Fantasy Football Rankings Week 3: Sleepers, projections, starts, sits | Tony Jones, Josh Reynolds and more

The first big shakeup has come. Prayers up for Nick Chubb. With Saquon Barkley, Jamaal Williams and more banged-up players making the Week 3 fantasy football rankings more volatile than hoped, it’s time to get to the Week 3 fantasy football game previews, sleepers, plus buys and lows. Oh, and some Spongebob fun this week!

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WEEK 3 FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS

Giants at 49ers

• Giants continue to go baptism by fire for their rookie corners, who allow the second most throws to first reads (76.8%, Bengals first at 77.4%), but they’re middle of the pack for AirYD/TGT and deep throws allowed. Hello, Deebo Samuel (and George Kittle).
• The 49ers defense have just three missed tackles allowed on rushes (third fewest).
• The Giants lead the league in Explosive Run% allowed (8.5% — runs that go for 15+ yards).
• Jalin Hyatt had 21.8% of the Giants’ Air Yards, tied with Darren Waller, despite running just 12 routes and having two targets.

Titans at Browns

• The Titans continue to get destroyed in the passing game with a league-high 11.1 AirYD/ATT, fourth-highest YD/REC (12.2), sixth-friendliest Pass EPA, all while facing a combined lowest ACC% through two weeks (Derek Carr and Justin Herbert Top 10 in OffTGT%).
• Deshaun Watson is behind only Jordan Love in OffTGT% (18.8 to 19.2) but has the highest AirYD/ATT (10.5), just ahead of Tua Tagovailoa (10.2).
• Tyjae Spears has 23.7% of the RB touches — the highest share for a running back alongside Derrick Henry since Dion Lewis in 2018 (outside 2021 when Henry missed eight games).
• Browns lead the league in rush attempts, rush yards and are second to the 49ers (5.60) in YPC (5.39)
• Jerome Ford handled 90% (18 of 20) of the running back touches after Nick Chubb’s injury. That would have tied Brian Robinson for seventh highest in Week 2.

Falcons at Lions

• Despite the share with Tyler Allgeier (46.6% of the RB touches), Bijan Robinson’s 53.4% share has accounted for 25.7% of the Falcons’ total expected fantasy points (fourth most for team RBs behind Tony Pollard, CMC and Henry).
• As mentioned last week, and now reminding you, Jared Goff averaged 21.3 points at home to 11.5 on the road, including 7.7 TD/INT to 1.5 last year. On the road in Week 1, he had 253-1-0, 14.0 points. Last week at home, Goff went 323-3-1, 22.9 points.
• Craig Reynolds is a flier of a play but can easily be a thorn in the side of Jahmyr Gibbs, as the Lions continue to treat Gibbs as more of a pass-catching weapon than potential lead.

Saints at Packers

• Tony Jones is a power back, and Kendre Miller is rather similar to Jamaal Williams. If you’re shooting for upside, Miller is the play, but Jones could easily be the safe points option, as this would be Miller’s debut.
• Michael Thomas has a minimum of five receptions and 49 yards in each of his five games (this year and three games last season).
• Aaron Jones had 55.6% of his runs go for 5+ yards in Week 1, which is tied with Zack Moss for second-most among starting RBs (Bijan Robinson 62.1%).
• Jayden Reed has played nearly exclusively in three-wide (93%) but leads the Packers in targets (13), receptions (6), receiving yards (85), TmAirYD% (31.0) and receiving touchdowns (2).

Broncos at Dolphins

• The Broncos have struggled against the pass through two games with the third-friendliest Pass EPA and highest allowed CPOE (Comp% Over Expectation) for deep throws.
• Raheem Mostert is one of eight running backs with 80%+ of his team’s rush attempts and 70%+ of the total RB touches. He’s Top 20 in Explosive Yards and Top 10 in Touchdown Rate and percent of carries for 10+ yards.
• Russell Wilson has the seventh-lowest OffTGT% (7.6), the Dolphins allow the sixth-highest Accuracy% (57.3) and second-best Catch% (84.0).

