dropback over the first six games to 7.3 over his past seven, his completion rate fell from 72% to 61%, and both his interception and sack rates rose. He was solid in the second win over Oregon, however, and having receiver Jalen McMillan back helps a ton. But he needs to channel September Penix for the Huskies to win two more games.
The biggest plays of the season
You probably don’t reach the CFP if you have too many high-leverage, game-in-the-balance plays, but just about everyone has a few. Let’s see what we can learn about each team based on their most impactful plays of the season. (In this case, I’ll define that as any play that either increased or decreased each team’s in-game win probability, per FPI, by at least 15%.)
Alabama
Let’s start with Bama’s good plays.
While the Tide’s 27-24 win over Georgia was more of a slow burn, there were back-and-forths in their loss to Texas and their tight wins over Auburn and Texas A&M. It seems noteworthy that of the eight plays on this list, four were passes to Jermaine Burton. Bond has been Milroe’s most frequent target this season, but Burton, the veteran Georgia transfer, has averaged 22.2 yards over 35 receptions, and when in doubt, Milroe looks for him.
Here are the negative plays.
Of the 17 most impactful plays of Bama’s season, six came within a seven-minute span against Texas, and five came in the last five minutes against Auburn. And of the nine negative plays above, three were offensive miscues and five were opponents’ touchdown passes. Alabama’s pass defense is mostly outstanding — the Tide rank sixth in passing success rate allowed and 12th in sacks per dropback — but the breakdowns were costly as 17% of opponents’ completions gained at least 20 yards (81st nationally).
Michigan
In terms of plays that altered their win probability (for better or worse) by at least 15%, Alabama, Texas and Washington averaged 20.3 plays among them. Michigan: zero. In fact, only five plays have cleared the 10% barrier: three against Ohio State, two against Penn State.
No other games were really ever in doubt. Even in the 31-24 late-season win over Maryland, Michigan was never in a genuine make-or-break situation — the Terrapins never snapped the ball beyond their own 33-yard line when they were within seven points. The Wolverines ruthlessly took care of business in 2023, and we didn’t necessarily learn much about how they operate in tight situations.
Texas
Washington is 7-0 in one-score finishes this season, but with 26, Texas played in the most high-impact snaps. Eleven of them came against Kansas State, however, a game Ewers missed with injury. Let’s look at the other 15.
Two of the top three game-turning plays came from the defense. While the Longhorns rank 10th in defensive SP+ primarily because of the run defense — they’re fifth in rushing success rate allowed and 12th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) — the secondary has had its moments. And while Georgia transfer Adonai Mitchell has come up big at times, Ewers has found Jordan Whittington and tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders in key moments, too. Worthy, meanwhile, is the No. 1 target, and running backs have caught more than 60 passes. If you think you spot a tendency with this passing game, you’re probably wrong.
Three of the six most negative plays came on the same last-minute Oklahoma drive that eventually broke Texas’ unbeaten record. All six of these plays involved the pass defense. The Horns rank a solid 24th in passing success rate allowed, but they don’t boast a strong pass rush, and they haven’t faced anything as relentless as this Washington passing game.
Washington
When you play (and win) seven games with one-score finishes, you get pretty used to tense moments. Washington had 18 high-impact plays, and they came from nine different games.
The Huskies managed to go unbeaten despite ranking 64th in points allowed per drive and 113th in yards allowed per drive, which makes it a little poetic that the single biggest play of the season came from the D. Meanwhile, it probably isn’t a surprise to see that three of the six offensive plays on the list came from Odunze. He might have been better than even Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. this season.
I guess it’s also poetic that the most costly play of the season came from Penix. That aside, despite Dillon Johnson’s overall success (especially late in the season), Washington struggled in short-yardage situations, and that shows with a couple of short-yardage failures here.
3 keys to Alabama vs. Michigan
Alabama is the winningest team of the playoff era, with nine CFP wins and three national titles. Michigan is looking for the breakthrough after the breakthrough: The Wolverines have now won three straight Big Ten titles and reached three straight playoffs while improving on paper each year. However, in their first two CFP appearances, they underachieved dramatically. In 2021, as 7.5-point underdogs, they got blown out by Georgia 34-11. In 2022, as 7.5-point favorites, they trailed by 19 late in the third quarter and fell 51-45. That’s 29 points’ worth of underachievement in two games, and it extended what is now a six-game bowl losing streak for Harbaugh and Michigan.
For all the off-field spygate headlines, Michigan has easily been the most consistently awesome team in the country on paper. The Wolverines are first in SP+, and Alabama comes in just seventh — the Crimson Tide haven’t finished a season ranked that low since 2008.
