Sunday, December 18, 2022
It was one of those weeks in the political world where there was not a common theme or thread. All kinds of unconnected things were going on. It was kind of a political Smorgasbord. Let’s “brunch” on that this week!
“You No Love Me No More?” – A USA Today/Suffolk University Poll out this week was jaw-dropping. The majority of the country does not want Donald Trump to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024. And a CNN poll says 62 percent of Republicans don’t want Trump to be the nominee, and 59 percent of Democrats don’t want Joe Biden back. I’ve covered every presidential campaign since Carter-Reagan-Anderson in 1980 and have never seen anything like this before. Many voters view both men as too old, and too out of touch with the mainstream of their respective parties.
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“So, Who’s Next?” – The alternatives are more clear-cut in the Republican party right now, compared to the Democrats. According to the Suffolk Poll, 56 percent of Republicans and conservative independents prefer Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida, to 33 percent for Trump. That’s telling. The Democrats are far more scattered and perhaps unfocused on a Biden alternative. Five percent preferred Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, while four percent picked Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) California, with four percent also for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) Vermont. Three percent chose Vice President Kamala Harris. Folks, that means only 16 percent of a divided Democrat Party have made a choice beyond Biden. Wow, but again, it is early!
“The Impact of a Crowded Field” – On the GOP side, my guess is that this will not be strictly a Trump-DeSantis contest. I think former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gets in, as well as former Vice President Mike Pence. One-time U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, will get in, too. Former Gov. John Kasich (R) Ohio will offer himself as a more moderate option, with fiscal expertise. Ex-Gov. Jeb Bush (R) Florida would love to be a spoiler. And I don’t think you can ever write off Sen. Ted Cruz (R) Texas. That’s eight candidates I’ve named. Do you realize in an eight-person field, all things being fairly close, a person can with the nomination with just 12.6 percent of the vote. Really! Do the math, (and show your work).
“Dicing up the Democrats” – I can’t imagine eight candidates in the Democrat primaries unless Biden chooses not to seek a second term. Then, all bets are off, and you could have an equally crowded field. The big picture is this: if it does come down to a Biden-Trump rematch, the Suffolk Poll says 47.3 percent of respondents choose Biden and 40 percent choose Trump. So, neither has a clear-cut majority or path to victory and it once again will come down to the independent voters. I predicted in this column months ago that neither Trump nor Biden will be on the November 2024 ballot. Just a gut feeling on my part.
“Same-Sex Marriage” – There was other significant political news in Washington, DC this week. On Tuesday, President Biden signed the Respect for Marriage Act into law. It codifies a 2015 U.S. Supreme Court decision that ruled same-sex marriages were legal. Of course, as we saw this year in the high court’s overturn of Roe v. Wade that legalized abortion, Supreme Court decisions can be changed. With Congress and the president codifying same-gender unions into law, the Supreme Court would be hard pressed to overturn that. Andrew Schneider, with the LGBTQ rights group Fairness West Virginia was at the White House bill signing and said,
“I’m extremely excited about it and I’m extremely honored to be invited to this historic event… which allowed for marriage equality in this country.”
“January 6th Committee” – The Chairman of the House January 6th Committee, Rep Benny Thompson (D) Mississippi says the final meeting of the committee will be this Monday, December 19, with the full report, including criminal referrals to the Justice Department, on Wednesday, December 21. Various reports indicate President Trump, and his lawyer Rudy Giuliani will be among those recommended for criminal charges. We’ll see. As I’ve pointed out before, referrals don’t guarantee indictment so a lot of this may be political theatre. On the other hand, with this same Justice Department considering potential criminal charges against presidential son Hunter Biden, all bets are off.
“Keeping the Government Funded” – Hold the Christmas cards between the likely incoming House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R) California and current Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) Kentucky. McConnell signaled a deal to pass an Appropriations Committee bill this week to keep the government funded. Not so fast, said McCarthy. He wants the GOP to dig in its heels in the House and wait until he takes the gavel from Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D) California on January 3rd. The two leaders have been on opposing sides of bills to deal with a nationwide railroad strike, helping fund Ukraine fight Russia, the infrastructure bill, and gun rights. This could get ugly come January.
“Manchin Compassion” – I love politics, though many disdain it as an impersonal business. Not always. This past week, my eldest sister Tracy sadly died suddenly at the age of 67. Tuesday my phone rang. When I answered, all I heard was, “Mark, it’s Joe Manchin. I am so sorry to hear about your sister Tracy. If we can do anything just ask.” Three years ago, he made the same call when my youngest sister Katie died. Look, he’s a busy, busy U.S. Senator, dealing with all the important matters mentioned above. He doesn’t have to do this, yet he does. It was simply a gesture of personal kindness.
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.
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