Chargers at Vikings

• Of running backs with 10+ carries in Week 2, Joshua Kelley was behind only Najee Harris (70.0%) in Stuffed% (61.5%) — not good.
• Conversely, the Vikings only have a 34.6 Stuff%, second lowest (Dolphins 28.1%).
• Alexander Mattison has seven of his runs in Zone Concept with a solid 57.1 Success%, and the Chargers are the fifth-most favorable to Zone runs — make or break week for Mattison.
• The Chargers are second to the Broncos in CPOE (9.3), have the most favorable Pass EPA, and the second-highest AirYD/ATT (10.2).
• Jordan Addison has 28.8 FPs but just a 72.0 Route% and 11 targets — both fourth. High upside but usage risk.

Patriots at Jets

• After getting 40% of the RB touches in Week 1, Ezekiel Elliott had just 21.7% in Week 2.
• DeVante Parker returned as the No. 1 wideout with 100% routes run. Kendrick Bourne, at 55.3%, still had one more target (nine).
• The Jets are just one of three teams (Steelers, Panthers) without a rush attempt inside the 5-yard line.
• Only Davante Adams has a higher percentage of his team’s first reads at 51.9% than Garrett Wilson (47.8%).

Bills at Commanders

• Brian Robinson is a bellcow with Antonio Gibson an afterthought, accounting for 79.6% and 17.3% of the RB touches, respectively, with four of Gibson’s nine touches being receptions.
• Jahan Dotson goes from 31.8 TmTGT% and 33.1 TmRecYD% in the first quarter to 9.4-11.1-0.0 and 6.5-7.9-0.0 the rest of the game.
• James Cook has 62.7% of the Bills touches but two goal-to-go attempts and zero goal-line rushes while Damien Harris and Latavius Murray have a combined seven and five of those carries, respectively.
• The Commanders are in the top third for favorable Pass EPA matchups and bottom third for least favorable Rush EPA.

Texans at Jaguars

• The Texans offensive line has been decimated by injuries and is 25th in run-blocking grade with zero explosive runs.
• C.J. Stroud leads the league in pass attempts when down by 7+ (78) with Mac Jones second (65). Stroud has a 65.4 Comp%, 7.36 YPA and 8.5 aDOT on these — all Top 10 marks.
• The Texans allow the 10th lowest CPOE (-6.0%) in man coverage versus the second highest in zone (+12.3%). The Chiefs are nearly the exact opposite, hence the Christian Kirk game (which also coincided with Zay Jones missing a portion).

Colts at Ravens

• Zack Moss was the only running back besides Christian McCaffrey to account for 100% of his team’s RB rush attempts and total RB touches.
• Justice Hill out-touched Gus Edwards 14-10 in Week 2 with 3-3-12 receiving to zero receiving opportunities for Edwards. Both had goal-line rush attempts, and Edwards got the touchdown.
• After 90.3 Route% and 47.6 TmTGT% in Week 1, Zay Flowers had 85.0% and 15.2%, and Nelson Agholor led the wideouts in TmTGT% at 18.2.
• Michael Pittman Jr. is sixth in the lead in First Read% at 39.6.

Panthers at Seahawks

• Rachaad White is the only other running back besides Miles Sanders without a single explosive run for running backs with 30+ attempts.
• Ken Walker is Top 10 in percent of his team’s RB touches (72.3%), including seven targets to Zach Charbonnet’s two.
• Jonathan Mingo leads the Panthers in Route% (95.1), TmTGT% (21.0) and TmAirYD% (43.7) even though it’s only resulted in 13-5-43-0.
• Only Zach Wilson has a lower Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt than Bryce Young (2.60 to 2.81), and Young is dead last in Catchable% (63.4).

Bears at Chiefs

• The Chiefs are mid-pack against the run but are sixth toughest in PassEPA, third toughest for wide receivers and allow the fourth lowest percent of drives ending in a touchdown (9.1% — Browns 3.4%, Saints/Cowboys 4.3% tougher). They faced the Lions and Jaguars, which aren’t easy tests.
• Khalil Herbert holds a narrow edge over Roschon Johnson with 43.5% of the RB touches to 38.6% for Johnson.
• No receiver on the Chiefs has more than 10 targets and/or six receptions, and Justin Watson is the only one to top 70 yards so far.

Cowboys at Cardinals

• Cowboys receivers and tight ends only have 47 targets through two games with only CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson having more than five targets. Brandin Cooks is injured, but the Cowboys haven’t needed Dak Prescott to throw much, which shouldn’t change in Week 3.
• James Conner is sixth in TmRuATT% (82.2) and fourth in RB Touch% (80.8). Conner has just two games where he failed to hit double-digits (9.5 and 9.2) when touching the ball 18+ times since 2020.
• Cowboys are fourth toughest in RushEPA, second toughest PassEPA, fourth lowest Adjusted Comp% allowed, and third lowest CPOE allowed.