That said, the gap has shrunk. Over the past five games, Michigan has underachieved against SP+ projections by 3.1 points per game while Bama overachieved by 8.7. The Tide offense, so dramatically inconsistent over the first half of the year, has improved significantly. And in the one recent game in which it stalled, against Auburn, it still made clutch plays late.
Here are three key factors that will decide the Saban-Harbaugh Bowl:
Who wins the Big Burly Manball battle?
These offenses love some heavy formations, and they’re going to run the ball until you force them to do something else.
12 and 13 personnel* usage
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Michigan: 34.5 plays per game (third nationally), 49% success rate (20th), 4.5 yards per rush (34th), 8.5 yards per pass attempt (45th)
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Alabama: 25.9 plays per game (21st), 48% success rate (25th), 4.8 yards per rush (19th), 10.1 yards per pass attempt (15th)
* 12 personnel = one running back and two tight ends; 13 personnel = one RB and three TEs.
On standard downs (first downs, second-and-7 or less, third- or fourth-and-4 or less), Alabama runs the ball 66% of the time (10th nationally), and Michigan runs 64% (19th). This is going to be an extremely physical football game.
There’s a clear plus and a clear minus for Michigan in the physicality department. On one hand, the Wolverines’ defense has been far more successful against heavy sets this year than Alabama has. Against 12 and 13 personnel, it allows just 3.2 yards per play (first nationally). McClellan, Williams and Miller combined to average a decent but unspectacular 4.9 yards per carry for Alabama. Michigan allowed just 3.6 yards per carry to running backs, third nationally.
Alabama, meanwhile, has allowed 4.8 yards per play (55th) and 8.4 yards per pass attempt (97th) against 12 or 13 personnel. This isn’t the stoutest defensive front of the Saban era, and Michigan might have some play-action opportunities.
On the other hand, Michigan is missing its run-blocking anchor.
Corum has rushed for 1,028 yards this season, but his most efficient moments have come from running in the middle gaps. Zinter had just a 0.3% blown run block rate in 2023, as low as you’ll ever see for a guard, and without him there’s no guarantee the Wolverines will establish the type of manball game that can open up clear play-action chances.
Has Michigan been stockpiling big plays again?
Plenty has been made of the fact that, after averaging 40.7 points per game over their first nine games, the Wolverines averaged only 27.8 from there. McCarthy’s numbers slipped too. But Michigan was also facing increasingly awesome defenses. It still scored more than almost anyone else all year on Penn State (24), Ohio State (30) and Iowa (26). No one else topped even 17 points on Ohio State. While Michigan underachieved on both sides of the ball against Maryland, it met projections in these other recent games. That’s why the Wolverines remain a comfortable No. 1 in SP+.
Considering how athletic and aggressive Alabama’s pass defense is, however, it’s still hard to expect huge things from the Michigan attack. McKinstry and Terrion Arnold have more interceptions than TDs allowed, and the pass rush, driven by Dallas Turner‘s and Chris Braswell‘s combined 17 sacks and 84 pressures, ranks 12th in sacks per dropback, third on passing downs.
Although the quality of opposition defense indeed played a major role in McCarthy’s recent diminished numbers, there’s no question the numbers have diminished.
On passes thrown between 11 and 20 yards downfield, McCarthy has gone from completing 63% over his first 21 starts to just 52% in his past five. On passes more than 20 yards downfield, he has gone from 43% to 36%.
Of course, last year it seemed as if Michigan had an explosiveness problem, too. In 11 games, the Wolverines managed just 21 gains of more than 30 yards. But it was as if they were stockpiling them: They had 15 in their past three games. They’ve been in such control of games in 2023 that they haven’t needed big plays. Have they been hoarding them again?
The Milroe factor
Rutgers’ Gavin Wimsatt had a 15-yard rush. Indiana’s Brendan Sorsby had a 16-yarder. Purdue’s Hudson Card had a 21-yarder, albeit when the Boilermakers were already down 20-0. That’s about it. Michigan’s incredible defense has almost never struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks in 2023. The Wolverines also haven’t really faced quarterbacks who tried to break containment. Big Ten defenses have been ridiculously effective this year — the conference boasts the top four defenses, per SP+, and seven of the top 22. But they haven’t exactly faced extreme offensive diversity. And no one in the conference has faced someone like Milroe.
It took first-year Bama offensive coordinator Tommy Rees a while to craft what amounted to a Milroe Offense. The components were always there: In Week 1, Milroe completed touchdown passes of 48, 47 and 29 yards with rushes of 25 and 21 in a blowout of Middle Tennessee. But he took five sacks and threw two costly picks against Texas, and after his well-documented benching against USF — in which his backups completed just 10 of 23 passes with five sacks — he took 23 more sacks over his next five starts. Bama slipped as low as 19th in offensive SP+; it had ranked either first or second every year from 2018 through 2022.
