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    New Mexico vs San Diego State Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

    There’s a matchup between two distinguished Mountain West teams for college hoops fans to look forward to on Friday night as the New Mexico Lobos head to Southern California to face the San Diego State Aztecs.

    If you’re thinking about staying up late to watch this game, I’d encourage you to do just that, as this matchup looks like a must-watch. Both teams are in the thick of the conference race and could use a win to stay in the mix. 

    Looking at college basketball odds, the SDSU is a 6.5-point favorite while the total is set at 152.5. 

    The Aztecs have won three of the last four regular-season MWC titles and are undefeated at home (12-0) this season. 

    The Lobos have enough talent to beat nearly any team in the nation, but they must exorcise their demons at Viejas Arena, where they’ve lost seven of their last eight games. 

    Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for New Mexico vs. San Diego State on Friday, February 16. 

    New Mexico vs San Diego State best odds

    New Mexico vs San Diego State picks and predictions

    Both sides bring plenty of heat to this matchup in a game between two quality basketball teams. Current college basketball futures at DraftKings Sportsbook list the San Diego State Aztecs at +210 to win the Mountain West Regular Season title, while the New Mexico Lobos aren’t far behind at +350. 

    Richard Pitino’s Lobos are a trendy early pick to advance far in March thanks to a star-studded starting lineup that can go toe-to-toe with nearly any other in the nation on paper. 

    Star guards Jaelon House (15.6 ppg) and Jamal Mashburn (15.3 ppg) are holdovers from last year’s squad and they’ve been surrounded by two impact newcomers in the frontcourt — freshman JT Toppin (12.4 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2 blocks per game) and Iona transfer Nely Junior Joseph (8.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 1.5 blocks per game). 

    That’s not even to mention the team’s leading scorer and assist man — sophomore Donovan Dent. He’s emerged as arguably the team’s best player while dropping 15.6 points and 5.8 dimes per night as a true point guard. 

    They’ll need every ounce of juice out of their stars on Friday night against the Aztecs, who have won seven of the last eight home games in this matchup. 

    Brian Dutcher’s squad made it to the NCAA Championship game last year, and while this year’s team isn’t quite as fearsome, it certainly is no pushover. Big man Jaedon LeDee is one of the most dominant forces in the country, averaging 20.3 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Reese Dixon-Waters (11.3) and Micah Parrish (10) are the only other players averaging double figures.

    These teams met in Albuquerque on January 13 when the Lobos ran away with an 88-70 victory. Another win on Friday would mark their first regular season sweep of the Aztecs since 2016-17. 

    I’m heading to the player prop market for my best bet between two quality teams. LeDee is listed with a points prop of 19.5, which is too low. 

    First off, he’s playing at home, where he’s been a monster this season. The chiseled senior is averaging 21.6 ppg at Viejas Arena. Secondly, this is a pace-up game against a New Mexico team that wants to get out and run, ranking seventh nationally in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. That should lead to more possessions for the Aztecs and therefore more opportunities for LeDee to stuff the stat sheet. 

    Lastly, this New Mexico defense prioritizes running teams off the 3-point line. The Lobos are holding teams to 30.5% shooting from downtown while opponents are taking just 34.9% of their shots from behind the arc, the 275th-lowest figure nationally. 

    They typically surrender a fair amount of looks in the paint, ranking 200th in near-proximity attempt rate and 272nd in shooting proximity allowed vs. the average opponent, per Haslametrics. LeDee should capitalize on this matchup and I’ll bet on him hurdling the 20 point barrier in Friday night’s big game. 

    My best bet: Jaedon LeDee Over 19.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

    New Mexico vs San Diego State same-game parlay

    Jaedon LeDee Over 19.5 points

    New Mexico +6

    Here’s a two-leg SGP pairing my best bet with New Mexico plus the points. Essentially, it’s a bet on LeDee having a big game but the Lobos keeping pace. 

    Pitino’s squad has been one of the most profitable teams to back in the nation, sitting at an outstanding 17-7 ATS. That stands in stark contrast to SDSU (10-12-1 ATS) as the Aztecs have naturally been slightly overvalued after last year’s incredible NCAA Tournament run. 

    Recent history indicates that SDSU should win yet again at home, but I wouldn’t be surprised if New Mexico at least hangs around and keeps this one close considering this is the most talented Lobos team we’ve seen in quite some time and the pieces are only working together better as the season goes along. 

    They’re an offensive force, averaging 84.1 ppg and featuring three legitimate go-to options in the backcourt. How many college basketball teams can say that? 

    Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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    New Mexico vs San Diego State spread and Over/Under analysis

    This line opened at SDSU -5.5 but has been bet up to -6.5 at most books. The total, meanwhile, has dropped a half-point from 153.5 at open to 152.5 at current. 

    Be sure to track all future fluctuations using our college basketball line movement tool before placing your wager. 

    SDSU went 1-1 during a two-game road trip last week, beating Air Force 77-64 but falling to Nevada 66-70. The Aztecs returned home this Tuesday with an impressive 71-55 win over Colorado State. 

    New Mexico also went 1-1 last week, winning 91-73 at Wyoming but suffering a rare home loss at the hands of UNLV by a score of 77-80. The Lobos are on a two-game road stretch this week, winning the first game 83-82 in Nevada after Mashburn nailed two clutch three-pointers. 

    As for the total, both teams have trended to the Over this year — SDSU is 13-10 O/U while New Mexico is 14-10 O/U. 

    Typically, the pace of play tends to follow the home team, especially if the teams are of a similar caliber. That means that SDSU may look to slow things down here as it ranks just 220th in adjusted tempo and will look to keep New Mexico’s backcourt from lighting up the scoreboard. 

    SDSU has typically played to the Under in this matchup at home, going 1-4 O/U in its last five games against New Mexico at Viejas. The Aztecs have trended to the Under in general in conference play, going 6-14 O/U across their last 20 games against Mountain West opponents. 

    New Mexico vs San Diego State betting trend to know

    New Mexico has allowed an opposing player to score 20 or more points in six of its last eight games. Find more college basketball betting trends for New Mexico vs. San Diego State.

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    New Mexico vs San Diego State game info

    Location: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
    Date: Friday, February 16, 2024
    Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
    TV: FS1

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