Steelers at Raiders

• Najee Harris has struggled, but Jaylen Warren has a 0.0% Explosive Run Rate and zero runs of 10+ yards on his nine carries. Harris isn’t much better, but 18.8% ExpRun and three carries of 17+ yards.
• The Raiders have the second most favorable RushEPA. They’re also fourth most favorable in PassEPA.
• Jakobi Meyers missed Week 2, but he and Davante Adams both had a first-read percentage of 43.8% of dropbacks in Week 1. Only Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua are higher.

Eagles at Buccaneers

• As mentioned last week, the Eagles defense is exploitable in the slot and to tight ends. More desperation and DFS plays, but Trey Palmer and Cade Otton are worthy gambles.
• Kenneth Gainwell had 81.8% of the RB touches in Week 1, D’Andre Swift 77.5% in Week 2.
• A.J. Brown is fifth in the league for First Read% (40.6). DeVonta Smith is 34.4% (also a high mark) with Brown having 16-11-108-0 and Smith 15-11-178-2. Buy low window for Brown is now.

Rams at Bengals

• Kyren Williams’ first start came with 100% of the RB rush attempts and 95.2% of the RB total touches.
• Puka Nacua leads the league with 39.3 TmTGT% and is second only to Jakobi Meyers in TGT% for routes run (40.2). Tutu Atwell has a 19.1 TmTGT% and running more than just in the slot with 58.5% out wide.
• Joe Burrow’s injury is cause for concern, especially since you can’t wait for the last game of the week (I ranked him as if he plays and risk he’s not 100%… skills players are with risk he’s ailing or out). You’re starting Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins even with Jake Browning, but you may need a quarterback replacement.

WEEK 3 FANTASY FOOTBALL SLEEPERS

These are sleepers (DuckTales and Darkwing Duck style — Woo-oo is worthy of the risk in most leagues, and Dangerous is if you need a Hail Mary). They will not mimic my rankings 100%. This is about chasing upside and often carries more risk — put simply, they are upside plays you might consider over a solid floor option.

Woo-oo Worthy

• QB: Jared Goff, DET
• RB: Jerome Ford, CLE; Joshua Kelley, LAC
• WR: Zay Jones, JAX; Josh Reynolds, DET
• TE: Zach Ertz, ARI

Let’s Get Dangerous

• QB: Russell Wilson, DEN
• RB: Tony Jones and Kendre Miller, NO
• WR: Robert Woods, HOU
• TE: Taysom Hill, NO

WEEK 3 BUY LOW, SELL HIGH

Buy Low

• Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
• Justin Fields, QB, CHI
• Javonte Williams, RB, DEN
• Josh Jacobs, RB, LV
• A.J. Brown, WR, PHI
• Ja’Marr Chase, WR, CIN
• Jahan Dotson, WR, WSH

Sell High

• Kirk Cousins, QB, MIN
• Russell Wilson, QB, DEN
• Raheem Mostert, RB, MIA
• D’Andre Swift, RB, PHI
• Jordan Addison, WR, MIN
• Nico Collins, WR, HOU
• Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI

FUN WITH RANKINGS!

This comes from my wife’s son. We randomly started talking about some of the great Spongebob songs, and we debated which was best, and now, here we are.

Top 10 Spongebob Songs, Ever!

1. Sweet Victory
   
2. Goofy Goober Rock
   
3. F.U.N. Song
   
4. Ripped Pants
   
5. Gary’s Song
   
6. The Campfire Song Song
   
7. The Best Day Ever
   
8. The Krusty Krab Pizza
   
9. The Very First Christmas
   
10. Doing the Sponge
    

Honorable Mention
Now That We’re Men

WEEK 3 FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These can differ from my rankings, and my ranks are the order I’d start players outside of added context, such as, “Need highest upside, even if risky.” Also, based on 4-point TDs for QB, 6-point rest, and Half-PPR

Download Link Added Thursday

WEEK 3 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨

• There is no perfect widget out there, sadly, still. I know many view this on your phone, but 1) use the rankings widget on a PC/laptop/etc. if possible or 2) open in your phone’s browser, especially for Android users, to get the scrolling to properly work.
• Updated regularly, so check up to lineups locking.

 (Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images)