November told a different story. Milroe was otherworldly against LSU and Kentucky, with a combined 453 passing yards, 203 non-sack rushing yards, 10 combined TDs and only 2 sacks. He took only two more sacks against Chattanooga and Auburn while producing another five scores and the late-game Iron Bowl heroics.
Georgia used two spies on him in an attempt to keep him from scrambling effectively, and it worked for stretches of the SEC championship. Milroe took four sacks, and Bama went three-and-out four times. The Tide gained 71% of their yards in only three of 11 drives, but they still enjoyed those three masterful possessions, and his 30- and 9-yard keepers iced the game on the final drive.
Michigan’s pass rush is diverse and excellent, ranking third in pressure rate and 14th in sack rate. Six players have at least 2.5 sacks, and nine have at least 11 pressures. But they were attacking mostly stationary targets. The Wolverines could very well contain Milroe, just as the incredible defensive back trio of corners Josh Wallace and Will Johnson and nickel Mike Sainristil — who have allowed a completion rate of just 42% among them — could contain Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond. But even if this is the worst-graded offense Alabama has had since 2015, it’s also both the best and most unique attack the Wolverines have faced.
Projections
ESPN BET: Michigan 23.0, Alabama 21.5 (Michigan -1.5, over/under: 44.5 points) | SP+: Michigan 28.6, Alabama 20.2
Since 2008, Alabama has been an underdog only seven times. The Tide won five of those seven games. Combine that with Michigan’s extreme CFP underachievement to date, and it’s understandable why computers like the Wolverines more than the humans do (as evidenced by the difference between SP+ projections and the spread). But Bama is also the underdog for a reason: Week for week, Michigan has comfortably been the superior football team.
This is a pretty intense matchup of efficiency versus explosiveness, of consistency versus volatility, and it honestly wouldn’t surprise me if whoever wins derives large enough advantages to win comfortably.
3 keys to Texas vs. Washington
On Jan. 8, either Steve Sarkisian or Kalen DeBoer will be coaching in the national title game. Two years ago, with Sarkisian having gone 5-7 in his first season at Texas and DeBoer getting ready to start his first power-conference head-coaching job, that would have been a jarring thought. Maybe it shouldn’t have been. Between them, after all, they have coached in seven title games. Sarkisian was USC’s quarterbacks coach in 2005, when the Trojans lost a legendary BCS title game to Texas. He was Alabama’s emergency offensive coordinator for the CFP in 2016 after Lane Kiffin left, and he was the playcaller for Saban’s finest offense, the title-winning 2020 attack. This is his 10th year as a head coach, and he has been around the highest level of the game for a while. And after losing a whopping 10 one-score games in 2021-22 — including one to DeBoer’s Huskies last season — his Longhorns have become closers in 2023.
DeBoer’s success has been less conventional, but between DeBoer and Kansas’ Lance Leipold, we’ve pretty clearly learned that small-school success can translate on a large-school level. DeBoer reached four NAIA national title games at alma mater Sioux Falls, winning three. And including two years each at Fresno State and Washington, he’s now 103-11 as a head coach. His Huskies have won 20 straight games.
Sarkisian and DeBoer are both seasoned in big games, but this is their biggest game yet. Here are three keys:
Sark and game scripts
Every coach has his own way of scripting a game, but we generally refer to the first 15 plays of a given game as the “scripted” portion. And Sarkisian might be the best scripter in college football.
In the last three games of the Tide’s 2020 title romp — the SEC championship, the CFP semifinal against Notre Dame and the title game against Ohio State — Sarkisian’s Alabama offenses peaked, averaging 10.0 yards per play during the scripted portion. And in his time at Texas, the Horns have consistently come out on fire against good teams. They’ve played 14 ranked opponents in Sark’s three seasons, and they’ve averaged 7.3 yards per scripted play against them. That average has risen to 8.6 in 2023. It was 12.8 against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship.
The Texas defense has also been awesome out of the gate this year: The Horns allow just 4.1 yards per play during this scripted portion, fourth nationally.
Early leads are a big reason the Longhorns have made it this far. They’ve played 11 power conference opponents this season and led nine of them by double digits in the first half. Oklahoma’s ability to trade blows early on — the Sooners led 20-17 at halftime — played a huge role in Texas’ only loss.
