Most of my conversations around the NFL this past week centered on coach and general manager firings that are expected to go down early Monday. We’ll get to that in a minute.
Over the past 10 years, when I was a television reporter on air with this information, I never had an opportunity to express to those watching that digging up intel on whether someone was about to be fired can be insensitive and sad for many reasons, specifically for those families.
Most coaches will tell you it’s a performance-based business they willingly signed up for. They know if you don’t win in this league, you won’t last. However, it still stinks to lose a job.
Now it is my job to find out and share with you what I’m hearing, so let’s get to it.
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The conversations around the league during the last month have really changed. Around Thanksgiving, it seemed that there could be a record number of firings, but better performances saved some jobs, and in one case organizational fear of getting it wrong again saved a coach and his staff.
I still expect there to be multiple firings Monday and maybe one or two more during the playoffs.
It’s all centered around New England …
Robert Kraft has a big decision to make on the future of Bill Belichick. The 71-year-old Belichick wants to keep coaching, he still can coach, and the players in New England are still playing hard. After a season filled with so much talk about the end of the Belichick era, along with reports of the Kraft family being open to change, here’s what I know from conversations with multiple league sources:
• There is a meeting set for next week between owner Robert Kraft, Jonathan Kraft and Belichick.
• There are some who work for the team who are expecting changes and have started to put out feelers about jobs elsewhere.
• There are other organizations, like the Commanders and Raiders, hoping to get a chance to meet with Belichick. There are more teams in the shadows, but that will depend on outcomes from Week 18 games and playoff results.
• There has been chatter for months that if the Patriots part ways with Belichick, Houston Texans general manager Nick Caserio, a former longtime member of the personnel brain trust in New England, would want an opportunity to return to the Patriots as their general manager. But based on my conversations with league sources, Houston is where the 48-year-old wants to be.
Why would Caserio want to leave the Texans after leading the way in drafting a star-studded rookie class led by quarterback C.J. Stroud? He also hired DeMeco Ryans in 2023, and the relationship is flourishing. Caserio is on his way to building something special, and he wants to stick around to chase after his seventh Super Bowl ring, this time with the Texans.
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Ron Rivera has worn many hats in Washington during his four years as head coach. At different times he seemed to be playing the part of owner, general manager, public relations official and head coach. After serving in all of those roles, on Monday he might not have one. I was told by league sources that Rivera and his staff are well aware his time in Washington is coming to an end.
Though this season started with promise, new owner Josh Harris began discussions in search of a new head coach and general manager a few weeks back, according to a league source. The Commanders are keeping an eye on what happens in New England while hoping to hire a general manager first before landing their next head coach.
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The Chargers are casting a wide net, and that means looking at every option. I’ve been told by a league source they prefer to hire someone who has head coach experience and are hoping to avoid a first-time head coach. Does that mean potential head coaches like Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson or Miami Dolphins offensive coordinator Frank Smith are out of the running? No, not if ownership can be convinced.
University of Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh, who recently hired NFL agent Don Yee (who represents both Tom Brady and Sean Payton), is a top candidate for Los Angeles. We’ll see how aggressive the Spanos family will get and if they are the first team to get Harbaugh on the phone after Monday’s College Football Playoff championship game.
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Even if owner Mark Davis wanted to hire Antonio Pierce, he can’t officially make him the head coach right after the Raiders’ final game Sunday. Ownership is required to interview at least two external candidates who are minorities to abide by the NFL’s Rooney Rule. The player endorsements for Pierce have been strong the last few weeks, and it’s apparent he has the locker room’s trust. Does this help? Sometimes. Does it get you the job? Not always.
Davis has always made it known that a team in Las Vegas needs a star coach. Harbaugh is very much atop his list, as is Belichick if he leaves New England. If you recall, Davis wanted to hire Harbaugh in 2015 before the coach took the Michigan job.
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Falcons owner Arthur Blank and head coach Arthur Smith have always had a healthy, communicative relationship. They’ve had three years together, and on Sunday they have a chance to get into the playoffs with a win against the New Orleans Saints and some help from the Carolina Panthers. Smith has a six-year deal with the Falcons and has helped in the rebuilding of the roster, but they are still missing the most important piece — quarterback.
This season Blank has been unhappy with losing and inconsistent play at the QB position. He has been publicly noncommittal on the future of his head coach, and after an offseason that produced a reloaded defense and tons of highly drafted offensive players, he has reasons to be frustrated.
Internally, the sense is the staff will get another shot at this, but 81-year-old Blank isn’t getting any younger. He wants to win now. He has had conversations with people around the league that lead me to believe he’s tempted to make the move. Keep an eye out for Blank to take a big swing for Belichick too if he moves on from Smith. This isn’t a rebuild in Atlanta anymore.
Owner David Tepper is going to try again for Ben Johnson, according to a league source. The play-caller is open to the job and will also be meeting with other teams that are expected to show interest, the source said. There’s a sense around the league that general manager Scott Fitterer may help with some of the transition but still may not be safe in his job. Carolina could be starting anew.
The Saints staff has been operating the last few weeks as if Dennis Allen is going to stay on as head coach. Allen appears to be safe, but in conversations with league sources, I’d expect there to be changes made to some of the staff.
Team CEO/president Kevin Warren has been watching, taking notes and evaluating his head coach and team all season. Though ownership will have the final say on the future of Matt Eberflus and staff, Warren will have a strong hand in the decision. Warren recently shared that he appreciates the energy of the team around Halas Hall but offered no endorsements of his head coach.
So what can we expect from Warren? He hasn’t made any knee-jerk decisions this season, giving the staff the entire regular season to show they are the right group. He’s described as methodical. Unemotional. A planner. His decisions are all being made with a long-term approach, so while Sunday’s game against the Green Bay Packers feels huge for the staff and quarterback Justin Fields, I don’t believe one game is going to move the needle either way.
Before I let you go …
Dallas Cowboys players were told this week they cannot make the same mistake the Patriots made in 2019 in their regular-season finale against a divisional opponent. Here’s the situation:
The Cowboys can clinch the NFC East and lock in the NFC’s No. 2 seed with a win Sunday against the 14-point underdog Commanders in Washington. Though Dallas fans shouldn’t be worried about a Washington team led by Sam Howell, they can’t overlook the Commanders. This is where the Patriots come in.
In 2019, the Patriots were 14-point favorites over the Dolphins at home, looking to lock up the AFC East against a Miami team with not much to play for. But New England lost, then hosted a wild-card game against the Tennessee Titans the next week. It lost that game, too, and Tom Brady never played for the Patriots again. According to a league source, the message to the Cowboys this week was, “We can’t squander the No. 2 seed.”
If that happens? I would add Mike McCarthy to my list of coaches in trouble.
While I am breaking Larry David’s very strict rule that you can’t say Happy New Year after Jan. 3, Happy New Year! Have a great 2024 filled with good health, love and passion for life.
(Photo of Ron Rivera and Bill Belichick: Matthew J. Lee / The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
