Sunday, November 05, 2023
Yep, this tasty “Sunday Political Brunch” arrives on November 5, 2023, but next year is Leap Year, so we jump two days ahead. That means Election Day 2024, falls right on 11-5-2024. There is so much happening right now, and in the months ahead, so let’s “brunch” on that this week.
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“A Sixpence for a ‘Pence?’” – I guess that’s my “cute” way of trying to evaluate the exit from this race by former Trump Vice President Mike Pence. Pence and his old boss had a major falling out after the January 6th assault on the Capitol, where Pence had a crucial Constitutional role in certifying the Electoral College vote, which unseated him and President Trump. Despite people chanting “Hang Mike Pence,” he did his job. I hope decent, honest people on both sides of the aisle will remember that. He chose the U.S. Constitution over his boss’s demands.
“Where Do the Pence Voters Go?” – In the overall Real Clear Politics composite poll of all presidential polling since last November, Pence scored a cumulative average of just 3.4 percent. He did score as high as 18 percent in a February 2023 Harris Poll, but he just never gained much traction. And the last time he polled in double digits was a 10 percent result in August. So, what happens to his supporters? And does he endorse another candidate? Sure, an additional four percent of voters might help Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida, or former Gov. Nikki Haley (R) South Carolina, but both are so far behind Trump’s 59 percent average polling, that it’s hard to see a dent. I do think that once four or five more people drop out, they and Pence will then endorse someone.
“U.S. Senate ‘Tricks and Treats’” – We just celebrated Halloween week, and I am in the middle of the biggest (and some would say the spookiest and scariest U.S. Senate race in the nation). Since we still don’t know what Sen. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia will do in 2024, we are left to watch the nasty GOP primary between Gov. Jim Justice (R) West Virginia and Rep. Alex Mooney (R) West Virginia. Mooney’s campaign manager, John Findlay, sent out a Halloween press release saying, “Jim Justice would be a scary choice for the Senate in West Virginia.” Findlay added, “From supporting Biden’s reckless spending policies to pushing the largest tax hike in West Virginia’s history, Justice is full of tricks and no treats.” But even more scary for Mooney are recent polls showing Justice ahead of the Congressmen, by 62 to 23 percent. The race is the most critical for which party controls the U.S. Senate after 2024.
“House Departures” – While Republicans look poised to seize control of the U.S. Senate next year, they could also be poised to losing control of the U.S. House. As the GOP hangs on a slim, four-vote majority, newly announced departures are foreboding. Rep. Ken Buck (R) Colorado is not seeking reelection after serving five terms. In video he released Buck said, “Too many Republican leaders are lying to America, claiming that the 2020 election was stolen, describing January 6 as an unguided tour of the Capitol, and asserting that the ensuing prosecutions are a weaponization of our justice system.” While Buck was a hardliner on issues such as border security, he said of voters, “their hope for Republicans to take decisive action maybe in vain.”
“Donald, Jr. & Eric Trump on the Stand” – It’s weird to see two sons testify in a case which could convict their own dad. But that’s where Eric Trump and Donald Trump, Jr. found themselves this week, in a New York City courtroom. Their dad is accused of inflating the value of his real estate empire to gain greater loan deals with lenders. Were the Trump properties worth mere millions, or was it just billions? The higher the valuation, the better the loan terms is the accusations. The sons stood by their dad and blamed any “inflation” values on their accounting staff. “So, I trust in Allen Weisselberg, who is an accountant. I trust Mazars, who is a CPA and a Big Five accounting firm to put together a document of this nature.” Adding, “These people had an incredible, intimate knowledge and I relied on them,” he added later.
“The Legal Analysis” – I am not a lawyer, although I have tried cases “in pro-se” in municipal, state, and federal court and won all three times. I have logged thousands of hours in local, state and federal courts covering news stories while keeping a keen eye on jurors. I don’t think any one of these cases, on its own merits, knocks Donald Trump out of the White House. So, if he loses his civil case in New York for overvaluing property, who cares? Or, if he loses an election’s challenge in Colorado, who cares? But if he loses both of the those and at least one of the criminal cases in Georgia, or in federal court, does there begin to be a “landslide” effect. That’s what I am suggesting. A string of these unrelated cases must have a cumulative effect, or else he’ll sit in the Oval Office again.
“Biden is Vulnerable, too!” – While I paint a dark forecast for the Republican Party, Democrats, including President Biden, have their potholes, too. Last week, little-known Rep. Dean Phillips (D) Minnesota, announced he was running for president after three terms in the House. While pledging party loyalty, Phillips is trying to forge a balancing act saying, Biden “has done a spectacular job” as president, but the party “needs to look to the future” to ensure it can defeat former President Donald Trump. I think both parties have the same dilemma. 2024 is about each party’s future, and not its past. Phillips, who inherited a small family business and helped turn it into a fortune, has a classic American “rags to riches” story that’s worth keeping an eye on.
“Speaker Speaks on Biden” – He’s barely held the gavel for a week, but now Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R) Louisiana is being asked to weigh-in on the possible impeachment of President Biden. “I do believe that very soon we are coming to a point of decision on it.”
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.
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