Washington isn’t exactly mediocre early. The Huskies average 7.1 yards per play and allow 5.0 in the scripted portion, and they were as good as anyone at laying the hammer down early in 2023. Troubles arose in the back half of the season — they trailed Arizona State (7-3) and Utah (28-24) and were tied with Washington State (14-14) at halftime — but a 20-3 early lead was vital in the Pac-12 championship. It would represent a big hurdle cleared if Washington avoids an early deficit.
It’s all on Penix?
Oklahoma State’s Ollie Gordon II leads the nation with 1,732 rushing yards. He gained 34 in 13 carries against Texas. Texas leads the nation in allowing running backs only 3.5 yards per carry. The Horns boast probably the best set of defensive tackles in the country, led by Outland Trophy winner T’Vondre Sweat and his patently unfair combination of size (6-foot-4, 362 pounds) and playmaking ability (9 tackles for loss, 16 run stuffs, 5 pass breakups). And in Byron Murphy II, Alfred Collins and Trill Carter, Texas has three other 300-pounders to line up next to Sweat.
Washington’s Dillon Johnson was vital to keeping the Huskies’ winning streak alive late in the season as Penix’s effectiveness waned. Over his past five games, he has averaged 22.8 carries and 136.6 yards per game, and his 152 yards and two scores in the Pac-12 championship allowed the Huskies to ride out their early lead. He averages a solid 5.4 yards per carry between the tackles, and the line in front of him won the 2023 Joe Moore Award (given to the best offensive line unit). But it would be a surprise if the Huskies attempted to lean on Johnson when there are yards to be gained through the air.
Texas’ pass defense was pretty efficient overall, but the Longhorns gave up big plays in key moments against Alabama, Oklahoma, Houston and Kansas State, and with Jalen McMillan healthy and Penix rested, this is the best passing game UT has faced in 2023.
Even while missing McMillan for most of two months, Washington still had one of the best receiver duos in the country in Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk. They’ve combined for 141 catches, 2,428 yards and 21 touchdowns this year. They’re both incredible. But McMillan is an efficiency cheat code, something the Huskies will desperately need against Texas if the between-the-tackles run game indeed isn’t an option.
Against Oregon, seven of McMillan’s nine catches came within five yards of the line of scrimmage, but he still went for 131 yards and six first downs. He averaged 9.8 yards on four passes caught behind the line of scrimmage. When he’s stressing defenders on short passes, it can open up deep-shot opportunities for not only McMillan but also Odunze and Polk. In McMillan’s four truly full-strength games — the first three of the season and the Pac-12 championship — Penix completed 54% of his passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield; in the other nine games, he completed 41%. That probably isn’t a coincidence.
Who does the little things better?
This is the second straight season the Longhorns and Huskies have battled in the postseason.
In last season’s Alamo Bowl, Ewers (369 yards and a touchdown) actually outdueled Penix (287 yards, two TDs and an INT), but the Washington run game thrived against a weaker Texas front. The Huskies tilted the field — their field position advantage was plus-8.0 yards per drive — and created seven scoring opportunities (first downs inside the opponent’s 40) to Texas’ four. They won the scripted portion of the game and took a 13-3 lead into halftime, but they couldn’t quite put the game away because of missed opportunities. They scored TDs on just three of seven opportunities, which kept the door open, but Texas was able to score TDs on just two of four, too.
1:57
Washington locks down 11-win season with Alamo Bowl victory
Washington defeats Texas 27-20 in the Alamo Bowl to lock down its first 11-win season since 2016.
Texas should have a special teams advantage — the Horns are 17th in special teams SP+, Washington ranks 46th and Bert Auburn is the far steadier place-kicker — but advantages are hard to discern in other typical little things categories.
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Average field position margin: Washington +6.7 (fifth), Texas +6.0 (eighth)
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Red zone TD rate (when Texas has the ball): Texas offense 49% (122nd), Washington defense 71% (119th)
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Red zone TD rate (when Washington has the ball): Washington offense 70% (21st), Texas defense 47% (16th)
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Turnover margin: Texas +7 (22nd), Washington +1 (54th)
Texas’ biggest weakness (red zone offense) appears to be offset by Washington’s (red zone defense), and both teams are pretty strong in the other categories. In a game with two high-flying offenses, any lead won’t be particularly safe, and little things could end up telling the story.
Projections
ESPN BET: Texas 33.8, Washington 29.8 (Texas -4, over/under: 63.5 points) SP+: Texas 33.3, Washington 27.3
The Longhorns hold the overall advantage here because of their dominant defensive front — and the fact that Washington’s has been above average at best — and it seems like there’s an opportunity for Texas to build an early lead. But the longer the game stays close, the more the advantage might shift toward UW. One way or another, we’re guaranteed to end up with at least one CFP title game debutant.
