Even before the high court releases its final ruling on the future of Roe v. Wade, Democrats have seized on the abortion issue, hoping it will not only galvanize their depressed base, but also allow them to make up lost ground with independents, particularly women.
For this newfound strategy to be successful, though, Democrats will need to overcome two daunting forces:
1) The first midterm election of a president’s term is almost always treacherous for the party in power, and so far there’s been little reason to think 2022 will be much different for Biden’s party.
2) Voters’ perceptions of the economy — and Biden’s handling of it — are only getting worse.
And half of Americans said in the poll that the economy was the most important issue facing the country (which was conducted before the news of the Supreme Court draft opinion).
Rather, Republicans are continuing to hammer Democrats on issues that have been top of mind for a wide swath of the public for months: inflation and the rising costs of gas and other goods. Republicans are confident that focusing on economic issues that directly affect Americans’ daily lives will be more salient to an already fired-up GOP base, as well as independents.
The Point: The economy — inflation specifically — and abortion are emerging as the two dominant issues of the midterm elections. Which issue is a more motivating one for swing voters come November will go a long way in determining if Democrats are still on the path to an electoral wipeout — or whether they can at the very least stem their losses.
